6 replies to this topic

[PorkLoin]

After the big decline into the 2004 low, we haven't gotten all that much of a rally, even on a counter-trend basis. The wimpy roughly Fibonacci .236 retracement in price was matched by a similarly short time for the move up.

[colion]

I agree with the mid-90s as a likely target and suspect that this is 87 area gap filling time.

[PorkLoin]

Agreed Culion -- the green 1, 2, 3 from the July high could be ABC and we'd be on the verge of perhaps another zig-zag higher (which, from here, would often take us to 97 or so). Could be, but the move from 90 to 87 has me wondering, combined with gold's strength in the last month. While open to various counts going forward, I think this is a great chart to be watching. Best, Doug

[bobalou]

Our market did, like to go up on weakness, and I would think wave 5 could be in the 85's in time ,, xmas ? I'm not a waver.but old highs ,gaps down thier..but,,then our rates are moving higher

[PorkLoin]

Turned right around from that area under 87, and rallied impulsively to over 88.50, leaving an ABC down, rather than 123. The move up, having overlapped the July lows, improves the bullish case for the Dollar, i.e. the larger rally from the end of 2004 would not be over. Doug

[calmcookie]

Love your dog, porkloin. Soooooooo adorable. And FWIW ... yes, agree: significant implications for gold.

[PorkLoin]

Calm Cookie:  yes, agree: significant implications for gold.

CC, I was talking to your English cousin yesterday. He goes by the handle of Serene Biscuit. He told me, "Cor Blimey, don't throw in the towel on the Dollar just yet, mate."
I had shorted gold a couple weeks ago, on what I thought were the merits of the gold chart.

After the fact, I see the Dollar Index apparently in free fall. "What the heck was I thinking?"

Now, IMO (and I'm riding the loosing streak of being 100% wrong in my only gold trade in years), gold and mining stocks are most likely bearish for some time, breaking down a little to complete patterns going back to the end of 2003 for mining stocks, and the end of 2004 for bullion. BIG rally out there when the Dollar resumes its long-term downtrend, but have to wait, for now.

Best,

Doug