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Actual position poll


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#1 CLK

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 12:04 AM

I went back and checked the poll stats for the January top. What I found was that the majority were long and remained that way from late Dec. through Jan. 10th, well into the decline. However, the pollees nailed the turn at the January lows and have remained long since, except a big majority got fully short(12 fully short) after the one day selloff on the ninth, but got it wrong as the 10th reversed and closed higher than on the ninth. Since then the majority have been long. And now the market has broken trend at major resistance but the majority are still long just like at the January top. My conclusion is that the pollees are good at calling bottoms but wrong at tops, this may be because of a bullish bias since the market is in an uptrend. I'm ST bearish and I think the majority will be wrong again and will continue to fight the top for probably another week. Comments welcome.

#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 12:30 AM

Monday, Jan 24th was the S&P low.
Sentiment after the market close Monday, Jan 24th was the most pessimistic it had been in a month or two.
See the chart below for sentiment going into Tuesday, Jan 25th.
Well guess what? That was the bottom.
Guess what else? Sentiment has finally turned pessimistic after being neutral for a couple of weeks.
In fact, Sentiment for this Tuesday is near the same level it was before the January low, although not quite as pessimistic.
But if Tuesday should happen to be a down day, Sentiment-wise I think it could be a buy at the close.
Otherwise we may need some more worry.
Charts from Sentimentrader.com
CLICK HERE for last week's Sentiment.
CLICK HERE thru Feb. 4th
CLICK HERE for assorted dates including the EXTREME bullishness going into Dec. 27 & Jan 3rd.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 February 2005 - 12:53 AM.


#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:11 AM

HOWEVER... As noted in MY POST BELOW $NASI,$NAMO, and $NYMO are just rolling over and look like they could go down for a while.

#4 CLK

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:34 AM

RD, sentiment does look a little different there.

Here is something I noticed about the high volume days
especially on OPEX. The high volume down days within an uptrend
were buy signals and the high volume up days within a down trend were sells.
I think that is what we got on Friday, but could get a little more strength
early Tuesday.

Tried to draw a new channel but got distorted when I saved it.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$indu,uu[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!ld20][j44784646,y]&r=9914.gif

#5 IYB

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:46 AM

Thanks for those sentiment comparisons, Roger. You laid it out in a very clear manner - so that your point makes a whole lot of sense. What, exactly, is being measured by st? Do you have the actual formula, and the numbers corresponding to excess pessimism, neutral, and excess optomism? And what is the difference in the longer vs. shorter term measure? TIA. And for God's sake, I hope you don't come back with that "propietary" nonsense! :blink: :unsure: ;) D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#6 flyers&divers

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 08:05 AM

What, exactly, is being measured by st? Do you have the actual formula, and the numbers corresponding to excess pessimism, neutral, and excess optomism? And what is the difference in the longer vs. shorter term measure?



I am also a subscriber to ST and I thought I comment.

Best to take a free trial to SentimentTrader because it is hard to describe in detail, it is a many faceted process.
They are measuring at least 40 aspects of sentiment, some of them unique. In addition each of tem are presented in graphic format (with standard deviation bands).
The charts Rodgerrodger posted are daily summaries of a basket of short or long term indicator readings as they relate to the standard deviation bands.

ST is absolutely tops. I have never seen a more intelligent and comprehensive work on sentiment.
I would recommend evryone to try it . No I am not the brother of JasonGoepfert.java script:emoticon(':)')
smilie, I am a subsriber because I need the information but i do not have the time to generate 1/100th of the indicators.

At some point I haveI plotted the FF Opinion poll and the FF Actual Position poll for months and even compared them to the daily plots of the Sentiment Trader quicky summaries (the ones Rodgerrodger has posted) but I have abandoned the excercise because some other simple tools like volume shifts or the Seven Sentinels do a clearer job for a swing trader.

If one traded only a few times a year at sentiment extremes one would do well
but I suspect most on this board and I for one are more mercurial than that.

Following various aspects of sentiment from ST, checking the individual stock put/call numbers at Schaeffers and glancing at the FF Actual Position poll (which I participate in) definitely influences the level of confidence in my trading moves.
"Successful trading is more about Sun Tzu then Elliott." F&D

#7 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 10:50 AM

IYB, I do not know the recipe for Sentimentrader.com. I am not a subscriber.
But I'm almost positive they don't use the moon. :D
This is from a demo page:
"The subscriber's section of sentimenTrader.com currently updates over 60 sentiment-related indicators. For a list of available indicators CLICK HERE." (Note the 2 week free trial at the bottom of that page.)
"Below is a snapshot of a part of our Indicator Score page, which summarizes the most effective short-term (and intermediate-term) indicators in an easy-to-use manner. With this page, you can see at a glance exactly how bullish or bearish these effective indicators are, as determined by standard deviations from their mean values (all details of which are made available)."
Posted Image

Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 February 2005 - 10:57 AM.


#8 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:07 AM

CLK: Back to your original point. Wouldn't it be nice if the polls were historically charted? Then we might instantly see an indication of what they might imply.

#9 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:19 AM

I think that our message board polls are being aberrated by IYB.

I can deal with that. I think folks should keep it in mind...TT can be quite a bit different and quite a bit "smarter" than the rest of the street from time to time. It's always best to check other sources of information to make sure that they confirm excessive Bullishness or Bearishness.

In this case, my other sentiment measures do NOT confirm.

The best one I have is my Rydex Speculation Oscillator. This is what I wrote yesterday"

The RSO showed another rather large Bearish shift on what was a basically flat or even positive day. That's a Buy. What is very interesting is that the entire rally from the January low only generated $353 million in Bullish asset shifts, but the little decline we've just experienced has wiped out $228 million of that. Folks appear to be very quick to turn Bearish. To my way of thinking, this suggests that we are well away from a good top.


The FF surveyees are also very Bearish.

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#10 Rogerdodger

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Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:28 AM

Mark Quote: "I think that our message board polls are being aberrated by IYB." Do you mean the polls are more bullish because of IYB's bullish posts about the 4 year cycle?