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Just went long Mini-Gold (YGZ3) at 390.4


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#1 TechSkeptic

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 04:37 PM

Initial target 400, initial stop 385.

#2 teki

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 04:52 PM

Bold move. What is the driver here? (Already long some gold stocks and psafx).

#3 TechSkeptic

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 07:13 PM

Okay, here are a few reasons for this trade: 1) Gold has been bumping up against 400 recently, it seems probable it should at least make it back up there again pretty soon, if not blast right through. 2) 386 was the last prior swing low. I'm bottom-picking here, but I bet we make a higher low, hence the stop at 385. However, this is a tight stop. The 378-380 region would give it a little more breathing room. But 385 gives me a 2:1 reward/risk ratio on this trade. 3) Gold has rallied into year-end the last 2 years. Last December-January was a doozie! Negatives: 1) Possible bearish ascending wedge on daily chart, which technically could signal a reversal. 2) Daily MACD looks like it's trying to do a sell crossover, however last time it did this at end of October, the correction was shallow and another buy signal quickly ensued. Comments?

#4 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 07:18 PM

We should know soon enough...

Getting close to a decision point in the XAU.. Do we head up in the red channel or drop in the widening wedge?

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I think I will make a poll on this in FF.

#5 TechSkeptic

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 07:21 PM

Forgot to add: 4) Gold stocks were higher today while the metal dropped. It is widely held that the stocks lead the metal, though I'm not sure what the typical time delay is. Maybe one day is too much to hope for?

#6 MercatusVeteris

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Posted 25 November 2003 - 09:01 PM

Gentlemen, Gold without a doubt longer term is the place to park some of your money. The forty week cycle in the market will perhaps take the market down until the middle of January. Then it should rebound pretty good. Gold and bonds will be where investors hedge thier positions, or park thier money during this period. So I don't look for gold to pull back to far(perhaps far enough, to shake out some weak hands) but then should resume around the 8th of December, taking out 400 shortly after that, topping out the middle of January. (possibly then a serious pullback, but I doubt it). To many problems to be resolved for it to pullback to far. Gold right now is not only a comodity, but is a life raft for investors large and small. MERCATUS VETERIS

#7 TechSkeptic

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 01:45 PM

Doh! :o I lost my position due to IB's rules about holding physically delivered commodity contracts too close to the delivery month. They liquidated me this morning at roughly 393 to prevent physical delivery in December. If I had picked January instead, I would have had a nice profit. At least I did get a small profit (better than losing money). Live and learn! I'll consider going long again if we get another pullback to the low 390's. Anyway, I should be happy that my long term gold stock holdings are doing well, which is actually much more important than this trade.

#8 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 26 November 2003 - 06:04 PM

Ahhh.. I hate when that stuff happens..