8 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

last week, though i had a favored view, i also had just a tad of uncertainty wrt which of the two front running views would be the most likely winner...

so i offered a bit more bullish view on the dow chart, and my more favored, but less bullish view on the spx chart.

methinks this week's market action has laid this matter to rest, with the more favored, but less bullish view prevailing.

in the charts below, the spx and dow are essentially in the same fractal count and also appear to have similar time targets as well as lower and upper megaphone channel line price targets, respectively.

i currently favor the spx to print a price low in the ~1150 range at or near the end of the month (3/29), then to rebound to new print highs up at the ~1240 range at or near the first week of may (5/2).

for the dow, the same time lines would hold with a print low in the 10,300 range and a new print high, but not a new ATH, in the 11,100 range.

and as always... twt.


--tsharp

[tsharp]

why, you may ask, do i seem to be so stuck on the ~1240 ending point for this segment of the cyclical bool market?

welp, in previous charts, i've attempted to make the case via. smaller inter-fractal fib relationships; additionally, there appears to be a potential megaphone formation (expanding diagonal triangle - imho, a terminal pattern) with the upper channel line crossing that same price level, which also seems to lend some support to this idea; and finally, there appears to be a potential larger channel line just above the current price level, which also happens to cross the same price level, coincidentally, at nearly the same time as the previous mentioned, appearing to create a confluence of time and price points at the ~1240 level.

in the chart below, i suggest there's also fib-nificant evidence that the 1530 orthodox high (jmho) has been a fib price magnet for many of the price ranges traded over the past two years... but whonoze.

--tsharp

[Rogerdodger]

Tim, Thanks for your posts. I've been thinking again. I can't help it. I am suspicious of the oil/energy play running out. (In the short term anyway.) But what if the powers that be could spike up oil in a blow-off type move near the end of the month/quarter? Couldn't that splain a market sell-off to 1050? And then what if we should see a big reversal in energy? Couldn't that splain a rally into May. Sorry. Just thinking out loud. twt kutgwts (keep up the good work Tim Sharp)

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 March 2005 - 09:09 PM.

[Not Too Swift]

Yes, thanks for the great charts!

[tsharp]

Yes, thanks for the great charts!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

you're welcome... i appreciate your stopping in from time to time, it's sort of become a one-man-show on this board lately... mebbe i need to change my deodorant er sumtin... ggg

here's the 130-min with out the forks... i've gone back to my first thoughts, as there didn't appear to be sufficient follow-through on friday to justify the running wave-b idea...

that said, i would guess we'll spend most of this week in a b-wave, then down in wave-c at week's end and into the following week.

we'll see.

--tsharp

[mss]

Great charts and analysis, thanks. Wish I had read your post before I posted, my wording would have been different. Best to you, mss

[ty250]

I know you said you feel lonely here, but, I always read your posts and look at your charts. I don't usually comment. So thanks, I appreciate your time and effort. TY

[dasein]

Tim, I want to add my vote for you here - thanks for posting, and especially thanks for supporting my thoughts far more eloquently than I can myself. I feel we need another bond rally to complete the pattern, and the only way we (probably) can get this with a stock rally is for the price of oil to drop. future month contracts stubbornly believe the equilib price is lower, so I think your scenario has good potential. I didnt realize that anyone could post here - I thought it was by invite only. best, Karen

[arbman]

Tim, if noone else is really posting here, it is probably that they don't know any better! Great work, Thanks, -kisa