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ST & IT LONG, grinding higher, potential BULL TRAP


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#11 robo

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 11:00 AM

 

SENTIMENT TRADER says up & away:

 

Survey says…buy!

Near the end of December, pessimism was hitting its practical maximum in some of our indicators and models, including the AIM Model of surveys. It has fully recovered since then, and will rise to 80% this week, the highest since early 2018.

1554476325573.jpg

Like many other studies that look at a fully cycle of sentiment, this one shows relatively weak returns in the medium-term, but fairly strong ones longer-term.

Good times

More than 200 junk bonds set a 52-week high than set a 52-week low this week, the most in two years. Since the recovery from the financial crisis, the high-low differential has been this positive on only 40 total days. According to the Backtest Engine, funds like HYG struggled a bit over the next couple of weeks.

Optimistic money managers

According to the NAAIM survey of active investment managers, the average manager is more than 90% exposed to stocks. This is not your typical contrary survey, though. When managers were more than 90% for the first time in at least four months, two months later the S&P 500 was higher 6 out of 6 times. 

https://www.sentimen...s-from-a-plunge

 

LOL.... So did Jason buy and add to his current position?


“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 11:04 AM

I really don't trade GAPS, mainly because there are easier ways to make a decision to trade long or short.....

 

@kpak82
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$SPX approaching some shortable levels. 1st stop is prior double top b/d level where we should see some reaction. Regardless, I wouldnt be long here until 10dma has chance to catch up.

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12:13 AM - 7 Apr 2019


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 11:09 AM

@WallStJesus
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The last time we had similar sentiment readings as we have now & HF had to scramble for exposure was December 2017 .. and we all remember what took place then & how that turned out once they were officially "all in" come Jan18

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3:12 PM - 6 Apr 2019

Gonna have one, or two, or... to celebrate a really IMPORTANT DAY!

 

@Stephanieranktv
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Happy #NATIONALBEERDAY 1f37a.pngcelebrate accordingly (and responsibly)!

https://twitter.com/...910651409891328

 
 
 
8:19 AM - 7 Apr 2019 from Tallahassee, FL

Edited by dTraderB, 07 April 2019 - 11:11 AM.


#14 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 12:16 PM

This upswing in strong...  I have my long term and short term trading signals...   My Long Term ( Strength ) indicators are showing 11 of 12 a current buy.....  This is considered super strong upward momentum...    Short term indicators showing overbought of the market is at -4 showing short term the market is  mildly overbought, but the long term strength outlook overwealms my short term indicators so we should continue to stay long here....   I don't see a Bull Trap here....   



#15 robo

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Posted 07 April 2019 - 12:22 PM

"Short term indicators showing overbought of the market is at -4 showing short term the market is  mildly overbought, but the long term strength outlook overwealms my short term indicators so we should continue to stay long here"

 

The Dumb Money loves stocks and the Smart Money is selling to them. The current indicators are a warning indicator NOT to be holding leverage long positions, but NO SELL signal yet....

 

Long VXF and GDXJ, but VXF has a High Risk/Reward level again.....  Waiting to buy VXXB once I sell VXF..... The historical odds indicates next week is normally positive - as is April overall, so the Dumb Money data moved up again Friday.... 

 

Good Trading next week!

 

https://stockcharts....m=1&a=657032944

 

Long GDXJ

 

https://stockcharts....673&a=657033733


Edited by robo, 07 April 2019 - 12:28 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#16 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2019 - 08:16 AM

 

 

SENTIMENT TRADER says up & away:

 

Survey says…buy!

Near the end of December, pessimism was hitting its practical maximum in some of our indicators and models, including the AIM Model of surveys. It has fully recovered since then, and will rise to 80% this week, the highest since early 2018.

1554476325573.jpg

Like many other studies that look at a fully cycle of sentiment, this one shows relatively weak returns in the medium-term, but fairly strong ones longer-term.

Good times

More than 200 junk bonds set a 52-week high than set a 52-week low this week, the most in two years. Since the recovery from the financial crisis, the high-low differential has been this positive on only 40 total days. According to the Backtest Engine, funds like HYG struggled a bit over the next couple of weeks.

Optimistic money managers

According to the NAAIM survey of active investment managers, the average manager is more than 90% exposed to stocks. This is not your typical contrary survey, though. When managers were more than 90% for the first time in at least four months, two months later the S&P 500 was higher 6 out of 6 times. 

https://www.sentimen...s-from-a-plunge

 

LOL.... So did Jason buy and add to his current position?

 

don't know but he is a smart trader 
In this market, you go to trade as we do  -- in and out, go with the flow
I have long given up on holding Futures overnight positions since the very nature of the market has changed trmendously and 

as I get older I want less stress and worry about overnight Futures positions

But, others have their methods etc, good luck to all, but most of all to ME!



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2019 - 08:16 AM

Relatively quiet morning as Q1 earnings season starts this week

 

Even the Pound GBP is quiet. 



#18 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2019 - 10:02 AM

one round trip, so far today: down, then up to where we started. I'll take that so long as each leg is at least 15 NQ points  

 

David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie
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The front cover of Barron's. How perfect. The makings of a market top.

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5:36 AM - 8 Apr 2019

 



#19 dTraderB

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Posted 08 April 2019 - 03:12 PM

The Grind continues, SPX 2900 next target, 

But, note the VIX and VXXB are still not getting down to the lows see at the record highs.

 

However, if you daytrade NQ there is no way you want to do much shorting since every minor pullback is bought. 

 

After initial weakness, the market recovered nicely, a few pullbacks, but moving ahead with higher intraday highs during the afternoon 

session

 

Yes, it is losing momentum, you feel as if the newbie naive retail crowd are rushing in but unless a previous day's low is taken out then ST & IT UP trend are not at risk, at least not as yet.