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Fearless Forecast: SPX 3000, soon, then 10% down


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:40 AM

Firstly, let me let all know I HATE WINDOWS 10 and their stupid and potentially catastrophic updates.

 

One of my laptops did not reboot after a weekend update and I spent hours trying to get it up & running.

 

Anyway, I got a laugh from an analyst who is now predicting SPX 3000! Will not call names because I do not want to put 

this esteemed Traders-Talk site in trouble. But, seriously, SPX 3000 is a big deal with the market 2% away? 

 

I am rethinking the 2 to 3% rally I expected after the historic high was reached but there us still APPLE earning, the FED, the NFM report, and the long running TRADE TALKS saga, so there is still potential for a rally to SPX 2050.

 

A rally is a rally, no matter how ugly, no matter if it is not logical, no matter if not supported by sentiment and fundamentals, but such rallies are at the final stages when they struggle to get more participation. I am talking my book,, but putting that caveat aside, I expect a blowoff and then at least 10% down.

 

OddStats @OddStats
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The S&P 500 $SPX sets a new all time high. The bear market is officially dead; a meaningless statement with literally no ramifications whatsoever.

6:32 AM - 29 Apr 2019

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:44 AM

S&P Futures dropped a few points after this but then recovered overnight

 

There are FIVE FED speakers scheduled on Friday ....the day the NFM report is released. 

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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CHINA APRIL MANUFACTURING PMI AT 50.1; EST. 50.5

6:07 PM - 29 Apr 2019

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:46 AM

FactSetVerified account @FactSet
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$SPX is reporting lowest net profit margin (10.9%) in Q1 2019 since Q4 2017 (10.5%). http://ow.ly/hLH050sq4yk 

D5WIvEsWwAE5Xu0.png
1:01 PM - 29 Apr 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:48 AM

Ha ha ! Tom rubbishes SELL IN MAY 

 

Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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Tom McClellan Retweeted Jason Zweig

No, it's actually helpful to have it continue right now. At the point when that message changes to being about how "sell in May" is different this time, that's when we get the seasonal top. And then when it again changes back to, "See, sell in May works", that will be the bottom.

Tom McClellan added,

Jason ZweigVerified account @jasonzweigwsj
I've received two "Sell in May and Go Away" emails in the past hour alone. Make it stop.
2:40 PM - 29 Apr 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:52 AM

S&P Futures just went green on the day....not going long here, as yet.

 

I am LONG VXXB, will add a lot or two if it trades with a 24 handle

 

"contrarian trading against the contrarian logic"

 

Nice article from Sentiment Trader:

 

Overplaying VIX-mageddon

Traders have been shorting the heck out of volatility, and that's upsetting the contrarian in all of us. "Look out for a repeat of the VIX-mageddon!" from early last year, we're warned.

That's probably being overplayed.

https://www.sentimen...g-vix-mageddon/



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:56 AM

Holding steady just below EXTREME GREED, not surprising since most people are holding their LONGS but there is less 

new money coming into the market, hence less volume,

 

https://money.cnn.co...fear-and-greed/

 

Dawdling near the zero line, going nowhere real fast

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/

 

McClellanOsc_530.gif

https://www.marketin...lume-oscillator



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 05:57 AM

Tom thinks the rally has room to run...

 

Lofty RASI Says Uptrend Is Not Done Yet

 

RASI_April2019.gif

https://www.mcoscill...s_not_done_yet/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 06:04 AM

When you earn hundreds of billions it is hard to grow at double-digit rates, forever...

 

 

Charlie BilelloVerified account @charliebilello
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Revenue Growth, year-over-year (%)...

$FB: +26% (slowest in company history)

$AMZN: +17% (slowest since Q1 2015)

$NFLX: +22% (slowest since Q2 2013)

$GOOGL: +17% (slowest since Q3 2015)

 

2019 Returns... $FB: +49% $AMZN: +29% $NFLX: +39% $GOOGL: +24%

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8:00 PM - 29 Apr 2019


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 06:07 AM

Watch the RUT

 

hedgopia @hedgopia
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Should $RUT decisively reclaim 1600, it can set in motion risk-on N/T. M/T to L/T, bears likely will have last laugh. $VIX https://hedgopia.com/non-commercials-record-bet-on-lower-vix-could-get-vindicated-n-t-if-russell-2k-reclaims-1600/ 

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5:05 AM - 29 Apr 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 30 April 2019 - 06:08 AM

Can't put up a chart from my laptops because I don't want to disturb after a hellish day with Windows 10 update Sunday into Monday ..... but 

 

there are minor divergences on hourly VIX chart