Christopher Carolan, Editor
On Time Update
8 December 2004 Evening
UNFOLDING
Monday’s update discussed the impending dollar rally and the expected decline it would cause for stocks, gold and silver. Those trends are unfolding now. Monday night’s web update saw the gold trend downgraded to neutral and the dollar trend against the yen raised to positive. The markets followed through with a strong dollar rally (the bulk of which was complete before NY opened) and large drops in both gold and silver. Stocks could not extend Monday’s weakness. The key to how the markets resolve from here lies in next week’s date cluster. The chart of clusters ran in last month’s newsletter with their fabulous track record of nailing turns is updated here. The relatively bullish outlook is for the decline that began late last week to carry into the middle of next week and bottom near the 1160 area on the S&P. The bearish scenario is one more rally into the cluster time frame possibly just above 1200, which would produce an excellent short entry point. Either way, the better trade opportunity looks to occur next week and not now.
We remain short crude oil from 44.40 basis the January future. Lower the stop to 42.90. If our stop can holds through this week, a move to the 38 area is indicated.
Notice! The Calendar Research website is now open for a free preview. For those who are reading this under that generous offer, I ask you to please spread the word on the internet or wherever about this limited free offer. If enough people generate enough new interest, I’ll extend the preview time by another week!
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