Actual position poll
#1
Posted 20 February 2005 - 12:04 AM
#2
Posted 20 February 2005 - 12:30 AM
Sentiment after the market close Monday, Jan 24th was the most pessimistic it had been in a month or two.
See the chart below for sentiment going into Tuesday, Jan 25th.
Well guess what? That was the bottom.
Guess what else? Sentiment has finally turned pessimistic after being neutral for a couple of weeks.
In fact, Sentiment for this Tuesday is near the same level it was before the January low, although not quite as pessimistic.
But if Tuesday should happen to be a down day, Sentiment-wise I think it could be a buy at the close.
Otherwise we may need some more worry.
Charts from Sentimentrader.com
CLICK HERE for last week's Sentiment.
CLICK HERE thru Feb. 4th
CLICK HERE for assorted dates including the EXTREME bullishness going into Dec. 27 & Jan 3rd.
Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 February 2005 - 12:53 AM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#3
Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:11 AM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#4
Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:34 AM
Here is something I noticed about the high volume days
especially on OPEX. The high volume down days within an uptrend
were buy signals and the high volume up days within a down trend were sells.
I think that is what we got on Friday, but could get a little more strength
early Tuesday.
Tried to draw a new channel but got distorted when I saved it.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$indu,uu[e,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9!ld20][j44784646,y]&r=9914.gif
#5
Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:46 AM
#6
Posted 20 February 2005 - 08:05 AM
What, exactly, is being measured by st? Do you have the actual formula, and the numbers corresponding to excess pessimism, neutral, and excess optomism? And what is the difference in the longer vs. shorter term measure?
I am also a subscriber to ST and I thought I comment.
Best to take a free trial to SentimentTrader because it is hard to describe in detail, it is a many faceted process.
They are measuring at least 40 aspects of sentiment, some of them unique. In addition each of tem are presented in graphic format (with standard deviation bands).
The charts Rodgerrodger posted are daily summaries of a basket of short or long term indicator readings as they relate to the standard deviation bands.
ST is absolutely tops. I have never seen a more intelligent and comprehensive work on sentiment.
I would recommend evryone to try it . No I am not the brother of JasonGoepfert.java script:emoticon('')
smilie, I am a subsriber because I need the information but i do not have the time to generate 1/100th of the indicators.
At some point I haveI plotted the FF Opinion poll and the FF Actual Position poll for months and even compared them to the daily plots of the Sentiment Trader quicky summaries (the ones Rodgerrodger has posted) but I have abandoned the excercise because some other simple tools like volume shifts or the Seven Sentinels do a clearer job for a swing trader.
If one traded only a few times a year at sentiment extremes one would do well
but I suspect most on this board and I for one are more mercurial than that.
Following various aspects of sentiment from ST, checking the individual stock put/call numbers at Schaeffers and glancing at the FF Actual Position poll (which I participate in) definitely influences the level of confidence in my trading moves.
#7
Posted 20 February 2005 - 10:50 AM
But I'm almost positive they don't use the moon.
This is from a demo page:
"The subscriber's section of sentimenTrader.com currently updates over 60 sentiment-related indicators. For a list of available indicators CLICK HERE." (Note the 2 week free trial at the bottom of that page.)
"Below is a snapshot of a part of our Indicator Score page, which summarizes the most effective short-term (and intermediate-term) indicators in an easy-to-use manner. With this page, you can see at a glance exactly how bullish or bearish these effective indicators are, as determined by standard deviations from their mean values (all details of which are made available)."
Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 February 2005 - 10:57 AM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#8
Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:07 AM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#9
Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:19 AM
I can deal with that. I think folks should keep it in mind...TT can be quite a bit different and quite a bit "smarter" than the rest of the street from time to time. It's always best to check other sources of information to make sure that they confirm excessive Bullishness or Bearishness.
In this case, my other sentiment measures do NOT confirm.
The best one I have is my Rydex Speculation Oscillator. This is what I wrote yesterday"
The RSO showed another rather large Bearish shift on what was a basically flat or even positive day. That's a Buy. What is very interesting is that the entire rally from the January low only generated $353 million in Bullish asset shifts, but the little decline we've just experienced has wiped out $228 million of that. Folks appear to be very quick to turn Bearish. To my way of thinking, this suggests that we are well away from a good top.
The FF surveyees are also very Bearish.
Mark Young
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
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#10
Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:28 AM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.