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The Ord Oracle 12/23/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

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Posted 23 December 2004 - 10:17 AM




*Interview with Ike Iossif on December 9 http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Ord/pg1.htm

**Interview with Leo Leydon For December 20 http://financialfocusadvisoryservices.com/radio.html-click archive. "Timer Digest" has Tim Ord ranked #4 on returns for theS&P for one year, #3 for 6 month and #2 for 3 months ending 11/12/04. "Timer Digest" [font="Verdana;color:red"]hasranked Tim Ord as the top gold timer for the last 12 months ending 11/12/04. [/font]

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For 30 to 90 days horizon:
Per intraday report on Friday, Sold long SPX (12/10/04) at1188.00 for gain of 8.5% and now flat.  [/font]LongSPX (10/25/04) at 1094.46.  Sold long Nasdaq(12/10/04) at 2128.07 for gain of 8.93% and now flat. Long Nasdaq (10/21/04) at 1953.62.
For monitoring purposes: Long XAU,87.96 on 4/21/04.
Longer Term Trend monitoring purposes
[font=" Verdana"]:Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23. Possible target to old high near 1550 level. [/font]

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What to expect now: [/font]


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We have included a graph of the weekly S&P 600 small cap index (courtesy of www.de[/font]cisionpoint.com).  You notice inNovember this index broke above the previous highs going back to March with a "Signof Strength".  A "Sign ofStrength" is a wide price spread and high volume bar. This condition confirms the uptrend.  Theprevious highs should now act as support on any pull back. We have drawn a "Red Line" at this support zone.  Normally when a market breaks above resistance,that resistance zone will now become support.  Itis normal for a market to pull back to this support zone and test it before headinghigher.  We have drawn "Blue Lines"on the chart from the candle to the volume.  Youcan see the light volume test of this week will most lightly be lighter compared to theprevious high set a couple of weeks ago.  Lightvolume tests of a previous high is a short term bearish sign and suggest the market shouldstart a pull back now.  The potential pullback should find support near the "Red Line" at the 147 area.  This would equate to around the 1160 range on theS&P cash index.  The larger time frametrend appears to be up and will be looking to buy back long on the S&P, probablybetween 1150 to 1170 area. Sold long SPX (12/10/04) at 1188.00 for gain of 8.5%.

[font="Verdana"]To learn more on"Ord-Volume" please visit www.ord-oracle.com.  [/font]

Bought ISON on12/2/04 at 4.00 and sold 1/2 at 4.33 for 8.23% gain. (12/21/04) we sold the remaining 1/2 position at 6.00 for an average gain of 29%.Sold 1/2 eght at 4.20 (60% gain) and have stop on remaining 1/2 position at 3.50. 


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[font="Verdana"]Nasdaq Composite:[/font]
The Nasdaq made a higher high and the Summation index made a lower high and is a negativedivergence.  Support comes in near the 2100level down to 2050 level.  We would like tosee the Nasdaq pull back this week and next on light volume as this would have a bullishoutcome.  Light volume pullbacks arebullish.  We may end up with a bullishsignal near the 2100 level.  Sold long Nasdaq(12/10/04) at 2128.07 for gain of 8.93%.
GOLD Market:


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"Timer Digest" has ranked Tim Ord as the [/font]top gold timer for the last 12 months ending 11/12/04.


[font="Verdana"]The XAU may be building a "Right Shoulder" ofa "Head and Shoulder Bottom" where the "Head" is the May 10 low nearthe 77 level.  [/font]The "Left Shoulder"and "Right Shoulder" are usually near equal in magnitude and duration.  The "Left Shoulder" took five months tocomplete and therefore the "Right shoulder" may take five months to complete.  We are starting the "Right Shoulder"form October 8 and could run to February 8 before it's completed. The bigger picture stillimplies the XAU should at least reach 150 and possible 180 and finish the bull market thatbegan at the 2000 lows.

[font="Verdana"]We double our positions in BGO on (7/30/04) at 2.34 andwe now have an average price at 2.70. Long CBJ for an average of price of 2.89. Long NXGaverage of 2.26. We doubled our position in GSS on  [/font](7/30/04)at 4.04 and we have an average price of 5.24. Gss is not acting well for the moment.  No change for now. Long PMU at average 1.12.

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[font="Verdana"]The McClellan Oscillator closed today's at +12 and isneutral.
The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed at .54 and neutral.
“Five day ARMS” indicator closed at 4.77 and neutral territory.

Conclusion: Per intraday report on Friday (12/10/04), Sold long SPX (12/10/04) at 1188.00for gain of 8.5% and now flat.  [/font]Long SPX(10/25/04) at 1094.46.

[font="Verdana"]Longer Term Trend: Long SPX on 8/19/04 at 1091.23.  [/font]Upside target to old 2000 highs near the 1550level.

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[font="Verdana"]We will be travelling Thursday and no report will beposted for that day.  [/font]Next report will comeMonday December 27.  Have a Happy and MerryChristmas.  All the Best, Tim Ord

Tim Ord
email me at: tim@ord-oracle.com
website link: www.ord-oracle.com

Mr. Ord is president, editor and publisher of "The Ord Oracle" that wasestablished in 1990 as a Monday through Thursday email report that trades the S&P,Nasdaq and gold issues.

Tim Ord earned a Bachelor of Science degree as a Mathematics teacher from the Universityof Nebraska in 1973. He become a Stockbroker in 1977 and worked his way up to VicePresident and Senior Option Principal in 1981.

In 1988, using his own account, he place fourth nationally in the option division in"The United States Trading Championship". He has written several articles thatwhere published in the "Stock and Commodities Magazine". His first articleappeared back in June 1991 where he introduced a new trading method using the N.Y.S.E.tick index. Now a contributing editor of Technical Analysis of Stocks and CommoditiesMagazine, he presented this new technical trading tool using the N.Y.S.E. tick indexcalled “uptick” and “downticks”. This tick index method is now usedworldwide by short term traders, and was published in a recent article in "Stock andCommodities Magazine" (5/2004). This method was derived from the works of RichardWyckoff, a gentleman who did extensive study with price and volume back in the 1930's. Mr.Ord expanded and simplified his studies, and was one of the speakers on technical analysisat the Dow Jones Telerate Seminars in Las Vegas in 1995.

Tim Ord has over 25 years in trading experience, having traded the OEX index options sincetheir inception in the early 1980’s, and is frequently a guest on financial ratioshows from coast to coast, and is f requently listed in the top 10 market timers in thecountry by "Timer Digest" (Ranks market letters by performance), in 2002,Schreiner Capital Co. placed Mr. Ord 9 out of over 300 money managers in performance. In1988 he entered The United States Trading Championship competition in the option divisionusing his own account and placed fourth nationally. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 had rankedThe Ord Oracle #3 in performance for 1999.

His market opinions are featured regularly on Reuters America along with weekly on WCIU TVin Chicago and biweekly on TFNN radio.


A subscription to “THE ORD ORACLE” email and fax update includes:

* Four faxes a week, sent each week after the market close
* The Ord Oracle’s fax recommendations.

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Tim Ord, Editor
17300 Van Dorn Street
Walton, Nebraska 68461
(402) 486-0362
Fax (402)-486-0390

http://www.ord-oracle.com
tim@ord-oracle.com