Jump to content



Photo

My favorite oil sands stocks


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 12 February 2006 - 12:57 PM

Posted Image

Quite a chart, but the MACD is pointed hard down, and a significant correction is underway. CLLZF is the US stock symbol, and it's CLL on the Toronto exchange. It has over 70,000 acres at the Great Divide oil sands project. It also has conventional oil and gas production in other parts of Canada, as well as interests in Argentina and Peru. TomD first mentioned this one, and I'm very glad he did.

Posted Image

Similar chart for CanWest Petroleum, eh? CWPC is the US symbol, and I don't see one listed in Canada. From the company website: "Our Company has strategically positioned itself as the controlling shareholder of Oilsands Quest Inc. (with 70% equity), a private Calgary based company that now holds the second largest prospective land position in the Athabasca Tar Sands Region known as Firebag East. Oilsands Quest Inc. is the operator and under the direction of its' president Christopher Hopkins is prepared for a major exploration program starting early November 2005 as to 150 drill holes with the potential to discover a world class oil resource of several billion barrels which is in keeping with the reserves to the west."

I encourage everyone to go to the company websites, read all they can there and everywhere else. You see a lot of those "forward-looking" statements and the usual caveats apply. In the end, the charts rule, and this is a good one.

Posted Image

UEYCF in the US, UTS in Toronto. UTS's main deal is a 30% stake in the Fort Hills energy partnership, along with Petro-Canada (55%) and Teck Cominco (15%). That 30% represents a lot of energy, even though production is years away. The partnership will build an upgrader to process the oil sands product, and on a basis of dollars in stock value versus barrels of resources UTS is a great buy. There is the waiting-for-production factor, though, and you can see from the chart that it's overbought and very possible entering a corrective phase. Having the money and muscle of Petro-Canada along is a plus in some ways, but it can also be a limiting factor and on a "pure oil sands play" basis I rate Connacher higher.

Posted Image

HBNRF in the US, HAO in Toronto. TomD also gets credit for bringing this stock up. It's the riskiest one in the bunch, but good prospects are there. I didn't go with most of the majors for these picks. Imperial Oil, Exxon Mobil, Petro-Canada -- how much are those stocks really going to go up in price on a percentage basis? Small market capitalization, and the company's stated goal "is to become a mid-range oil and gas producer."

Like the others thus far, a big price increase in the stock, followed by an ongoing correction.

Posted Image

Suncor is a major. SU in both the US and Canada. Not as much a pure play on the oil sands, but Suncor's sands production lately has been as much or more as all the Syncrude partners put together. Doesn't pay much of a dividend and the P/E is 31.4 May be in a substantial correction here, and if crude oil keeps declining, SU may get to a good buying point.

Posted Image

Another chart with a hard down MACD. Easily could go to $60. May be in a large "ABC" correction from the late summer high last year and end up in the low $50s. The price of oil obviously has a lot to do with the valuation of oil sands stocks, and I am going to watch for bottoming indications in all the charts.

Best,

Doug

#2 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,193 posts

Posted 13 February 2006 - 06:24 PM

The info below is likely talking about UTS, still think your other pick is better? "I'm revising my price target for my #1 Oil Sands Stock. Instead of $19 near term, $30 within 5 years, my new targets are $28 next year, $79 in five years. My competitor has recommended the same stock telling his readers he plans to hold it for the next 25 years. " Mike Schaefer Editor, PURE ENERGY REPORT
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#3 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 13 February 2006 - 08:06 PM

Hi Russ, Yes :D it's definitely UTS. To give Mike Schaefer credit, it was his advertisement e-mails that first brought UTS to my attention. He gives recent prices and "90 kilometers north of Ft. McMurray" in his blurbs, so it's easy to find out what he's talking about. He may be right about UTS. Based on the sheer amount of oil in the ground, it's a heck of a buy. UTS really did need Petro-Canada, I guess, but now P-C is in the driver's seat with that 55% stake. Connacher is doing its own thing, and its management is more aggressive in my opinion. I haven't checked lately but I believe Connacher's production from the sands comes earlier too. The float is a lot bigger for UTS, as well. Smaller market capitalization and being independent makes me give the nod to Connacher. I certainly could be wrong about it, too. I own them both and want them both. They were both down big today, 8-9%, and with their overbought status plus the weakness in oil prices currently combined with what looks like a significant correction in energy stock prices going on, methinks these bad boys are heading down for good buying areas. Best, Doug

#4 Ngy

Ngy

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3 posts

Posted 14 February 2006 - 02:15 AM

Good picks gang, I am into both UTS and CLL, since September and the positive information, and good management have sure caught a lot of trader's attention. :D

#5 Russ

Russ

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,193 posts

Posted 14 February 2006 - 02:42 PM

Hi Doug,

I heard a writer on coasttocoastam.com promoting methanol and cars that will burn both gasoline and methane as they have in Brazil, so the high prices of fuel makes these things attractive too. With China and India it is hard to see any of these energy companies going back to the 1990 lows again...ever.

Russ


Hi Russ,

Yes :D it's definitely UTS. To give Mike Schaefer credit, it was his advertisement e-mails that first brought UTS to my attention. He gives recent prices and "90 kilometers north of Ft. McMurray" in his blurbs, so it's easy to find out what he's talking about. He may be right about UTS. Based on the sheer amount of oil in the ground, it's a heck of a buy.

UTS really did need Petro-Canada, I guess, but now P-C is in the driver's seat with that 55% stake. Connacher is doing its own thing, and its management is more aggressive in my opinion. I haven't checked lately but I believe Connacher's production from the sands comes earlier too. The float is a lot bigger for UTS, as well. Smaller market capitalization and being independent makes me give the nod to Connacher. I certainly could be wrong about it, too. I own them both and want them both.

They were both down big today, 8-9%, and with their overbought status plus the weakness in oil prices currently combined with what looks like a significant correction in energy stock prices going on, methinks these bad boys are heading down for good buying areas.

Best,

Doug


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#6 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 14 February 2006 - 03:35 PM

Russ: I heard a writer on coasttocoastam.com promoting methanol and cars that will burn both gasoline and methane as they have in Brazil, so the high prices of fuel makes these things attractive too. With China and India it is hard to see any of these energy companies going back to the 1990 lows again...ever.


:o :nuke: Holy Crow, Russ -- the 1990 lows? :giveup: :sick:

Man, I'm worried about the January lows! :bowrie:

Doug