For over half a year I've been looking at what appears to be a three-wave corrective move from the October 2002 low, not the start of a long-term bull market nor a continuation of the one from 1987/1982/1974 etc.
Of these three waves, ABC, the "C" kept on going and going, confounding as the market is often wont to do. Nevertheless, it again looks like a low-risk selling opportunity right now, against this month's highs, in the S&P as well as the DJIA and NASDAQ.
From this month's high, we've gone down in an impulsive manner, and back up in what looks like a correction thus far, and the big GDP growth number and other "good news" fits with us making another top here. We've gone back up toward the broken lower trendline support of the move into the high, and while sentiment could be a bit more bullish, I think the chart alone makes for selling advisable.
Best,
Doug
Phoenixlike, Bearish S&P Count once again.
Started by
PorkLoin
, Nov 25 2003 09:59 AM
2 replies to this topic
#2
gannman
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Posted 25 November 2003 - 08:36 PM
there is no doubt it is a three wave corrective move and not an impulse. the question is when does it stop. many stocks like gs amat yhoo look like they need one more new high and the party is over . just my take
regards
gman
feeling mellow with the yellow metal
#3
PorkLoin
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Posted 30 November 2003 - 12:38 PM
>>there is no doubt it is a three wave corrective move and not an impulse. the question is when does it stop. many stocks like gs amat yhoo look like they need one more new high and the party is over . just my take<<
Hi Gannman,
Yes indeed -- "when does it stop?" As wisely noted by others on this message board and its predecessors going back over the years, "The market can and will do what it wants."
Viewing the move up from Oct 2002/March 2003 as a correction in an overall bear market has not prevented this long rally, and while prior to this one getting short in corrective rallies has meant rewards of hundreds of big points in the S&P, it's "been different" this time, and it's not *that* surprising -- how many times in a row is a given thing going to work?
Patience is certainly a virtue in here. I think it farfetched that we saw "the end of the bear market" in 2002, and that at some point the overall downtrend will reassert itself. You may well be right about some stocks heading to new highs, and I don't doubt that some indices will as well -- they're not far away.
Good trading,
Doug
