so far, in this last leg up in the secular bool market that started back in 10/02 (jmho), the dow and spx have pretty much been on the same page, at least within reason... even through the start of this week, the dow and spx were still sitting with the possibility that they would both complete expanding diagonal triangle patterns sometime next week... but the dow just blew itself away this week... UGLY!
anyway, i'll still give the markets the bullish benefit of the doubt for the moment, and the charts below will reflect the more bullish count, but the caveate should be realized, that both the dow and spx may have already finished their respective bool markets, and are now in the first leg down of the next phase of the bear market, which i suggest will continue (once officially begun) until 2007.
that said, i believe that the print highs are prolly already in, and if the spx and dow are still in their respective d-waves, with wave-e still remaining, that they will not print new highs again this year... which if i'm correct in my longer-term fractal count, this also means that the spx 1230s will probably not be seen again until sometime in 2008. in the near-term, i'm looking for a ST reversal next week, with a tweezer bottom on the weekly spx a possibility... twt.
charts below...
--tsharp
first, a filter i developed several years ago for the weekly spx... while it doesn't yet show a sell signal, it does show the continued relative weakness against the prior bullish trend and negative divergence in the current trend:
next, the 21WMAC... which as i've mentioned in times past, in bullish markets, the price level oscillates between the dark blue line and the first line above it... strong bool markets will even see the price level move all the way up to the second line above the blue... but in bear markets, the price level bounces from the blue line to any number of the lower lines below it... we appear to be nearing support now, but do not necessarily need to bounce from that line:
finally, the dow weekly, spx weekly and spx daily charts with updated fractal counts... again this is the more bullish count, giving the benefit of the doubt to the bools, with a three-wave upward move in wave-e still remaining, giving the last leg up a 3-3-3-3-3 fractal structure:
That's for pointing us to 1150 for the past few weeks.
Seemed so far fetched then.
WOW! what a week.
I doubt you only at my own peril. 
RD
