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The Ord Oracle 10/14/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 14 October 2004 - 08:51 AM

*Interview with Ike Iossif on September 30http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm
**Interviewwith Leo Leydon For October 11 http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html-click archive for Wednesday.
"TimerDigest" has Tim Ord ranked #3 in performance for 6 month for the S&P and #6 for 3months ending 10/1/04.

For 30 to90 days horizon:  Long SPX (8/10/04) at 1079.04. Long Nasdaq (10/12/04) at 1925.17.

Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Flat.

To learn more on "Ord-Volume" pleasevisit www.ord-oracle.com.

Long (9/22/04) NEXM at 1.33. We are long the SPXon 8/10 at 1079.04 and we are holding that position. We hold LU at 3.45. We hold HPC at13.73. We bought EGHT at 2.62. Should go back to old high of 8.00 if not higher.

What to expect now:

Yesterday the S&P tested the gap area that formed between 9/30 to 10/1 near the 1118area. Yesterday's decline into this gap area, volume contracted 17% and then the S&Pclosed above the gap level triggering a bullish signal. Today's decline closed the gaplevel and volume did increase from yesterday but still lighter then 9/30 (the day beforethe gap). Most of today's volatility may be expiration related.  Our "PercentVolume" indicator closed today at .32 and readings near .34 and below appear nearbottoms. This indicator is usually a day or so early and suggest the S&P are hoveringnear the lows now. The next rally from current levels should show a stronger volume andprice action then the rally from the mid August lows. This is because it needs to havethis "Sign of Strength" through the previous highs of March, April and June atthe 1140 to 1160 range to confirm the up-trend. Therefore the next up-surge should bestrong. We are long the S&P 500 intermediate term at 1079.04 and long the S&P 500for long term at 1091.23.

Nasdaq Composite:

Yesterday the Nasdaq tested the gap level between 9/30 to 10/1 at the 1910 level andvolume shrank by 18% and the Nasdaq closed above the gap level triggering a bullishsignal. The Nasdaq gapped up strongly today and then faded most of the day. This type ofmarket volatility is common during option expiration week, (which is this week). We see noreason to change our bullish signal from yesterday's close.  We noticed that 10/6rally broke to a new minor high above 10/4 on increased volume and from our experience,market seldom make tops on high volume and implies at a minimum the 10/6 high (1971) willat least be tested if not broken. However, the more likely upside target for the nextresistance level will be the 6/30 high near the 2060 area.

GOLD Market:

The XAU decline from the high of 10/8 near the 105 level appears to be a "Three GapPlay". The "Break away gap" appeared from 10/8 to 10/11. The "MidPoint Gap" formed from 10/11 to 10/12 and the final gap down called an"Exhaustion Gap" appeared on today's open. The "Exhaustion Gap" shouldbe the largest of the three gaps (which it was) and marks the end of the down-move. The Market should now reverse and at a minimum go back and fill the first gap nearthe 105 level. It may go further then that. "Three Gap Plays" are not long termtopping patterns but rather short term time outs in an up-trend.  

We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 and we now have an average price at2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. CBJ is on a monthly buy signal from theMay low. Long NXG average of 2.26. NXG has support at 1.35. NXG is on a buy signal on themonthly chart that was triggered in May. We doubled our position in GSS on (7/30/04) at4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Long PMU at average 1.12.

The McClellan Oscillator closed at -366 on May 10 and in an areawhere previous intermediate term lows has occurred. Today's close came in at -136 and inoversold territory.

The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .32 and in bullish territory.

 “Five day ARMS” indicator closed at 7.91 and in bullish territory.

 Conclusion: Long SPX on 8/10/04 at 1079.04, long Nasdaq on 10/12/04 at 1925.17.

 Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23.