that being the case, it also appears to me that friday's drop and retrace into the close was wave-b:iv, with wave-c:iv in the process of completion, which could be finished as soon as tuesday, with a potential target of ~1163.
if this is correct, then another drop would begin, with possible lower targets of 1123 or 1098, bearing in mind that in bear markets, extended fifth waves are often the norm... but we shall see in due time.
charts below.
--tsharp
note that i labeled wednesday's low as wave-iii, i suggest that the wave-ii:iii was a running second wave, which alternated with the wave-iv:iii:
it was my examination of the daily chart that caused me to think that wave-ii:iii was a runner, as the second bar off the previous swing high of ~1190 on 4/12 was shorter than the first bar or the third bar, and third waves cannot be the shortest in the series:
a possible more baarish wave count would be a i-ii, i-ii, but i don't favor this scenario at this time.
other considerations were also given to Armstrong's cycle, which topped in 01/05...
and while his model was not created as a market timing tool, but rather as a model of cycle shifts in investment capital, it has a remarkable history of catching inflection points in the financial markets...
here is a possible interpretation of the future of the SPX over the next few years, in light of Armstrong's 8.6-Year Cycle, Benner's Fibonacci Cycle, the 4-Year Cycle, and Intermediate Wave-C:IV (imho)... fwiw, this chart (a white version) was also published last week by Christopher Locke in his weekly spot on CNBC Europe.
Edited by tsharp, 23 April 2005 - 01:39 PM.
