2 views on gold bullion
#21
Posted 01 August 2005 - 09:18 PM
#22
Posted 01 August 2005 - 09:23 PM
Okay, Rubber meets the Road time. We've got a three-wave, corrective-looking rally in place from the July low, and I don't think we'll go above the June high. Looks like a low-risk short to me on Gold.
Doug
Perfect
#23
Posted 02 August 2005 - 10:33 AM
#24
Posted 02 August 2005 - 10:45 AM
We shall see -- short 50% @ 438.30 and 50% @ 437.80. Trying to seel more @ 441 if it gets there -- the pattern is compelling and the risk is low.
Doug
I am not really a gold trader, but decided to plunge in on chart signals anyway..
Short at 438.00....
#25
Posted 03 August 2005 - 08:32 AM
#26
Posted 09 August 2005 - 11:16 AM
#27
Posted 11 August 2005 - 02:51 PM
>>Going above $445 would make me really question the bearish analysis. Going above the June high kills this bearish count.<<
We got the push higher, and the market went right to $445, then turned around. Nothing is certain but thus far the bearish count looks good. We'll see how the structure of the decline from last week's high looks, and if we get any kind of a sideways or upwards correction of the decline we're now in.
Doug
Doug, I got out halfway into the carnage. Would have reshorted if it was a fake out. Seeing that we settled above 450 for December, I am not playing any more . Closed my Euro shorts at the same time for a marginal hit. Reassess tomorrow on Euro - will be out of gold for a while..
#28
Posted 11 August 2005 - 04:42 PM
Gold Chart
cheers,
john
#29
Posted 11 August 2005 - 11:29 PM
So, do we go above the December high? I don't know.
There is still a bearish Elliott Wave count that accomodates the five-wave patterns from December. A first wave down to the Feb. low, then a relatively long (in terms of time) ABC, with "C" being in effect from the July low. This would be a more complex correction than what's been discussed in this thread thus far. Not saying this has to be the deal, but yesterday's action does not necessarily mean the long-term picture is immediately bullish.
Also, from the apparent five-wave decline into February, an operative triangle is now looking pretty good, with the "E" in the ABCDE displaying the "throw-over" of the upper triangle trendline. SilentOne -- the triangle may yet live, but it would indicate a larger three-wave correction in force from the Dec. high, and not an in-progress five wave deal.
Going above the Dec. high kills both those counts, and right now I don't favor a bearish resolution. The market is speaking. Purely wait-and-see, here, for now.
To all those who got long during the past month -- great job and good trading/instinct!
Best,
Doug
#30
Posted 12 August 2005 - 07:23 AM
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!