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AAII 67% out of the mkt


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#1 da_cheif

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Posted 25 April 2019 - 07:31 AM

 AAII Survey Results for Week Ending 4/24/2019
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
?
BULLISH
33.5%
-4.0 Percentage point
change from
last week



#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 25 April 2019 - 08:40 AM

Chart
http://schrts.co/sWiSbfKF


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#3 Douglas

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 01:16 AM

Don, do you have any insight as to why AAII has remained so steadfastly bearish?  The participants of some other sentiment surveys have embraced the bull with some short term ones sporting current readings in the high 80% bullish.  What is it about the membership of the American Association of Individual Investors that makes participates in their survey so bearish?  Membership only costs $29, so it should have a broad spectrum of both smart and dumb money participants.

 

My record of AAII only goes back to Dec 1996.  Both the lowest bear reading (8.3%) and highest bull reading (75%) in my database date back to the end of the 2000 bull market.  The highest bull reading I have recorded since the low in 2009 was 59.8% almost a year and a half ago with the lowest bearish reading of 15.6% about the same time just before the 2018 correction began.  It appears the participants in this survey were so damaged by the 2000 and then 2007 bear markets that they never recovered and now have a "permanent" bearish bias.  Record low corp taxes, record high DJIA and a ten year bull market, all this and amazingly low negative real interest rates from a FED that prints money like there is no tomorrow haven't been able to shake their fear.  I'm not sure what will.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 da_cheif

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 05:38 AM

douglas.....great question......it was all so predictable....8 years ago

 

..

 

To: The-Democrat who wrote (63285) 3/30/2011 7:30:56 PM From: da_cheif™ 1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 126222   amazing??? not quite......but...alas .....to the unwashed i suppose it is.....in fact i KNOW it is.........and the nose bleeds and fear of heights will rise dramaticly in the weeks and months ahead in this coming once in a lifetime tsunami of stock prices

 

 

 

douglas u have to remember that during the last 10 years memories of the results of any large advance.have been fresh in investors minds and kept that  way by the medias constant trucking out of bearish analysts.....thus since investors have no knowledge of how they are led by the nose to accept what they hear as gospel it is no wonder the unwashed remain skeptical of the future course of the markets upward slope.....it was thus for years after 29 74  87 .....and now 2009   ..rinse wash repeat....only the the old and experienced like me saw the whole long term picture well in advance as i made it my life to understand what drove the likes of eliades. prechter. granville. russell and many many others to belong to the majority of fearful analysts.........that is why so few made it to the top of K2. fear of heights and nose bleeds .....that analogy is reinforced daily by those who are taught to believe that even tho things get better and better as the decades recede most have been focused on the perceived negatives by the propaganda machine of the exchange and their insiders.....the financial press.....that is why those that are in charge live in such huge houses compared to the rest.....they laff their arses off at the unwashed all the way to the bank.....thinking like a krimnal has led me  to being a very successful bull.  675ono ...watch the sky .....and all that stuff......  as for sentiment  look at this chart of the long term bull bear ratio from investors intell..  https://screenshotscdn.firefoxusercontent.com/images/b39500cb-fc68-4ff8-8d92-9a543143b2b8.png  ...and what unfolded between the big dips in bullish sentiment     ....most hated the market at the bottom....called the subsequent turn a bear market rally.....then now calling the  chart a negative divergence....years of wasted effort by the majority ....few if any made a dime on the advance if they had known what they were doing........such is the plan of those who control j6p.s financial destiny



#5 CLK

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 07:13 AM

Every new high/breakout getting smashed is not exactly a good sign.



#6 CLK

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 07:15 AM

Anybody ever notice you can short highs safely with a 1 point stop but you need 10-20 to buy the dip ?



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

Every new high/breakout getting smashed is not exactly a good sign.

if u inhaled all ur life u would die ....breath in breath out is the staff of life

 

https://www.tradingv...com/x/zK0c9qJN/



#8 CLK

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 08:58 AM

Polls were a fade yesterday and again today, no shorts.



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 09:15 AM

Every new high/breakout getting smashed is not exactly a good sign.

smashed???   lol



#10 CLK

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Posted 26 April 2019 - 04:53 PM

Chief,

Bears got to me today finally. Yes, I see the long term is up, but you are probably shorting the small contract on every new swing high. I don't have the capital to buy and hold ES, so I am forced next best and 3-9 months out of the money SPX and leap puts on bear funds. Time is not on my side, but so far I am up about 10 % and looking to 10x at 3300. There are a lot of scalpers out there that do ok long and short, but have no idea what they are doing long term, yes the 2000,2007 and 2018 are keeping them bearish, probably looking at 15k SPX over the next 10 years.