43 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

Here in mid-November, the decline looks corrective to me, not impulsive. May have more to go in the move down/sideways from the October high, but I don't think the rise from the summer is done yet.

New highs would be mighty divergent, and at that point I would start looking for a more serious decline to begin. Gold going above $480 should make for a quick blast higher, but it might be very short-lived.

Best,

Doug

[PorkLoin]

Looks like a fifth wave up from that corrective low two weeks ago may be done or nearly so. I'm not saying the big gold bull is dead or that we cannot bust on through $500. I am going to take 2/3 profits on mining stock longs tomorrow, though. There have been comments on how people are not really all "bulled-up" or touting gold as could be expected at a significant top, but I think people are bullish enough.... If we get another corrective decline, I'd consider it a positive sign. Best, Doug

[swanstkdh]

Look at the futures.

[PorkLoin]

Wheeew! It indeed was a corrective move into the October low, and then it zoomed upward. It went a lot higher than I thought it would. Fooled again. I've got it marked in a bearish way, making a fifth wave, an extended one in this case. Could also be a very bullish 3 of 3 in progress, but, fool or not, I think that's less likely than that we're ending the move up from the summer.

If we did make a triangle from late 2004 to last summer, then we could be ending up a larger advance as well.

Best,

Doug