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The Ord Oracle 8/12/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

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Posted 12 August 2004 - 09:05 AM

August 5 interview with Ike Iossif : http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm

*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the"Stock and Commodities Magazine".
"Timer Digest" has "The Ord Oracle" ranked #3for the three month time frame for the S&P ending 6/21.

 

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (8/10/04) at 1079.04.style="mso-spacerun: yes"> 

Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Looking for buy signal.

We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. andbilled to a credit card. style="mso-spacerun: yes">  Call(1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00.Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.

What to expect now:

We will be out of the office Thursday and Fridayof this week and no report will be issued. style="mso-spacerun: yes"> We get back late Monday night and will send a brief Monday late night report. We will haveone phone update 1/2 hour before the close for Thursday and for Monday. Sorry for theinconvenience.

We had a down side target for an intermediate term low near the1060 for the last couple of weeks.  Last Friday's low came in at 1062 area.  Our"Percent Volume Indicator" on Monday came in at .31, readings in the .32 rangeappear near bottoms.   The "5 day ARMS" closed Monday at 9.48 and readingsabove 8.00 appear at  We have included a graph of the McClellan Summation index(courtesy of Decisionpoint.com).  According to "Patterns for Profit" by Sherman McClellan, bear market bottomsform when the Summation index comes from below -1500 and rallies 2000 -3000 points. You can see from the current graph of the Summation index, it came from -1500 and ralliedto plus 3000 and that adds up to a +4500 point move. So the Summation index rules imply asignificant low is being made now.  You will also notice that the Summation indexmade a higher high to the late June high, where the NYSE index made a lower high. This condition shows the internal strength in the market and is a positive divergence.Also notice that the NYSE is back to the lows of May and the Summation index is way abovethe low of May and another bullish divergence.  If you recall we had a S&P 400 onprevious reports and pointed out that the S&P 400 should find support near the 550level which equates to the 1060 level on the S&P 500.  Last Friday both marketsh*t into their support zones.  There could be some backing and filling for short termand the S&P 500 could re-test Friday's low near the 1060 again, but for intermediateterm the S&P 500 should start a substantial rally from current levels.

Nasdaq Composite:

The Nasdaq does not have as much bullish divergences as the S&P.  The NasdaqMcClellan Summation index does not have a bullish divergence on an intermediate termscale.   There was not a bullish shrinkage in volume on the previous break to therecent new low.  Therefore the Nasdaq is not showing the bullish sign as is theS&P.  Therefore, On the next buy signal for the Nasdaq we will not be thataggressive.

GOLD Market:

September is the strongest month of the year for gold issue performance.  BGO, CBJ,GSS and NXG all have buy signals on the monthly charts. Patience is needed.  The Nextrally phase on the XAU looks to be a Elliott "5th" wave and is usually the mostpowerful and should take this market to over 150.  May 10 at the 77 level appears tohave been the bottom.  For the worst case scenario, the 77 level could be tested butis unlikely.

We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at2.70.   BGO hit below it's May low today on lighter volume and keeps it's bullish buysignal on the Monthly charts. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ is on a monthly buy signal from the May low.  Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG hassupport at 1.35.  NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly chart that was triggered inMay.  We doubled our position in GSS on  (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have anaverage price of 5.24.  Long PMU at average 1.12.  PMU traded below 5/3 low onlighter volume and implies a false break to the downside.  PMU needs to close above.58 before the picture becomes bullish again.

 

 

The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previousintermediate term lows has occurred.   Today's close came in at -49 keeping theSummation index trending down.


The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed Friday at .40 and in bullish territory.

“Five day ARMS” indicator closed Friday at 8.39 and in bullish territory.

Conclusion: Long SPX on 8/10/04 at 1079.04.

Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish but still neutral. May get longer termbuy signal near 1060 on S&P.


Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com


Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.

Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.

In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.

Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.

His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.

A subscription to “THE ORD ORACLE” email and fax update includes:
  • Four faxes a week, sent each week after the market close
  • The Ord Oracle’s fax recommendations.
Prices:
  • 1 year, only $US 750
  • 6 months, only $US 400
  • 3 Months, only $US 210
  • 1 month, only $US 75
Tim Ord, Editor 17300 Van Dorn Street Walton, Nebraska 68461(402) 486-0362Fax (402)-486-0390

http://www.ord-oracle.com
tim@ord-oracle.com