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2 views on gold bullion


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#21 PorkLoin

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Posted 01 August 2005 - 09:18 PM

Okay, Rubber meets the Road time. We've got a three-wave, corrective-looking rally in place from the July low, and I don't think we'll go above the June high. Looks like a low-risk short to me on Gold. I could certainly be wrong, as always, but things have lined up very well. Under this bearish analysis, we might have one more push higher -- in the next four trading days I'd sell a print of $441 in the December futures. That's probably expecting a gift horse to show up and kiss us in the mouth, however, so I think a low-risk deal is to sell tomorrow, stop on 50% of the position @446.60 and on the other half just above the June high. Doug

#22 EagleTrader

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Posted 01 August 2005 - 09:23 PM

Okay, Rubber meets the Road time.  We've got a three-wave, corrective-looking rally in place from the July low, and I don't think we'll go above the June high.  Looks like a low-risk short to me on Gold.
Doug

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Perfect :D

#23 PorkLoin

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Posted 02 August 2005 - 10:33 AM

We shall see -- short 50% @ 438.30 and 50% @ 437.80. Trying to seel more @ 441 if it gets there -- the pattern is compelling and the risk is low. Doug

#24 EagleTrader

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Posted 02 August 2005 - 10:45 AM

We shall see -- short 50% @ 438.30 and 50% @ 437.80.  Trying to seel more @ 441 if it gets there -- the pattern is compelling and the risk is low.

Doug

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I am not really a gold trader, but decided to plunge in on chart signals anyway..
Short at 438.00....

#25 PorkLoin

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Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:32 AM

All right then -- today has given that $441 price, so I'm "175%" short. Now it's just a matter of getting stopped out or seeing the :bear: show up. There have only been a few other times when the pattern looked so clear, so "textbook," and where it worked out as expected, in a lot of markets over quite a few years. Doug

#26 PorkLoin

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Posted 09 August 2005 - 11:16 AM

>>Going above $445 would make me really question the bearish analysis. Going above the June high kills this bearish count.<< We got the push higher, and the market went right to $445, then turned around. Nothing is certain but thus far the bearish count looks good. We'll see how the structure of the decline from last week's high looks, and if we get any kind of a sideways or upwards correction of the decline we're now in. Doug

#27 EagleTrader

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Posted 11 August 2005 - 02:51 PM

>>Going above $445 would make me really question the bearish analysis. Going above the June high kills this bearish count.<<

We got the push higher, and the market went right to $445, then turned around.  Nothing is certain but thus far the bearish count looks good.  We'll see how the structure of the decline from last week's high looks, and if we get any kind of a sideways or upwards correction of the decline we're now in.

Doug

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Doug, I got out halfway into the carnage. Would have reshorted if it was a fake out. Seeing that we settled above 450 for December, I am not playing any more :D . Closed my Euro shorts at the same time for a marginal hit. Reassess tomorrow on Euro - will be out of gold for a while..

#28 SilentOne

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Posted 11 August 2005 - 04:42 PM

I have to say that I am stunned that we broke out above the triangle today in such fashion. Long the miners and only because I am reading and playing their charts.

Gold Chart

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#29 PorkLoin

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Posted 11 August 2005 - 11:29 PM

Whoa! Stopped out all the way on my shorts.

So, do we go above the December high? I don't know.

There is still a bearish Elliott Wave count that accomodates the five-wave patterns from December. A first wave down to the Feb. low, then a relatively long (in terms of time) ABC, with "C" being in effect from the July low. This would be a more complex correction than what's been discussed in this thread thus far. Not saying this has to be the deal, but yesterday's action does not necessarily mean the long-term picture is immediately bullish.

Also, from the apparent five-wave decline into February, an operative triangle is now looking pretty good, with the "E" in the ABCDE displaying the "throw-over" of the upper triangle trendline. SilentOne -- the triangle may yet live, but it would indicate a larger three-wave correction in force from the Dec. high, and not an in-progress five wave deal.

Going above the Dec. high kills both those counts, and right now I don't favor a bearish resolution. The market is speaking. Purely wait-and-see, here, for now.

To all those who got long during the past month -- great job and good trading/instinct!

Best,

Doug

#30 mss

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Posted 12 August 2005 - 07:23 AM

:rolleyes: What should I say,"eat more chicken", no wrong topic, read my posts :D :P :cat:
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!