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Market Turns Advisory 9/1/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 01 September 2004 - 06:58 PM

S&P 500 CASH

SPX CASH: Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1109; Low -1099

SEPT SP: Daily Projected Support and Resistance levels: High- 1108; Low - 1098

SPX CASH: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1117; Low -1100

SEPT SP: 5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1116; Low -1099

SPX CASH: Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1131; Low -1082

SPX CASH: Yearly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High - 1274; Low -950

Current SPX Index Postures:
Mid-term (6-8 weeks) = 60% BULLISH from 1104 (avg price)
Short-term (1 day-3 weeks) = 70% BEARISH from 1100.70 (intraday today)

From previous outlook: "as noted in recentoutlooks, there exists the potential for a larger round of selling here if minor supportis taken out. For that minor support we have the 1098.44 SPX CASH region; if that is takenout lower in the coming sessions then it will confirm a 20 day cycle downside target tothe 1086-1090 region, with at least the potential for lower numbers to be seen as thiscycle bottoms."

Current Outlook: The SPX gave us someimportant information in today’s session, taking out the 1098.44 area noted inlast night’s outlook, which confirms a 20 day cycle downside target to 1086-1090 SPXCASH - with at least the potential for lower numbers below this region. This target isvalid until 9/13/04 and until and unless the 1109.68 swing top were to be closed above; ifthat were to occur before the 1090 area or lower is hit, then the downsideprojection for this component would be voided, as the upward phase for this cycle wouldstill be in progress. Looking at the volume numbers in today’s session, volumeactually onfirmed the downside action, coming in at 1.15 billion shares, which is about a25% increase from the numbers seen in Monday’s session. Coming on a day where newswing lows were made, this gives above-average probabilities that lower swing lows will bemade n the coming session or three - even regardless of whether minor new swing highsabove 1109.68 are seen.

As noted last night, if the 1098.44 area were taken outsouth hen the odds would be lowered for any new swing highs to be made  later thisweek - and most especially a test of the upper end of resistance  at the 1117-1120region, though it is not out of the question that another test or stab at the 1109 swingtop could be seen. Noting the analysis from the 36 hour cycle, it bottomed at today’s  intraday lows; later in the day on the intraday site I noted also that the late-daypush above 1101.50 SPX CASH had confirmed an upside  projection with this smaller 36hour cycle to 1103.71- 1107.99 SPX CASH, which was easily hit in the finalfew minutes oftoday’s session. This cycle is now 2 hours along at today’s close, and, with thenormal topping region in the 11-22 hour range, odds will favor higher highs will be seenin Wednesday’s session;  the daily projected resistance high is also indicatinganother test of the 1109 swing top is coming. Going to our daily chart you can see thatthe 10 day oscillator is now moving into the normal bottoming range, which agrees with thecurrent labeling on this component. The red moving average is still pointing higher, soshould the 10 day oscillator kick back to the upside at any point in the coming sessionsit will seal the low in for this cycle and call in a test of the 1117-  1120 regionor higher. The alternate is that today was the low for the 10 day cycle - which isnot out of the question - as the drop off the high nearly met the normal 1.4% drop that80% of these cycles have seen and is also within the normal bottoming range for this cycle(6-12 trading days). A daily close above the 1109.68 swing top would be the indicationthat this is what is happening here. We’ll see how Wednesday’s session plays outon the intraday site.

 

NASDAQ 100 CASH

Daily Projected Support and Resistancelevels: High, 1370 - Low, 1352
5-Day Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1407 - Low, 1374
Monthly Projected Support and Resistance levels: High, 1388 - Low, 1281

Current NDX Index Postures:
Mid-Term (6-8 weeks) = 50% BULLISH from 1365Short-term (1 day - 3 weeks) = NEUTRAL

From previous outlook: "Chartat left you can also see that the 20 day oscillator has turned south on this index aswell, so below the 1360 area (last week’s low) and we would have to expect someadditional decline here - especially with the 45 day moving average still trending to thesouth on this index. Should minor support from above hold the downside here, then we caneasily be back to or above the high end of the range by late week for a test of the 1407weekly projected resistance high; if taken out lower, then the probabilities will be muchlower for solid new swing highs later this week. We’ll see how it all plays out onthe intraday site tomorrow."

Current analysis: As noted last night,  takingout the 1360 area here would likely see additional selling pressure, as breaking thisnumber is the best indication that the down phase of the 20 day cycle is in progress onthis index, with the 18 day moving average now acting as the attractor for price. Volumehere came in at 1.3 billion shares, which is about a 23% increase from the same numberseen at Monday‘s close. Coming in on a day where a lower low was registered, it infershigh-odds that a  test or break below  oday’s lows should be seen in thecoming days.

Shorter term there should be some  additionalupside in Wednesday’s session from today’s late-day reversal, as 80% of the upphases for the 36 hour cycle have seen their rallies lasting at least 11 trading hours;this implies the earliest that the next minor top will be seen will be in Friday’ssession, with a retest of the high end of the range a normal possibility.

oing back to the daily chart here you can see that the10 day oscillator has pushed into normal oversold region; if and when this oscillatorturns to the upside in the coming sessions it will seal in the 10 day cycle low in placeon this index and call in a test of higher numbers, such as the larger 200 day movingaverage, which is shown in blue on the same chart and is currently near the 1440 region,which is in the range where 80% of the up phases of the larger 45 day cycle have ralliedto in recent years. Stay tuned.