Jump to content



Photo

Actual position poll


  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#11 OEXCHAOS

OEXCHAOS

    Mark S. Young

  • Admin
  • 21,996 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 11:42 AM

He and others have made some very powerful cases for the Bull. Experience has shown that it makes sense to listen to them. If that results in 5 or 6 more fully long Bulls than otherwise, that's going to change the poll pretty dramatically. I think that there are at least that many folks how have learned a thing or two from IYB over the past two years. I think even a few folks who would otherwise be roaring Bears might have decided that until it's proven otherwise, it's more profitable to trade with the Bullish trend. That's just my guess. Mark

Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter


#12 esther231

esther231

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 1,336 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 12:27 PM

CLK, really interesting work. Thanks for posting it.
When I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. ~H.G. Wells

#13 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,787 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 01:04 PM

CLK: Back to your original point.
Wouldn't it be nice if the polls were historically charted?
Then we might instantly see an indication of what they might imply.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>




RD, Yes it would. It could be loaded into a spreadsheet format
but I don't have any software like that on my computer, I guess
I need to invest in some. I think you would have to keep the
Fully and Partials separate though to get the best results. I give more
weight to the Full positions than the Partials. I think sometimes
the Partials shift a little to catch VST intraday moves.



If this channel break happens to be a false move and the market
turns on a dime and breaks the double top and keeps going up,
then that in my opinion would be the finest example of specialist
engineering that you would just about ever see, as that pattern
just is a rare event. The channel break came on light volume and
was a big down day.

#14 IYB

IYB

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 7,141 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 02:53 PM

What, exactly, is being measured by st? Do you have the actual formula, and the numbers corresponding to excess pessimism, neutral, and excess optomism? And what is the difference in the longer vs. shorter term measure?


I am also a subscriber to ST and I thought I comment.

Best to take a free trial to SentimentTrader because it is hard to describe in detail, it is a many faceted process.
They are measuring at least 40 aspects of sentiment, some of them unique. In addition each of tem are presented in graphic format (with standard deviation bands).
The charts Rodgerrodger posted are daily summaries of a basket of short or long term indicator readings as they relate to the standard deviation bands.

ST is absolutely tops. I have never seen a more intelligent and comprehensive work on sentiment.
I would recommend evryone to try it . No I am not the brother of JasonGoepfert.java script:emoticon(':)')
smilie, I am a subsriber because I need the information but i do not have the time to generate 1/100th of the indicators.

At some point I haveI plotted the FF Opinion poll and the FF Actual Position poll for months and even compared them to the daily plots of the Sentiment Trader quicky summaries (the ones Rodgerrodger has posted) but I have abandoned the excercise because some other simple tools like volume shifts or the Seven Sentinels do a clearer job for a swing trader.

If one traded only a few times a year at sentiment extremes one would do well
but I suspect most on this board and I for one are more mercurial than that.

Following various aspects of sentiment from ST, checking the individual stock put/call numbers at Schaeffers and glancing at the FF Actual Position poll (which I participate in) definitely influences the level of confidence in my trading moves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Thanks f&d, and Roger, for the fine explanation of the ST sentiment measures. I'm not exactly sure precisely what it's measuring, but I see that Jason has done some pretty exaustive work in designing measures that truly reflect trader attitudes and sentiment. That is very useful info, and now I will have some idea what I'm looking at when the info gets posted here.

Here's how I use sentiment, fwiw. I see it as an absolute KEY ingredient of market timing, BUT not in the same way that many use it. I do not view sentiment indicators as TIMING TOOLS, per se. For timing, I use momentim tools exclusively. Notice for example, that the seven sentinels are ALL momentum.

I use sentiment for reading one very important aspect of trends in all time frames, and that is TREND MATURITY. For example, in January, when the market was in a short term downtrend, I had made a determination, using SENTIMENT, that the Intermediate Term advance which began in August 2004 had not yet come anywhere near to a close - in fact it was still quite young- as it still is today. We did not then, nor do we now, have the psychology of an IT top in place - in fact far from it. Thus when the SHORT TERM decline showed momentum extremes (CCI at -300, etc) in late January - Because (and this is critical) sentiment had told us that the IT from August was still "in progress", I could only conclude that the correct trade was LONG - i.e., we were oversold (ST) in an uptrend (IT).

So in summary, I use CYCLES to define the overall environment, SENTIMENT to define how far along the cycle we are (to provide the all important CONTEXT or put another way, whether we are early, mid cycle, or late in a trend).... and then finally MOMENTUM as actual timing tool to identify tops and bottoms and turning points. The one exception to everything I've said here is that occasionally sentiment becomes SO OBVIOUSY ONE-SIDED that one can actually use it all-alone as a timing tool by fading it. But that's relatively rare in what I do. 95%+ of my entry or exit signals come from momentum readings, with sentiment serving as a guide to trend maturity - telling me when it's right to "sit tight", or when it's right to be on extra alert for momentum reversals.

Fwiw. D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#15 trix

trix

    Member

  • Traders-Talk ~
  • 67 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 03:39 PM

Here's how I use sentiment, fwiw. I see it as an absolute KEY ingredient of market timing, BUT not in the same way that many use it. I do not view sentiment indicators as TIMING TOOLS, per se. For timing, I use momentim tools exclusively. Notice for example, that the seven sentinels are ALL momentum.

I use sentiment for reading one very important aspect of trends in all time frames, and that is TREND MATURITY.



Which sentiment tools do you use, though? AAII/Rydex/II, all of the above? What is an extreme reading, both bull and bear?

#16 Echo

Echo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 2,273 posts

Posted 20 February 2005 - 07:00 PM

D,

Thanks for picking up where you left off last week. Much appreciated.

I use sentiment for reading one very important aspect of trends in all time frames, and that is TREND MATURITY. For example, in January, when the market was in a short term downtrend, I had made a determination, using SENTIMENT, that the Intermediate Term advance which began in August 2004 had not yet come anywhere near to a close - in fact it was still quite young- as it still is today. We did not then, nor do we now, have the psychology of an IT top in place - in fact far from it.


Would you please elaborate on how you specifically use sentiment to assess the TREND MATURITY, for example in January and again now. Besides the obvious "euphoric the market couldn't possibly go down, everyone jumping on the bullish bandwagon", do you have any specific quantitative measures of such sentiment that have worked well for you in the past to assess a bullish IT in its final moments?

Mark, this little snippet of IYB's belongs in the Investor University section.

Echo