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#1 tsharp

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Posted 03 February 2005 - 05:02 PM

with the distance between the fast line and the signal line on the right chart, and no positive divergence on the fast line, the hook that appeared on it near the close would not be a SAR signal in and of itself. and as with yesterday's close, today's close also hooked the signal line on the middle chart (15-min ES), not allowing a close above the DTL, which could have given a SAR signal, with the hook of the fast line on the right chart, even without the postive divergence. now tomorrow could gap upwards in response to 'good' economic numbahs, and if so, this signal could end up not making anything on this swing... or even taking a small loss... but... i won't have any regrets for doing what the signal said to do, as most will win, some will lose... but that's the name of the game. we'll what tomorrow brings. --tsharp chart attached

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#2 tsharp

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Posted 04 February 2005 - 10:34 AM

with the distance between the fast line and the signal line on the right chart, and no positive divergence on the fast line, the hook that appeared on it near the close would not be a SAR signal in and of itself.

and as with yesterday's close, today's close also hooked the signal line on the middle chart (15-min ES), not allowing a close above the DTL, which could have given a SAR signal, with the hook of the fast line on the right chart, even without the postive divergence.

now tomorrow could gap upwards in response to 'good' economic numbahs, and if so, this signal could end up not making anything on this swing... or even taking a small loss...

but...

i won't have any regrets for doing what the signal said to do, as most will win, some will lose... but that's the name of the game.

we'll what tomorrow brings.

--tsharp

chart attached

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


needless to say, with my swing system being right on the cusp of a possible SAR at the close yesterday, all it took was a positive open with at least ten minutes or so of holding power to trigger a SAR this morning, and it did...

as of 9:40 my short-term momentum model signalled a SAR back to a buy at ES 1191.0, for +3.0 on the last swing.

now we're back up at the ST resistance range of spx ~1195, but now in what appears to be a Ro4 (rule of four) pattern, which seems to suggest that the market should be able to push on through after a brief pause... but as always... twt.

chart later.

--tsharp

p.s. if the spx can't push through this range, it would likely be viewed as a reason to begin selling... so don't take anything for granted.

#3 tsharp

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Posted 04 February 2005 - 11:06 AM

with the distance between the fast line and the signal line on the right chart, and no positive divergence on the fast line, the hook that appeared on it near the close would not be a SAR signal in and of itself.

and as with yesterday's close, today's close also hooked the signal line on the middle chart (15-min ES), not allowing a close above the DTL, which could have given a SAR signal, with the hook of the fast line on the right chart, even without the postive divergence.

now tomorrow could gap upwards in response to 'good' economic numbahs, and if so, this signal could end up not making anything on this swing... or even taking a small loss...

but...

i won't have any regrets for doing what the signal said to do, as most will win, some will lose... but that's the name of the game.

we'll what tomorrow brings.

--tsharp

chart attached

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


needless to say, with my swing system being right on the cusp of a possible SAR at the close yesterday, all it took was a positive open with at least ten minutes or so of holding power to trigger a SAR this morning, and it did...

as of 9:40 my short-term momentum model signalled a SAR back to a buy at ES 1191.0, for +3.0 on the last swing.

now we're back up at the ST resistance range of spx ~1195, but now in what appears to be a Ro4 (rule of four) pattern, which seems to suggest that the market should be able to push on through after a brief pause... but as always... twt.

chart later.

--tsharp

p.s. if the spx can't push through this range, it would likely be viewed as a reason to begin selling... so don't take anything for granted.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


this appears to be the breakout, though i would suspect that we could also see a back-test of that line of resistance... but a back-test isn't necessary.

#4 deacon

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Posted 04 February 2005 - 01:32 PM

i'm sure i posted a bond short at trader's talk the last time le longe bonde did +1.5 interday, so oops i did it again----> now got first nibble on march TLT puts i presume the rev bullworth is touting the rydex inverse bond fund buy today... also, feb. seasonals are very poor for le longe, but i did march puts to give it some time le longe is trading like a dirty bomb will go off this weekend, so if nothing happens and the g7 participants reiterate that higher yields are needed in america to get our dollar off the mat, then i could have a nice trade quite quickly B) your SPX is up trying the .618 of 1163.75-1217.9 =1196, with the round number above a big goal i mentioned the other day that QQQQ had a holy grail sale in the gap, then she took a peek at it just as forecast after fomc, and dove to the 37 round numbah... so i'd expect your SPX to stall if and when the QQQQ get's to that gap again SPX looks bullish if can hold ~~50dema 1188 daily macd on indexes have done a bull cross, however weekly macds have done a bear cross, so i'd expect the best the bulls can do is hold it up thru valentine's day overall my intuition says everybody is totally wrong today on tGif, lotta profits to be had if soybeans, corn, silver, bonds reverse next week

#5 deacon

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Posted 04 February 2005 - 02:05 PM

silver will follow gold

gold has 200MA and .618 fib of last year's range around 410

XAU has it's .618 fib at 90, so above 90 monday we could roll...it's also the monthly R1 zone

le longe bonde has a monthly numbah at 116-11

i always find this worth reading in the morning -----> http://quotes.ino.co...alysis/markets/

#6 deacon

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Posted 09 February 2005 - 01:02 PM

the sharp drop(ya got that trademarked yet?) occurred because the QQQQ could not get thru the gap zone

now we seem to be in a solid 60min down for your SPX on 'weird wollie wednesday', which is the wednesday before options expiration, named after our own 'da_chief' when way back when he postulated many big boyz will roll options on this day, thus bringing volatility

arch is on cnbc 2:20pm et, so maybe he'll give a date for his 'crash' stuff over in forum 45---->
http://traders-talk....showtopic=29565

QQQQ weekly r1= 37.25 and COMPX major fib at 2058, first nibbles long there with stop below the round numbahs 37-2050 ....volume very low on shake at 47mil at 1pm et

die die die, that bond is much too high B)

#7 deacon

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Posted 09 February 2005 - 01:05 PM

oops R1=S1 NQ fibs interesting 1520-22 ranges 1645-1316 and 1583-1484

#8 deacon

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Posted 10 February 2005 - 08:30 AM

my postulating last friday that virtually all(!) markets were in error in their movement has had success in the stock indexes and in the grain complex let's roll the reversals in bond, dollar, gold, silver right now off these 8:30am numbahs boyz!! continuous gold/silver futures 200MA = 411 661

#9 deacon

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Posted 10 February 2005 - 08:37 AM

die die die this bond is much too high :) US5h bouncing from -24/32 off the numbahs dollar strong 85.45 on trade gap beating forecast, so gold/silver can't go remember a strong dollar hurts our multinational big cap index stock earnings