195 replies to this topic

[beta]

Cheif, what do you make of the rising $VIX ? -- this is the main technical aspect that bothers me here.

[da_cheif]

RSI'' 5 day rsi at 1581 is low but could go lower as its half span ma is only at 21.19...until the rsi and its half span ma get tite with each other and then the rsi crosses above it then you mite find the turn...however the dows 12 day rsi at 28.46 against its 34.00 half span ma is still far from a bottom.......worse yet the dows 5 wk rsi is only at 28.24 against its 42.59 half span ma......and the 12 wk is at 43.24 against a 56.18 ma

[da_cheif]

Cheif, what do you make of the rising $VIX ? -- this is the main technical aspect that bothers me here.

the vix is justa reflection of market action.....hardly a technical tool.....its the CLX analysis that can help clear the fog......

[youmast]

Our focus on June 22...

I agree on that timing... However I don't think the market will be able to make a new high after that. Da bounce in 1270-90. That's it. That would be 70 days North-East direction, just like to Moscow, not To-Da-Moon.

Anyhow... you did a nice job, cheif. Thanks.

[da_cheif]

Investors intell Advisors continue to get more pessimistic and that bodes well for the market down the road. The % of bulls declined to 38.7%, their lowest level since the market bottom at 11-October 2002, when they were just 28.4%. The Dow Jones Industrials fell below 7,600 during that month, and there were also a few weeks with more bears than bulls. We are getting close to that now. The bulls are down from a peak of 53.2% from nine weeks ago. The bears increased to 34.4% and that was their highest reading since 28-April 2003, at 34.8%. That was shortly after the last time the DJIA traded below 8,000. Deserting bulls had been moving into the correction camp, but now they are turning bearish as averages have given back all of their gains year-to-date. The advisors calling for a correction were down to 26.9%. This group is short term bearish, but view pullbacks as buying opportunities, and long term expect the market to go up. A complete table of the Advisory Sentiment appears on the final hotline page. Historically, bulls are 55%-60% when indexes achieve record highs, and those extreme levels of optimism often prove negative. They reflect fully invested positions. High levels of bearishness are usually positive because they most often occur after a major market decline, and reflect that there is plenty of cash on the sidelines. The last time that occurred was October 2002, when bears were almost 15% above the bulls, and the readings could be heading to a bearish plurality again. During the range bound market over the last few years, advisors have maintained a bullish bias, and short term opportunities have been indicated after the spread between the bulls and bears contracted to 15% or lower. The current difference is well below that. The difference between the bulls and bears was down to 4.3%, from 8.7% last week. As this spread continues to narrow, the upside potential increases. This small difference was last shown early 2003, as the Dow Industrials fell to 7,800 and successfully test the October 2002 low.

[da_cheif]

In both the dow and the sp 500 wave C not quite equaling wave A....but good enuff for gov wirk....todays turn may be signficant as few if any are going to trust it.....its the land of the quick or the ded....when the wave structure allows that an ABC correction is over the risk of being left behind grows.....10 day arms after hitting a benchmark 150 is turning south. With expectations hi for a lower market any hint at a turn must be given the respect it deserves......todays report from investors intell was good news....just as Jimmy Rogers barrons cover 2 weeks ago was bad news for the commod bulls.......institutional buying frenzy may start at any time as who amongst them wants to be left behind........the next few days of course will reveal all. But for now the momentum oscilators are turning up out of deep oversold territory........as I reported earlier the naz was making bottoming sounds and since then its positive relative strength so far cannot be denied.

[da_cheif]

LETS ROCK...... AAII members are: (as of 6/14/2006) Bullish: 26.41% Neutral: 18.61% Bearish: 54.98% and here is also lowrisk which kinda matches aaii this week, snort 6 / 12 / 2006 ------------------------------------------------ Below are the results of our weekly "Guess the Dow" sentiment survey. The survey was taken from Monday 6/5 through Sunday 6/11 on the LowRisk.com web site. 30 day outlook: 23% bullish, 18% previous week 53% bearish, 51% previous week 25% neutral, 31% previous week

[Vector]

That was a good tree shaking. Heck, I almost fell for it!

[da_cheif]

the market isnt goin to take any prisoners imho.....the kickoff 19 trin ive seen before. jan 15 1991 with a breakaway gap.....naz led by intel and msft appears headed for the 2700 area and overall ATH.s....todays announcement from MSFT was significant... http://biz.yahoo.com...h059.html?.v=61

in that it came at the end of a bullish 2nd wave correction in the naz....and of course being a dow component likewise........all big moves up are preceded by ugly declines......so it was written and so it shall be.......

The launch from the jan 91 low after the first few days was greeted with a minor reaction that cooled everybody off....then it went straight up like a rocket......all this off course is entirely... fwiw imho BLA BLA BLA and subject to revision in case the market gets it wrong like it sometimes does in this MOABM.s...........and "da" Nawz Drovia......snort

[da_cheif]

todays post expiration adjustment to the 1240 gap in the sept contract is my prefered scenario prior to the next ramp.......