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CCJ, BTU, ATI


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#11 hiker

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Posted 02 February 2006 - 01:17 PM

TS - I continue to think James Dines has it correct....that the best thing to do is not be shaken from stock holdings in the uranium sector by the inevitable consolidations in the coming months/years. I think he is correct that the price trend of the uranium commodity may undergo upside surprise in the coming years that will catch most by surprise.

The downside to swing trading stocks in this sector or being shaken out of core holdings by deep consolidations to the 34 ema on the weekly chart for example....is the chance a trader does not reenter long once resistance becomes support again.

My simple strategy when I am swing trading CCJ...is always get back in when the all-time high is surpassed....and scale back in on downside moves between the 21 and 34 ema on the weekly.

I told someone recently I was going to try not to swing trade CCJ this year. Well, I changed my mind when it moved above $80...knowing I can always reenter if it keeps taking out new highs....it seemed ripe for sell-the-earnings price action...it had moved 61% from the PnF breakout in August and 130% from the swing low.

more on the uranium sector...including posts from December thru today:

http://forums.techni...vpost?id=806205

Edited by hiker, 02 February 2006 - 01:19 PM.


#12 hiker

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Posted 02 February 2006 - 04:27 PM

closed the CCJ two-day short today. It needs to move below today's low of 69.49 before I load up heavily short again....will see what happens on moves back up to the 21 daily ema and/or $72.50 and decide then whether to short resistance or wait to see if resistance becomes support.

#13 TechSkeptic

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Posted 02 February 2006 - 05:46 PM

TS - I continue to think James Dines has it correct....that the best thing to do is not be shaken from stock holdings in the uranium sector by the inevitable consolidations in the coming months/years. I think he is correct that the price trend of the uranium commodity may undergo upside surprise in the coming years that will catch most by surprise.

The downside to swing trading stocks in this sector or being shaken out of core holdings by deep consolidations to the 34 ema on the weekly chart for example....is the chance a trader does not reenter long once resistance becomes support again.

My simple strategy when I am swing trading CCJ...is always get back in when the all-time high is surpassed....and scale back in on downside moves between the 21 and 34 ema on the weekly.

I told someone recently I was going to try not to swing trade CCJ this year. Well, I changed my mind when it moved above $80...knowing I can always reenter if it keeps taking out new highs....it seemed ripe for sell-the-earnings price action...it had moved 61% from the PnF breakout in August and 130% from the swing low.

more on the uranium sector...including posts from December thru today:

http://forums.techni...vpost?id=806205



I tend to agree. Thanks for all of the updates. The risks you mentioned when swing-trading are why I don't swing-trade it. However, a drop below the low 60's would generate a weekly SAR sell and that area would also become strong resistance, so I would have to evaluate my position very carefully, at least cut it back to lower percentage of my portfolio. But if that support area holds, I would probably use it load back up to full position (or if it makes new highs again).

One thing I've noticed is that recent tests of the 34 week EMA's seem to have occurred at significant lows for the market overall (April-May and November of last year). If Fib is correct that the 9-month low was October, then I wouldn't expect the next test to happen for quite some time.