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spx/dow weekly...


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#1 tsharp

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 12:07 AM

hi,

hope all are well,

just a quick couple of lines here...

below is an update of my favored EW counts for the Dow and SPX at this time...

to be sure, one possible caveate would be that a much larger ( b )-wave is still in development, in which case wave-b:( b ) may have just ended,

if so then wave-c:( b ) would likely be dropping in typical c-wave fashion (imho), with another push upward in wave-© still remaining sometime next year...

also with the first count, smaller wave-d (most current) may not yet be complete...twt.



best regards,
tsharp

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#2 samsung

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 04:37 AM

Hey tsharp, It sure is "great" too see your EW post here again :D sure have been missing you for quite some time now.

#3 bobalou

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 05:29 AM

this guy does good work......,but ,will an e waver tell me what he said, and thanks,and the best regards to you, tsharp

#4 klono

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 06:14 AM

:redbull: After looking at these charts for a while, <_< Tim, are you expecting a rally through the rest of this year? :bear: And then a grind down to Y in 2006? :blink: k

#5 klono

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 11:25 AM

I think the alternate counts are: :redbull: We drop a little further, then go up until early 2006, OR :bear: We drop like a rock now. NOW might be after max pain is dealt with a little more next week, I guess? The above is my best reading, and visual picture comprehension conclusion. k ps...Is it possible for the 4 year cycle low to come in 1 full year early?, As in last week? Has this happened before? I am thinking of Mr. chief.

#6 spielchekr

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 12:20 PM

"ps...Is it possible for the 4 year cycle low to come in 1 full year early?" For tax purposes of smart money players who took 2004 profits on the first couple January days, it would be to their maximum benefit for prices to drop hard into the following weeks and hash out a volatile but playable bottom (accumulations for 2006) into the final days of the year. Then the bull might be free to roam again. If they can actually manipulate the cycle bottom now and in this manner for their 2005 tax bill's benefit would be my question. It's the most bullish scenario down the road I'm capable of imagining for the time being.

#7 spielchekr

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 12:59 PM

Just to clarify, I'm talking about an accumulation of the dip/correction/crash (insert your preferred word) into the next hot items for the next cycle, with a 2005 tax write-off on the accumulation for 2006 and for the 2004 gains.

#8 tsharp

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Posted 16 October 2005 - 11:23 PM

:redbull: After looking at these charts for a while,  <_<  Tim, are you expecting a rally through the rest of this year?
:bear: And then a grind down to Y in 2006? :blink:

k

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


below is a chart that i prepared many months ago, but as you can see... the market is much smarter that me.

what if my anticipated low for the next Marty Armstrong cycle point is a higher-low as it was in the same position on the last cycle (6/97)?

this could be the wave-( b ) low that i was attempting to suggest as an alt count in my earlier post, wherein the market drops into year end

then as in the previous cycle, the next leg was up, so if we follow the same pattern in this cycle, '07 could also be an up-year as in a larger wave-( c )... even to new ATHs in the spx and dow... go figure

but to answer your question... i have no expectations... the market is just too smart for me... all i can do is offer some possibilities in light of past experiences and a little bit of horse sense and hope that i guess correctly on occasion, so i can look r-e-a-l-l-y smart a time or two when i get one right.

--tsharp

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#9 PorkLoin

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Posted 17 October 2005 - 04:00 AM

Tim, Nice charts, and I like the look of the possible downmove for wave IV in the last one. The move up to B has lasted a long time but it's been weakening and now just maybe it's gonna give it up. You're correct about "market expectations," and I bet we'll see the market tip its hand this fall. Best, Doug