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Does forecasting add value?


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#11 peregrine

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 11:07 AM

MN, Any further comment on the efficacy of the Wave 59 natal chart since your original post? Thanks in advance, P

#12 VolPivots

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 01:32 PM

P- It's probably too early too tell since the daily trend has had an upward bias and haven't been able to test it in a down market yet. In general though, it has been a helpful aid so far. It projected an upward bias into the 30th with a downwave projection into mid-month going forward, so we shall see. I'll post a chart later with intraday forecast using 3min bars vs. actual so you and others can judge for yourself. Best, MN

#13 q4wer

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 01:51 PM

You did a better job for Aug. than Haytham at elitetrading.net :D :D :D

#14 mbradley

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 02:28 PM

Does forecasting add value? Depends: Did you trade it when your forecast came out? I never could.

#15 VolPivots

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 03:05 PM

Depends:  Did you trade it when your forecast came out?

I never could.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


To a certain extent, yes, but not based solely on the forecast. The forecast did always cause me to think twice about shorting the market (it did cross my mind more than once :o) since the mid-month low--other than intraday trades, I haven't been short overnight a single day the 2nd half of the month--is avoidance of destruction of wealth adding value?

Like you, I never could/would trade solely on a model, but when supported with add'l evidence....pulling the trigger is that much easier. Otoh, if other TA evidence outweighs what the forecast (subject to inversions) is suggesting, I have no problem fading it.

#16 q4wer

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 06:00 PM

MN, what is your Holy Grail now telling you for Sept.? Thanks a lot!

Edited by q4wer, 02 September 2004 - 06:01 PM.


#17 VolPivots

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 09:48 PM

Here's DIA forecast for Sep:

Posted Image


Some other stuph to consider:
Here's mirror image foldback technique for the SPX:

Posted Image

Note we're sitting right at gann angle resistance, but trying to 'breakout' back above the 1x2 angle from the Oct'02 lows:

Posted Image

My cycle model projects a CIT circa tomorrow (many of the past dates called significant turns +/-) and a one way ticket into early Oct.

Posted Image

Finally, some interesting time confluences hit yesterday/today:
1.618[9/1/00H-3/19/02H] = 9/2/04
0.500[3/12/03L-3/5/04H] = 9/1/04

#18 q4wer

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Posted 02 September 2004 - 11:01 PM

Thanks a lot for sharing !!! :D :D :D