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SPX & DOW (2 charts)


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#1 samsung

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Posted 24 July 2005 - 08:51 AM

Some nice moves up the last couple of weeks.. The S&P 500, S&P 400 Mid-Caps, S&P 600 Small-Caps, Russell 2000, and Wilshire 5000 all made new yearly highs. The Nas and the NYA are right at "equal". The Dow is "lagging way behind",, (see chart 2 below). Just looking at the S&P "04" break-out and how much it looks like the past few weeks. There are 5 more trading days in July, do we close the month with higher highs and continue the move up, or decline next week???

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The "lagging Dow" is sitting right at the parallel declining tops trendline. If it can break-out next week I think that would be a very positive sign that the move will continue..... All the best too everyone...........

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#2 mss

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Posted 24 July 2005 - 05:03 PM

Thanks "sam" nice charts and comments. mss
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#3 Trend-Signals

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Posted 25 July 2005 - 06:04 AM

Hi MSS,

Interesting comment about women/men. :) I lived in Cleveland, TN for one of my college that I attended and a friend still lives in there.

As I noted on my chart, I don't see any sell-signals on my indicators and price actions yet. Also, market is at major resistance area so we are at a critical point. A few are claiming that we are at a market top; but those are taking a risk of being very wrong.

While weekly charts do now show sell-signals, daily charts are showing slow momentum. I saw your other charts that you posted.
I keep my market thoughts on my personal trading website and your comments are welcomed.

NASDAQ is at a major resistance - Jan05 high and the three-year-triple top. If it breaks out from here, it will go to 2300, then could go higher. While my bias is short side, I am watching for price confirmation. Technically and fundamentally, I say, market goes down.

Good luck to you,

Sharon


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#4 Trend-Signals

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Posted 25 July 2005 - 06:23 AM

Good morning, Sam I agree that DOW was lagging SPX/NASDAQ during the recent trending up. DOW is at 76.40% retracement of Nov04-Mar05 as well as the resistance that you have mentioned. All indexes are at resistance and as we are anticipating a pull back, pre-mature decision could be costly as I noted on my comment. I think TXN reports today and market reaction to it will be a factor. I have INTC/MSFT sell signals. I made a comment on my web on that. Your comments are welcomed. :) Good luck, Sharon
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#5 ModestTrader

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Posted 25 July 2005 - 10:22 AM

Good morning, Sam

I agree that DOW was lagging SPX/NASDAQ during the recent trending up.  DOW is at 76.40% retracement of Nov04-Mar05 as well as the resistance that you have mentioned.  All indexes are at resistance and as we are anticipating a pull back, pre-mature decision could be costly as I noted on my comment.

I think TXN reports today and market reaction to it will be a factor.  I have INTC/MSFT sell signals.  I made a comment on my web on that.  Your comments are welcomed.  :)

Good luck,

Sharon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Sharon,

Any specific reasons for the sell signals on INTC/MSFT? TIA.

MT

#6 Trend-Signals

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Posted 26 July 2005 - 06:27 AM

Good morning ModestTrader,

Yes I have my reasons for having sell-signals for INTC/MSFT even though that could change very fast as irrational bulls buy in any shallow dips as it have been during the recent parabolic moves, ie vertical up-move with no meaningful retracements.

Technically, INTC has sell-signal based on my various indicators beside my customized indicators which are shown and not shown on my personal trading website. Fundamentally, INTC has traded up with vertical moves since the April low gaining 20%. Without the strong forward-looking guidances, it is reasonable to retrace the recent gains. Basically, MSFT is the similar reasoning for TA/FA perspective. However, MSFT does not have as robust growth potential as it used to.

What is your view/comment?

GL, :)
Sharon


Good morning, Sam

I agree that DOW was lagging SPX/NASDAQ during the recent trending up.  DOW is at 76.40% retracement of Nov04-Mar05 as well as the resistance that you have mentioned.  All indexes are at resistance and as we are anticipating a pull back, pre-mature decision could be costly as I noted on my comment.

I think TXN reports today and market reaction to it will be a factor.  I have INTC/MSFT sell signals.  I made a comment on my web on that.  Your comments are welcomed.   :)

Good luck,

Sharon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Sharon,

Any specific reasons for the sell signals on INTC/MSFT? TIA.

MT

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Market Timing ... Trend-Signals.com

#7 ModestTrader

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Posted 26 July 2005 - 07:44 AM

What is your view/comment?

GL,    :)
Sharon


Sharon,

Based on historical parabolic moves like we have had in the semis generally, we should be having some sort of sharp, quick pullback about now, but this move has defied all reasonable historical basis thus far. It's easy to compare this move to what happened in 2003, but then rates were much lower, and we were coming out of recession from the prior 2 years, starting a new up cycle, whereas here afer a year-long rate tightening cycle, we are likely just about at the end of this economic upswing. So, in short, I am perplexed, to say the least. I believe when this parabolic move reverses direction it will be sharper than many expect.

MT