August 5 interview with Ike Iossif: http://marketviews.t...sts/Ord/pg1.htm
*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".
"Timer Digest" has "The Ord Oracle" ranked #3 for the three month time frame for the S&P ending 6/21.
For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (8/10/04) at 1079.04.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Looking for buy signal.
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What to expect now:
We had a down side target for an intermediate term low to occur near the 1060 for the last couple of weeks. The actual low came in on Friday at the1060.72 level. The NYSE Summation index turned up yesterday and implies the trend is now up. Our first upside target is the previous high set late June near the 1145 level. However, we believe that high will be surpassed and head to the 2002 high near the 1170. The 1170 level is a stuff resistance area but our longer term studies suggest that a break through that level is likely. The reason we say this is that from the January high the retracement is only about 20% from the rally that began from the March 2003 low. This shallow retracement implies strength in the market and implies the previous high will be broken which is the 1170 level. If the 1170 area is exceed with volume then the market is headed to the old highs of 2000 at the 1500 area. We will take first things first for now and at least the 1145 is expect for our first target. We are long the S&P at 1079.04.
Nasdaq Composite:
We like to see the Nasdaq Summation index to get below -1000 before an intermediate term buy signal is triggered. On the recent low the Summation index hit a low of -950 and that was it. It is still an extreme over sold level but now as oversold as the S&P's which recorded below the -1500 level. Therefore, On the next buy signal for the Nasdaq we will not be that aggressive.
GOLD Market:
September seaonality is the strongest month of the year for gold issue performance. BGO, CBJ, GSS and NXG all have buy signals on the monthly charts. Short term the XAU is attacking the previous high near the 91.50 area and is the "Third Time Up" testing this level. Normally the "Third Time UP" the market breaks through. If the XAU does break through the 91.50 level with a "Sign of Strength" then the next higher short term target will be 106 which is the April 1 high.
We have included a graph of GSS (courtesy of decisionpoint.com). GSS punched through the 1995 lows near the 4.20 range with a "Sign of Strength" in the October 2003 rally. This range should now at as support. On the current decline, notice how the volume dropped off as GSS moved into support near the 4.20 range. This shows weakening of the down force and a bullish condition. Volume goes in the direction of the impulse wave and volume shrinks in a consolidation phase. You can see on the graph the volume is shrinking on the current consolidation phase. This is bullish. GSS is currently in the support range right now.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. BGO hit below it's May low today on lighter volume and keeps it's bullish buy signal on the Monthly charts. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ is on a monthly buy signal from the May low. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Long PMU at average 1.12.
The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows has occurred.
Today's close came in at +128 and overbought for the short term.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed Friday at .64 and in overbought territory.“
Five day ARMS” indicator closed Friday at 5.52 and in bullish territory.
Conclusion: Long SPX on 8/10/04 at 1079.04.
Longer Term Trend: Starting to look more bullish but still neutral. May get longer term buy signal near 1060 on S&P.
Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com
Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.
Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.
In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.
Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.
His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.
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