16 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

So much for TRADE DEAL almost done. 

Good negotiating strategy by Trump but the Chinese can wait this one out - the "advantage" of a dictatorial regime that has no election clock ticking. 
N Korea has also started firing missiles - not a coincidence, and it is fairly obvious by now that the Russia/China/N Korea trioka have been colluding against the US. Ultimately, the US will win but it could get dam rocky in the interim. 

 

Unless this tariff announcement is pulled, expect the markets to stumble; not a crash but a decline to at least SPX 2850. What happens after that will depend on new announcements on the exciting TRADE DEAL SAGA. 

 

Technically, the markets are strong but markets usually fall when they are at relatively high levels, DUH. 

 

 

Bloomberg‏Verified account @business

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BREAKING: Trump says 10% China tariffs will rise to 25% on Friday

 

https://www.bloomber...to-25-on-friday

 

[dTraderB]

Douglas Kass‏Verified account @DougKass

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Positioning? Not a soul is short Mr. Market. @tomkeene @jimcramer

9:51 AM - 5 May 2019 from West Palm Beach, FL

 

 

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

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For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars....

9:08 AM - 5 May 2019

 

zerohedge‏ @zerohedge

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Trade Deal Dead: Trump Says 10% China Tariff Rising To 25% On Friday, Another $325BN In Goods To Be Taxed

[dTraderB]

A Quiet Twitter Sunday afternoon transforms into furious activity as the news hits the twitterati world. 

 

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner

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Oops! Trump says tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods will increase to 25% on Friday. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/trump-says-tariffs-on-200-billion-of-chinese-goods-will-increase-to-25percent-on-friday.html …

9:16 AM - 5 May 2019

Holger Zschaepitz‏ @Schuldensuehner

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The #Goldilocks economy in 2 charts: While US unemployment has dropped to 3.6%, the lowest level since Dec1969, Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, remains contained, stubbornly below the Fed's target rate of 2%. https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-edge-768fdfe9-a901-4bef-ac01-c700537ae6a8.html?chunk=3&utm_term=twsocialshare#story3 …

9:29 AM - 5 May 2019

 

[dTraderB]

DP WEEKLY WRAP: Nasdaq Composite Record High Not Supported by Internals

Carl Swenlin | May 03, 2019 at 07:03 PM

https://stockcharts....-internals.html

 

[dTraderB]

https://www.advisorp...f-all-time-high

The S&P 500 ended the week a fraction of a percent off its all-time high. The index spent most of the week around its all-time high, began to fall on Wednesday, and bounced back on Friday. It is up 0.96% from yesterday, up 0.2% from last week, and up 17.50% YTD.

t

[Dex]

Trump is learning the Chinese draw things out as long as they can.

[dTraderB]

zerohedge‏ @zerohedge

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Dow Futures Plunge 500 Points As Markets Adjust To Trump Trade Threats

As we detailed earlier, indications across the (admittedly thin) FX markets is that 'pain' is on its way for risk assets after Trump's China Trade deal threats.

Yuan has plunged over 500 pips to 3-month lows...

 

reS&P Gamma flips negative at 2890 (per Nomura). We are there now

 

https://www.zerohedg...p-trade-threats

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S&P Gamma flips negative at 2890 (per Nomura). We are there now

[dTraderB]

Most likely, Trump will walk back - even if partially - those tariff threats, maybe on Monday during the cash session if the DOW falls by more than 600 points.

 

Kudlow will be out to soothe the markets. 

 

Remember the President can reverse the tariff threat if the Chinese offer something worthwhile during the next round of talks that start this week, Wednesday? 

[dTraderB]

Active markets this evening!

 

zerohedge‏ @zerohedge

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we have a new VIX record short

12:40 PM - 3 May 2019

 

[dTraderB]

Best night trading I have had for a long time

 

 

Axios‏Verified account @axios

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A source familiar with Trump's tariff thinking today told @jonathanvswan that the Chinese had been backing off of agreements the U.S. negotiating team believed they had already made.

https://www.axios.co...0d236145c2.html