10 replies to this topic

[hiker]

4/20

rally failure so far at the next higher SOX resistance zone above 520..see the Point and Figure chart in this chart gallery for a clear picture of resistance areas:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sox

note price action relative to the downtrend line

539 is an area of interest on the daily chart

Edited by hiker, 20 April 2006 - 12:03 PM.

[mss]

Right or wrong I'm selling all my QCOM, BRCM, etc.

[hiker]

sounds like a good risk/reward call to me...a trader can be happy to reenter those stocks later on a SOX breakout, if any..until then the risk of continued SOX rally failure cannot be ignored.

We really have no idea what will happen next, but must manage the trades anyway.

4/21 SOX update -

today's SOX low is testing 520 support...rally failure yesterday upon the test of 534 resistance and the downtrend line visible on the daily chart:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sox

Edited by hiker, 21 April 2006 - 12:59 PM.

[hiker]

the 2353 level did not hold

2:00 et update by a news service:

It is also worth noting that, even though the Nasdaq is off slightly, it's ability to hold support near a key technical level of 2353 despite a 1.4% pullback in semiconductor bodes well for overall sentiment and speaks volumes about Google's (GOOG 441.41 +26.41) impact on the market

Edited by hiker, 21 April 2006 - 01:29 PM.

[Jnavin]

MSS: I just dumped by QCOM as well.

[mss]

BRCM whipsawed me twice, tried to get cute with the ema's
Then QCOM started stumbling and SOX making a possable bear flag, dumped ALL in that area.



Easier money to be made somewhere else.

112

Edited by mss, 22 April 2006 - 08:04 PM.

[hiker]

5/1

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?sox

note post copied below from 4/24 proposing the application of the 121-day time interval cycle to the price action of the SOX...note my comment about prior 121-day cycles having a history of downside action below the blue bullish support line on the Point and Figure Chart...current price action has been testing this trendline since the end of March on the second move to the 484-489 area.

Will the bullish support trendline on the SOX Point and Figure chart be broken to the downside, or will price action move above the next resistance at 520 and the downtrend line currently in play which has a current price value also in that vicinity?

SOX - major horizontal resistance/support levels based on multi-year chart:

695
680
648
592
534
520 - current resistance
500 - support below the 5/1 price action starts here
492
484
472
456
420
386
350

-------------

4/24 -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sox

today's low tested the 20-day sma, and SOX closed above the 10-day sma....next support/resistance area below $520 is $500, followed by $492....intraday lows continue to test the blue bullish support trendline on the Point & Figure chart, shown in the chart gallery link above.

Does anyone else have a different version than the one I propose below for the approx. 121-day cycle count for the SOX?

Or any other time interval cycle counts that may be of use here?

(The average 121-day cycle count can be observed in the SPX chart as follows: the March 12, 2003 low, the August 13, 2004 low, the August 3rd 2005 high, and I am unsure which is the next turn date for the SPX - the low in January or February, 2006).


Comments are greatly appreciated, but I know only enough to be dangerous about cycle counts, so please be aware that questions about this subject are best directed to more knowledgeable folks.

I consider myself an amateur in terms of identifying the start and end of cycle counts...and personally, I consider it an awareness tool...not a predictive one.

I made the SOX trading-day count based on a view to the price action of each timeframe, and not the precision of the day counts, so I may be all wet, and did not go back to a period prior to fall of 2003:

VERSION 1 of count of an approx. 121-day cycle for the SOX -

late Nov 2003 thru late May 2004 - price turned down from the late Nov high (the actual turn down was first preceded by a fakeout move up to the January high...this "consolidaton" higher from the November high was of 6-7 weeks duration, so the cylce count is questionable for this timeframe, and possibly those that follow )

late May 2004 thru late Nov. 2004 - price turned down from the May high

late Nov. 2004 thru May 2005 - price turned back up in late Nov. 2004

May 2005 - Nov 2005 - turn back up started May 2005

Nov 2005 thru May 2006 - turn back up started Nov 2005

The observation below makes a trader wonder if a downside break of the blue bullish support line on the Point & Figure chart will occur here like it did prior to the May 2005 and Nov. 2005 121-day cycle turns:

of possible significance is that the recent turns at the May 2005 and November 2005 lows have coincided with new uptrends that started following downside breaks of the prior bullish support line on the Point & Figure chart....which is where current price action resides shortly following the current rally failure at 534 resistance and the test of the downtrend line.


A separate observation that may have no use is that the start of the current uptrend line on the PnF chart is a few boxes above the price point where the downside break of the two prior uptrend lines occured to set up the later turn at 380 area in May 2005.
--------------

4/24 SOX action comments by a news service after the close -

Aside from more consolidation in the semiconductor group, led by follow-through selling in Broadcom (BRCM 41.57 -2.08), weakness in Office Electronics -- the day's worst performing industry group -- weighed on Technology. With regard to the latter, Xerox's (XRX 13.99 -0.80) CEO said that full-year earnings growth remains "on track," but the stock continues to get punished following a disappointing Q1 report.

----------------

4/21

today's SOX low is testing 520 support...rally failure yesterday upon the test of 534 resistance and the downtrend line visible on the daily chart:

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sox

Edited by hiker, 02 May 2006 - 12:41 AM.

[hiker]

for additional consideration:

5/1


http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?sox

for those that watch time interval cycle counts...close to 54 trading days has elapsed since the rising bottoms trendline off the October candles was broken to the downside followed by some brief moves up, before the current consolidation price action developed (the 50-day sma has been pointing downward for about 28 consecutive days)

.....the most recent SOX price action exhibits a rising bottoms trendline for about 7 weeks...I am not trying to be precise here, simply highlighting that the character of price behavior changed about 54 days ago. This is a heads-up only since fibonacci patterns exhibit merely a tendency to appear in price behavior:

fibonacci numerology: 377/7 = 53.86

[hiker]

SOX 5/17 closing basis update -


SOX horizontal support at 472 was approached by today's intraday low

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?sox

price has moved this week below the 50-week ema for the first time since October, currently at approx. 487...the 100-week ema is approx. 468.

note price action relative to the rising bottoms trendline on the weekly chart.

------------

the following are "napkin" calculations and not meant to be precise:

looking at the SOX PnF chart: the prior price cycle ended in an approx. 65% retrace of the upmove during that cycle.

this current SOX price cycle moved from 416 to 559... so a 65% retrace of that upmove puts a potential retracement target objective at 466....interesting that today's low of 474.79 is close to this target.

The 100-week ema is 468 as of today's close.

note that the PnF support trendline has been broken to the downside in both price cycles.

Edited by hiker, 18 May 2006 - 01:12 AM.

[mss]

SOX 5/17 closing basis update -
SOX horizontal support at 472 was approached by today's intraday low

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?sox

price has moved this week below the 50-week ema for the first time since October, currently at approx. 487...the 100-week ema is approx. 468.

this current SOX price cycle moved from 416 to 559... so a 65% retrace of that upmove puts a potential retracement target objective at 466....interesting that today's low of 474.79 is close to this target.

The 100-week ema is 468 as of today's close.

A PICTURE:



Nice job hiker,