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The Ord Oracle 9/1/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 04:58 PM

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August 19 interview with Ike Iossif

*Look for Tim's article in the May issue of the "Stock and Commodities Magazine".
"Timer Digest" has "The Ord Oracle" ranked #3 for the three month time frame for the S&P ending 6/21.

For 30 to 90 days horizon: Long SPX (8/10/04) at 1079.04.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Looking for buy signal near the 1080 range.

We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.

What to expect now:

On Monday's commentary, we said, "The S&P tested the swing high of August 2 at the 1109 level on Friday on reduced volume and a bearish short-term sign. This condition implies a pull back should start this week. It does not appear any worthwhile decline is starting here but a pull back to the 1080 level is possible near term." The McClellan Summation index is trending and implies the trend is up and therefore nothing significant to the downside is anticipated. The volume on the last rally up to the 1109 level was lack luster and implied the short term uptrend was weakening. Today's high volume sideways move is bullish on the bigger time frames but bearish on the short term time frame. It still appears the S&P may back and fill for the rest of the week. The S&P 400 and S&P 600 are both producing bullish intermediate term signals and imply that the S&P 500 will follow. We remain bullish on the "30 to 90 day horizon" and the longer term picture for the S&P.

We have included a graph of the Chemical Index ($djusch) (courtesy of decisionpoint.com). You can see that this index is up against the breakout area right now, (the Neck line of a double Head and Shoulders Bottom). We anticipate this neck line will be "JUMPED" very soon. From our longer term studies this index has an upside target near 240. Currently this index is near 185. We like HPC and is in the Chemical sector.   Strong support lies near the 12.25 range and good support lies at the 13.25 range. It appears this stock has a lot of upside and the down side is near one point. We bought this stock on the close today at 13.73.

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Nasdaq Composite:


The Nasdaq is trying to turn the corner to up side and has rallied from the recent low of 1750 to 1860 area but has failed to trade above the swing high of July 30 at the 1900 level and is a negative for this market.  The Nasdaq ARMS index recorded a reading yesterday of 1.87 and the day before of 3.12, which adds up to 4.99. Two days of ARMS readings that add up to 5.00 is bullish for the short term. Therefore, there may not be much of a retracement. The Nasdaq has support near the 1800 level and a potential bullish signal may develop there. Staying flat for now.

GOLD Market:

The XAU has built a trading range for the last week and half. This trading range is probable the "B" wave of an ABC up. Put it another way, we are probably at the 1/2 point of the next move up. If that is the case then the next upside target of the potential ABC pattern is the 106 level, which is also the April 1 high. Therefore, the 106 area could stall the market for a short while. September is the strongest month for gold issues and should prove to be a strong month.
We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ is on a monthly buy signal from the May low. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. NXG is on a buy signal on the monthly chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Long PMU at average 1.12.



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The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an area where previous intermediate term lows has occurred. Today's close came in at +144 and overbought for the short term.

 The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .51 and in neutral territory.

 “Five day ARMS” indicator closed at 6.9 and in bullish territory.  

Conclusion: Long SPX on 8/10/04 at 1079.04.

Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23

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Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com


Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that was established in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P, Nasdaq and gold issues.

Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the University of Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to Vice President and Senior Option Principal in 1981.

In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in "The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles that where published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first article appeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E. tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick index called “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now used worldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock and Commodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of Richard Wyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr. Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysis at the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.

Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options since their inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratio shows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in the country by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002, Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In 1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option division using his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had ranked The Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.

His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TV in Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.


A subscription to “THE ORD ORACLE” email and fax update includes:
  • Four faxes a week, sent each week after the market close
  • The Ord Oracle’s fax recommendations.
Prices:
  • 1 year, only $US 750
  • 6 months, only $US 400
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  • 1 month, only $US 75
Tim Ord, Editor
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
(402) 486-0362
Fax (402)-486-0390

http://www.ord-oracle.com
tim@ord-oracle.com