9 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

So, my take on this is that we have a deeply strong economy. I suspect that this is no where near fully discounted and in fact, very strong earnings are coming. I think that we need to keep one eye on capacity utilization, however.

[SemiBizz]

Nowhere near Amazing... market is already priced for perfection... and we are STILL LIVING on BORROWED TIME/MONEY...

 

Debts beyond current combined Global Fiscal capacity to pay it...

 

And that unemployment graph is sure going to look different over the next few years... jobs are being destroyed faster than they are created on a global basis...

[SemiBizz]

Looking at economic statistics is fine, but that's not what the market trades on and I have proof...

 

Start with the notion that in the first quarter that mutual fund redemptions were declining as the markets raced higher.

 

Markets don't trade on those investors any more... they trade on technicals aided by the new fund flows from Central Bankers and Corporate Buybacks... and the money goes to the market and dies... there's no multiplier effects.. and techniques are employed like VIX suppression...Which sort of "Supercharges" rallies by literally suppressing sellers by continual robot races to take prices higher, mostly on "synthetics" like spoofing... it all works until VIX blows up like it did in Feb 2018...

 

So all those facts and figures are great, but when there is an infinite supply of fresh central banker fiat and greedy executives use the corporate savings to enhance their own pockets... we are going to get further and further away from any reality of "economics" and their effects on markets...

[SemiBizz]

BTW, should have said accelerating redemptions above..

 

Amazing?  I'll show you amazing, it's what is going through these bankers minds...

 

Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

 

 

"How low can you go?

In a cashless world, there would be no lower bound on interest rates. A central bank could reduce the policy rate from, say, 2 percent to minus 4 percent to counter a severe recession. The interest rate cut would transmit to bank deposits, loans, and bonds. Without cash, depositors would have to pay the negative interest rate to keep their money with the bank, making consumption and investment more attractive. This would jolt lending, boost demand, and stimulate the economy.

When cash is available, however, cutting rates significantly into negative territory becomes impossible. Cash has the same purchasing power as bank deposits, but at zero nominal interest. Moreover, it can be obtained in unlimited quantities in exchange for bank money. Therefore, instead of paying negative interest, one can simply hold cash at zero interest. Cash is a free option on zero interest, and acts as an interest rate floor."

 

[Data]

April is historically a bullish month.   Quarterly and annual tax receipts are paid close to the tax deadline, and the receipts exceed the government outlays, sometimes by as much as 100+ billion dollars.   As a result, the Treasury uses the excess cash to pay down debt which helps boost financial markets.  

[Dex]

I think it is priced in also.

 

 

OIL and IRAN conflict is not priced in!

[slupert]

ya generally don't see capacity utilization numbers swend an inflation signal until it reaches the 80's, I was thinking contradictory to your thoughts Mark. Today's markets are so efficient you mkght not see concer over capacity utilization until mid eighties , only at 78 now. And ths is a number that generally does not have dramatic swings to it.(JMHO)

https://www.federalr...ent/default.htm

[Dex]

ya generally don't see capacity utilization numbers swend an inflation signal until it reaches the 80's, I was thinking contradictory to your thoughts Mark. Today's markets are so efficient you mkght not see concer over capacity utilization until mid eighties , only at 78 now. And ths is a number that generally does not have dramatic swings to it.(JMHO)

https://www.federalr...ent/default.htm

 

 

I don't think USA only utilization is the key number in today's world.  You have to look at the world or an industry in the world e.g. steel production.  

[da_cheif]

oh geeziz...10 yrs and 10000 pts and ur all still at it.........lmao

[alexnewbee]

that is why tax receipts are collapsing?