ANALOG PLUS
Monday’s rally was sharper than expected, thought today’s follow through was tepid at best. We must consider the possibility that the August 15 turn date was a low that will provide a few days of respite here. The most bullish outlook would be for the rally to last into September 1 before the large down move into the forecast October 1 low occurs. Calendar Research client Lawrence McKeown notes that the best fit for the 1946 analog is for this year to be lagging the precise Spiral Calendar F29 relationship by one lunar month. The chart here shows that analog fit.
It’s nice to have some outside verification that the appearance of the 1946 analog is not just our own eyes’ imagination at work. Steve Moore’s Moore Research Center calculates the correlation between this year and all years for which he has data in the past. The fit with 1946 is currently 92%, the second highest fit in his database. See his page at http://www.mrci.com/special/ . I’d like to remind new clients that The Spiral Calendar text specifically called for the 2004 market to be analogous to 1946. That book was written in 1992. I know of no analyst, living or dead, who has made a comparable forecast.
Place a buy stop order in September silver at tomorrow’s opening price so long as it’s above 674. If that order is not triggered, place a buy stop at 678 for the remainder of the day. Place the stop on the long position at 657. A rally tomorrow will likely improve the daily trend to neutral. The weekly trend is already up. Cancel the long dollar trade against the yen. Our parameters were not triggered. Our S&P short was closed out. Though the profit was 13 points, I am not satisfied with my trade management of the position.
Christopher Carolan
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