20 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I've put some comments in my blog http://entropyhome.wordpress.com, but I'll repeat the gist of it here, which is 'im still sticking to setup/comment from couple days ago of completing c of B ( though it ran on further than I expect)...but its wrong if we take out the high from yesterday...trouble with that is FED day can see volatile spikes.

I want to start posting what I call my 'hourly buy/sell' signals - hourly doesn't mean much, but these signals give buy sells valid for a few hours to several days.
I just got a sell signal at the open this morning, this is around 70% odds for a sustained down move confirming the count.

However, I don't 'trust' the signal today due to FED day...i'll start posting them on the next signal somewhere...in my blog, and copy them to one of the TT boards...perhaps the day-trade board.








Mark

[EntropyModel]

The 'hourly' Sell signal was pretty good. ...it still has another 3-4 hours of good down pressure to run before we usually see another chance of significant upside from here. My daily is on sell still, and the weekly is rolling to sell if we close down this week....so I believe that will put the Kibosh on rallies from here. EW wise we appear to need a 5th wave down to test the recent lows at 41, then a good chance for a bounce of sorts....then unless what I see changes I'm looking for the washout wave down to the targets shown. Mark.

[PorkLoin]

Mark, very nice. I do think it's likely we'll get another move down, and all the wave ratio calculations and Fibonacci stuff are in play. My main question is if we'll end up with the ABC as you're seeing it, to the 41 or 40 area, etc. It's not impossible that the 2006 high ended up a move of larger degree than just from the October low, and I think the January decline can be counted as five waves, as below:



Even with my labeling, we could just be making a zig-zag downward. My gut feeling is that we will see new highs on the year, but for now I'm watching the charts. Who knows? We could end up with five larger waves down.

Best,

Doug

[EntropyModel]

Mark, very nice. I do think it's likely we'll get another move down, and all the wave ratio calculations and Fibonacci stuff are in play. My main question is if we'll end up with the ABC as you're seeing it, to the 41 or 40 area, etc. It's not impossible that the 2006 high ended up a move of larger degree than just from the October low, and I think the January decline can be counted as five waves, as below:



Even with my labeling, we could just be making a zig-zag downward. My gut feeling is that we will see new highs on the year, but for now I'm watching the charts. Who knows? We could end up with five larger waves down.

Best,

Doug

Doug thanks for the chart it helps when discussing this stuff, I agree it could be 5 ....infact your subwave 5 looks like a minor ending diagonal on nearly all indexes.....which strongly suggests it IS 5 waves.......but I'm going with the ABC in that it won't materially make any difference until the C or (3)...and it keeps my head on straight that I believe currently its going to be a Zgi-zag.... ..the highs could be in, but my higher level count is telling me one move up wave would be 'perfect'....I'll post that nearer the time...keeping it under wraps for now as I don't want to jinx it.


Mark.

[EntropyModel]

I will update this thread until I need to change a chart, then I'll do a new one....I'm posting it on swing waves because its Ewave, and I know that has a limited audience and gets some folks backs up. The 5th wave was a perfect wave 1 =5 this morning...nice.. There is still ( or was) a chance of going back up to the recent highs in a large B wave....but i've been watching closely last 2 hours and this move up on SPY is corrective ...and so, whilst it could yet close the gap I remian confident of my call per charts above. IF we break this mornings lows this afternoon, then the analogy I noted In IYB thread will continue to be on track too. But, my hourly sell signal is nearly done but is still a sell, but the next decline near the lows that doesn't take out the lows its where that ends...I will try to post the exit of the sell, and then next buy signal time permitting. Mark.

[EntropyModel]

http://entropyhome.wordpress.com/

Comments from my Blog -

I am looking for the lows to be retested in the next day or so…and I will be looking for a tradeable bounce from there for a couple of days.

In others words I looking to trade a range bound 3-5 days, with the Gap on Q’s being the top, it might get closed, and the recent lows the bottom of the range..it might expand down marginally.



To recap the Hourly-Sell signal I noted in the blog Jan31 (along with Q’s targets) has now ended and I will enter an hourly Buy signal in the log on the next low test *unless -downside momentum picks up and breaks to new lows
---------------------------

I don't see any change the the downside targets at the moment, but the 'trip there' I believe is going take some time...with the chopping around for a while....the e-wave pattern is simply were entering a 'b' or '2' wave here in either C down, or the impulse down possiblitty as discussed.

Mark.

[eminimee]

Tuesday's low may have helped form a bottom channel line on ndx....if that is taken out...a trip to fill that gap and 200 dsma is in the cards I would say.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$ndx,uu[r,a]dacayiay[d20050801,20061231][pb50!b200!c4!c8!c26!c34!f][vc60][iut!ua5,34,5!lb9!ld21!lh45,17!lo21!lh34,13!ld34!lp21,3,3][j44242262,y]&r=9159.png

[PorkLoin]

Mark (entropy) 3:16 p.m. on Feb. 8: I am looking for the lows to be retested in the next day or so…and I will be looking for a tradeable bounce from there for a couple of days.

High-Five, Dude!

I realize that nothing is sure, but there's been some great comments and market-watching from you. I feel that short-term the market is now due to declare itself. Was it just an ABC down, and are we now bullish or at least doing the days of range-boundedness you mentioned? Or are we bearish? If one looks at bearish wave counts, there's one that's pretty doggone bearish indeed.


Best,

Doug

[EntropyModel]

Mark (entropy) 3:16 p.m. on Feb. 8: I am looking for the lows to be retested in the next day or so…and I will be looking for a tradeable bounce from there for a couple of days.

High-Five, Dude!

I realize that nothing is sure, but there's been some great comments and market-watching from you. I feel that short-term the market is now due to declare itself. Was it just an ABC down, and are we now bullish or at least doing the days of range-boundedness you mentioned? Or are we bearish? If one looks at bearish wave counts, there's one that's pretty doggone bearish indeed.


Best,

Doug

Thanks Doug...when I have time to post I like to do so ...I find it fun, been posting a few trades in my blog this week ....but I expect I will scale back on that front soon as I'm going to focus for a while on my trading...I wish I had time to share more but alas.

But I'll take the oppertunity to answer your questions to update my market view( cross post this to FF).
I was expecting a bounce on a pull back, but that has changed. I mentioned in my blog that I got a new hourly SELL signal this afternoon...that puts me in a ore bearish mindset that what I had expected. Instead I expect the pullback would not generate a new sell but would be a 'correction' in a few days upward trend retracement ( wave 2 or B type of thing)...i..e. buy the pullback from yesterday hourly buy..but thats' out the window now.

I'm sticking with the EW counts at the top of this thread for now...BUT...I am getting increasingly bearish here...but I want to see a couple more things first before changing the counts....I try really hard NOT to change my counts frequently....only when it would materially matter for trading purposes i.e. when 3 or C is reached.

On the Short Term i.e. tomorrow, its a very key day from my perspective, if the lows on Q get taken out, and the SPY retraces more than 0.76Fib of its move up from the recent low, then I will get more immediately bearish, otherwise there's still a chance for a few days 'jiggling about' in a range here.

But as I mentioned on FF yesterday, the internals are rolling over here....and the way sentiment flipped so bullish last night was a classic.

My gut is telling me the downside is about to get its 'mojo' on...but I am training myself to trade my system signals...there much better than my gut.


Mark.

[EntropyModel]

To go with comment above....I posted this last night..will put it in this thread so its all together...I note declining volume continued up today, whilst advancing finally took a dip..another day or
two of selling or sideways and this give a sell signal.

Edited by entropy, 09 February 2006 - 11:21 PM.