10 replies to this topic

[hiker]

Company says in CC it has signed 10 new leases for new stores, including the first store in Hawaii.

Company says in CC that it is attracting the average grocery consumer more than it originally expected.

I have listened to every CC for WFMI during the last two years, and this was about more of the same with the exception of the favorable Q&A discussion about the sales per square foot by the larger stores, etc. The company states it likes the larger sq. footage stores and that is why it continues to sign leases for more of those, tho' company states the statistical sample for the larger store model currently has insufficient data for making too many conclusions.

note the $68 area is of interest...see the daily chart:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?wfmi

has moved in AH below the recent lows.

note the consistent trend for pullbacks to hold at these weekly ma's...a sustained move below would break this trend lasting since Nov. '04:

70.97 is 20 sma
70.57 20 ema

weekly PSAR already went on a sell this week.

er link -

http://biz.yahoo.com...w019.html?.v=41

For fiscal year 2006, the Company is reiterating its previously stated guidance. The Company still expects sales growth of 18% to 21% driven by comparable store sales growth of 8% to 11% and weighted average square footage growth in line with its 14% average.

The Company continues to believe that it will produce earnings growth through sales growth rather than through significant operating margin leverage and that its historical results are the best indicator of future results; however, due to fluctuations in the number of new store openings each year and quarter over quarter, there could be some negative impact on store contribution, as new stores generally have lower gross margins and higher direct store expenses than more mature stores.

The Company continues to expect pre-opening and relocation costs for fiscal year 2006 to be slightly higher than the amount incurred in fiscal year 2005. For fiscal year 2006, this includes approximately $6 million to $7 million in accelerated depreciation and closure costs related primarily to stores and facilities scheduled for relocation in fiscal year 2007 and approximately $18 million in pre-opening rent, of which more than half is related to new stores expected to open in fiscal year 2007. The Company still expects average pre-opening costs per new store in the range of $1.7 million to $2.0 million. On a quarterly basis, the Company continues to expect pre-opening and relocation expense to be fairly even throughout the first three quarters of fiscal year 2006 and then ramp up in the fourth quarter due to an anticipated higher number of new store openings in fiscal year 2007.
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Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 2,604,690
Average Volume (10 day)3: 1,710,660
Shares Outstanding: 137.68M
Float: 135.99M
% Held by Insiders4: 0.78%
% Held by Institutions4: 88.20%
Shares Short (as of 10-Jan-06)3: 7.97M
Short Ratio (as of 10-Jan-06)3: 2.7
Short % of Float (as of 10-Jan-06)3: 5.90%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 9.38M
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the other name in the sector...new 52-wk high this week on news shown below:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?oats

2/6 news item -

Wild Oats Mkts tgt upped to $17 at Keybanc (OATS) 15.01 +0.94: KeyBanc raises their OATS tgt to $17 from $15, as they continue to believe that OATS's turnaround, which was solidly re-established in 2005, is gathering momentum at the top line, driving margin expansion. Firm notes that according to recent SEC filings, Ron Burkle's Yucaipa has raised its stake in OATS to 14.9%. They believe Yucaipa's increased level of involvement indicates anticipation of continued strong business trends. Firm also thinks the possibility of some sort of strategic investment involving OATS exists.

Edited by hiker, 08 February 2006 - 06:26 PM.

[greenie]

Hi Hiker, As I told you earlier, they will be victim of the bursting housing bubble, just like airlines became victim of bursting internet bubble. I will stay away from the stock on a long-term basis. Best, G.

[hiker]

G - I understand your view. If there is the connection that you describe, the current trend of increasing sales per sq foot would either stall or reverse...for the record, I believe the company cited $900 per square foot in tonight's CC, which is unusually high for a grocer. I have done very well swing trading WFMI and OATS... swing trading whatever chart pattern develops will suit me.

[hiker]

PnF chart and daily chart make it clear the current major support zone is 65-66, with the next at 64 area visible on the daily chart.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?wfmi

I have covered short here near $66...here are some observations I posted elsewhere just now:

The current price action relative to the rising bottoms trendline on the weekly chart is of the most significance from a TA standpoint. See the weekly chart in this link tho' the trendline is not drawn for you:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?wfmi

Failure to consistently stay within the rising trend channel on the weekly chart would change this basic TA observation that has been in place for over two years...which has led swing traders to buy the weekly rising bottoms trendline and sell the weekly rising tops trendline (these two trendlines represent the rising trend price channel).

The rising bottoms trendline on the weekly chart may now act as resistance until it is overcome again to the upside.

Of less importance than above is the trend since Nov '04 to remain above the weekly 20 ema (exponential moving average) on pullbacks. Current price is below the weekly 20 ema of $70.11.

The point and figure chart which is the 3rd view in the chart gallery link above shows major support zone of 65-66.99.

Next major support is at $64, readily visible on the daily chart.

Once again, the future price behavior relative to the rising bottoms trendline on the weekly chart is of most importance now...failure of price to move back up into the weekly price channel that has long been in place is what will attract technical traders to sell rallies.

Edited by hiker, 09 February 2006 - 02:57 PM.

[hiker]

now testing top of support zone $64-66...note the 40-week sma of 65.53:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?wfmi

200 day ema is $65.04 approx.

daily 21 vs. 34 ema bearish crossover is in play

RSI is below 30
note price relative to the Bollinger Bands.

fyi only...analyst comment from this morning -

Whole Foods: Color on quarter (WFMI) 72.05 : Keybanc notes that WFMI reported EPS for its fiscal 1Q06 of $0.40, matching their estimate, but falling $0.01 short of consensus. Firm says that while sales growth was as strong as ever, margins declined in the quarter. They also say WFMI's one-time dividend of $4.00 per share distorted the co's income statement and balance sheet in the quarter. While they believe the law of large numbers will eventually slow WFMI's superlative growth, the FY06 outlook remains robust. They say its new store development schedule will likely strengthen as they expect it to purchase several attractive sites dribbling out of conventional chains undergoing rationalization, especially Albertsons. Banc of America says WFMI's qtr EPS was in line with their expectation for stronger sales (13% comp vs their model 10.7%) yet higher new store costs (as they noted was a ‘wild card') causing a 7bp drag. Importantly, they say comparable stores were 31bps above their gross margin estimate, and new store opening costs drag will diminish. Firm raises their comps estimates to 10.9% from 9.4%. Reits Buy.

Edited by hiker, 09 February 2006 - 03:42 PM.

[Jnavin]

Your analysis is right on. Funny, I switched from shopping at Whole Foods to Vitamin Cottage for a couple of reasons: one is VC opened a store just a few blocks from my house. Another is: that Whole Foods is jammed with people everytime I'm in there -- a good sign for the store, I suppose, but I'm sick of it. Anecdotal, non-technical analysis! No charge.

[hiker]

note the rising bottoms trendline break on the 5-year weekly chart...first break below the rising price channel during the period. Is this a change of trend, or will price move back up inside the price channel?

Friday's low is almost exactly the value of the 50 week ema, which is where the summer '04 low bounced.

Intraday action on much of Friday was slightly above and below the 200 day ema, and daily resistance appears to be in the $66 area.

Does a disciplined trader take an early shot at a swing long on any retest of the 50 week ema, or give the new chart pattern adequate time to develop? A new downtrend line has developed on the daily chart.

How much reliance should be made on the fact daily and weekly RSI has bounced fairly quickly in the past when reaching these RSI lows?

Comments will be much appreciated?

Edited by hiker, 12 February 2006 - 10:57 AM.

[hiker]

more complete version of post above - WFMI - note the rising bottoms trendline break on the 5-year weekly chart...first break below the rising price channel during the period. Is this a change of trend, or will price move back up inside the price channel? Friday's low is almost exactly the value of the 50 week ema, which is where the summer '04 low bounced. Intraday action on much of Friday was slightly above or below the 200 day ema, and daily resistance appears to be in the $66 area. Does a trader take an early shot at a swing long on any retest of the 50 week ema, or give the new chart pattern adequate time to develop? Do swing shorts remain short here? The new downtrend line on the daily chart remains intact. How much reliance should be made on the fact daily and weekly RSI has bounced fairly quickly in the past when reaching these RSI lows? Price remained within the rising price channel at the time of those bounces, which is not the case this time. Comments will be much appreciated?

[hiker]

11:07 - this is the first day since the selloff that price is above the 30-minute 20 ema for more than an hour....will it hold?

the 15-min 20 ema represented resistance most of Monday....and now represents support in most of today's intraday action so far.

[hiker]

The ADX was about 43 when WFMI started the bounce yesterday after testing the October lows for two days. Next resistance zone is 64-65.80 approx.