Posted 18 November 2003 - 11:42 PM
I wish all members voted in this poll.
It is the only daily poll that shows active trader sentiment.
It is practically saving us from having to make fifty individual phone calls to trading buddies finding out what they think.
I swear by the theory that by watching volume action one can see clearly which side is on the defensive. I believe watching sentiment shifts has similar value, illuminating some otherwise unexplainable aberrations on the charts.
We should go on other boards periodically to invite people to join this poll.
In my three weeks of following this poll I noticed that when the bullish/bearish ratio is lopsided the next day there is at least a stall in the price movement. This is one way I find it useful. (tonight nearly 2:1 bear/bull ratio is not lopsided)
An other way is when there is a standoff (hesitation) like after mondays' action and the market just keeps going, basically then it is weaker than expected.
I am sure there are other connections I just have not noticed them.
I suspect that combinig the poll info with shifts in the up/dn volume ratio(which represents the factual condition of the market) and using short term oscillators we'll have a good grasp of the flow of the market.
One should be asking at each junction: against what kind of background did what happen happen? After todays action nearly twice as many voted bullish then bearish
and it would not be a surprise if the market rallied, but, if tomorrw is another down or sideways that would be a surprise.
The beauty of the poll is that it contains the information from the serious to the shoot from the hip, from the beginner to a guy like me who has been trading for decades, from the bear to the super bull, so everyone's vote is important.