7 replies to this topic

[flyers&divers]

would it be bullish would it be neutral would it be bearish

[flyers&divers]

I find it amusing that the bears don't consider the possibility that the market may hold after this run up.

[mini-trader]

I thought sideways was neutral.

[BearItch]

I find it amusing that you make such a comment when, at this writing, there are 5 bears and 21 bulls in the poll. I think one has to worry about the bullish side of the ledger if one is bullish out of a consolidation scenario as opposed to worrying about the last bears standing. Bulls are crowding one another it seems.

[flyers&divers]

" I thought sideways was neutral. " After an upmove sideways (at least for a while) is bullish because it shows that the bulls are still in control and the bears have not had a chance to buy back lower. After a downmove sideways is bearish because it shows that the bears are in control and the bulls did not have a chance to unload what they bought higher. There are other factors: volume patterns, shift in sentiment, lenghth of the sideways consolidation. Amarket that is going sideways for a long time may have lost the intensity of both camps of players so it may be neutral.

[TechSkeptic]

There are other factors: volume patterns, shift in sentiment, lenghth of the sideways consolidation.

Amarket that is going sideways for a long time may have lost the intensity of both camps of players so it may be neutral.

Could be. But a sideways consolidation after a strong move can also work off overbought/sold condition and pave the way for a continuation move in the same direction as before. That's why I voted bullish. The sideways pattern could have a slight downward bias and it would still be okay (maybe even better) as long as no significant price damage is done. There is often a seasonal correction into February and if the market holds up pretty well during this period, that would be bullish, IMO. Yes, I know valuations and sentiment are at extremes, there are momentum divergences, and leadership is rotating... those are all warning signs but cannot by themselves imply that any kind of top is in until price confirms. Everyone was saying the same thing last summer and the market kept going up.
JMO, TS.

[flyers&divers]

"Could be. But a sideways consolidation after a strong move can also work off overbought/sold condition and pave the way for a continuation move in the same direction as before. That's why I voted bullish. The sideways pattern could have a slight downward bias and it would still be okay (maybe even better) as long as no significant price damage is done." Of course, I just wanted to illustrate the concept in the simplest terms.

[TechSkeptic]

f&d: After re-reading your post, I realize I was just repeating pretty much what you were saying. Sorry about that! I think we have similar views on this... TS