16 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

on 10/18/02 i created a chart somewhat like the one below, wherein i projected a strong rally that would last for some 18-24 months and rising to the mid- to upper- 1200s, and in hindsight, i think i did a fairly decent job overall.

i feel that the end of this bull market cycle is nearing, though i could be wrong, and will say so if so proven, but from my fractal perspective, the upside from here is quite limited, relatively speaking, while the downside appears to be considerable through the end of 2006.

i realize also that posting this kind of chart opens me up to the arrows of others, but that just goes with the territory, so go ahead and shoot... but you can't accuse me of being a perma anything... i jus tries to call em as i sees em.

--tsharp

[tsharp]

and here's the dow projection for the same...

[bobalou]

WE go over 11k dow ,then what ?

[tsharp]

WE go over 11k dow ,then what ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

i think just slightly over... i've had 11,200 as a target for about a year now

however, David Bensimon, one of my TA buddies from down under, has 11,800 as an upward target...

i just don't think that higher target fits the parallel channel for the fourth wave quite as well... so we'll have to see.

--tsharp

[bobalou]

I posted 11500 last week.apr. looking good to me. does that fit in.the LT chart ?

[tsharp]

I posted 11500 last week.apr. looking good to me. does that fit in.the LT chart ?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

looks like it could... i try not to micro-manage these long-term charts.

the caveate is that higher spike prior to what i feel was the orthodox high (print high versus orthodox high)...

there was a similar situation down at the previous wave-iv low (print low wave-a or orthodox end of wave-iv?), so based on where the price level currently stands, i guessed on where to place that lower parallel line, it may need to be adjusted after the fact... twt.

--tsharp

[tsharp]

on 10/18/02 i created a chart somewhat like the one below, wherein i projected a strong rally that would last for some 18-24 months and rising to the mid- to upper- 1200s, and in hindsight, i think i did a fairly decent job overall.

i feel that the end of this bull market cycle is nearing, though i could be wrong, and will say so if so proven, but from my fractal perspective, the upside from here is quite limited, relatively speaking, while the downside appears to be considerable through the end of 2006.

i realize also that posting this kind of chart opens me up to the arrows of others, but that just goes with the territory, so go ahead and shoot... but you can't accuse me of being a perma anything... i jus tries to call em as i sees em.

--tsharp

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

just for the record... once this Intermediate Wave-IV is complete, I suggest that we're prolly gonna see DW's 17K on the Dow by 2010-11.

i just think there's still a bit more correction to be completed... as well as another economic recession, though not a depression, but the permabools will most certainly declare the end of the world for the umpteenth time when it finally arrives.

--tsharp

[bobalou]

thanks,and good job..I think all that also works w/ 4 yr cycles, but step by step.

[SilentOne]

Hi T! For the record, I agree with your projection. This rise from late 2002 is a "B" wave and a "C" decline is dead ahead. The SPX and DOW will top this month. EW, cycles and astro point to an important top right in here. The extent of the next decline is the only question. Your targets look reasonable though. Great work! cheers, john

[BovineMarket]

Interesting count. I have mine based upon Glenn Neelys recent modification to his longer term count. He sees the S&P remaining in a wave (IV) correction for the next 10-15 years. I think wave b.(IV) lasts until 2009-2010 before wave c.(IV) kicks in. Gold and the HUI are likely to go parabolic at this point. Should wave b extend further in time, wave c will be 5-6 years down. Inflationary periods are good for the commodities but bad for the S&P. S&P of 1200 ten years out would be like S&P at 400 right now.


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