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#1 hiker

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Posted 25 April 2006 - 11:48 PM

4/25

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?sil

this week represents the largest weekly volume candle visible on the long-term chart:

http://bigcharts.mar...me=20&x=53&y=14

the upper reaches of the $18 to 19.65 support zone tested today...down 16% for the week so far...minimum risk to 18.50 visible on the PnF chart.

drawing channel lines on the long-term weekly chart is a helpful exercise relative to the current price action and the retrace of the recent breakout.

Edited by hiker, 25 April 2006 - 11:57 PM.


#2 SilentOne

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Posted 26 April 2006 - 04:16 AM

Hi steve,

I bought some at $22 this week. If it goes to $18, I guess I will buy some more! :D

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

The SIL sell off started after its earnings release late March. I assume a "C" wave down is in effect and may have ended yesterday as the stock hit the 61.8% fib retracement with a hammer. However, PMs like to bend things a bit with 78.6% retracements occuring to really knockout would be investors.

Weird trading pattern for such a quick breakout earlier this year. I assume there is always a potential political issue with their Bolivia operation.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 SilentOne

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Posted 26 April 2006 - 04:18 AM

Apex Silver Reports on 2005 Year-End Results 08:00 EST Friday, March 31, 2006 DENVER, March 31, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apex Silver Mines Limited (Amex: SIL) today reported a net loss of $47.3 million or $0.94 per share for the fourth quarter 2005 compared to a net loss of $4.4 million or $0.09 per share for the same 2004 period. The loss in the fourth quarter is mainly due to a $48.8-million non-cash mark-to-market charge related to the previously-announced hedge position put in place by the company in connection with $225-million in project financing for its 100%-owned San Cristobal open-pit silver-zinc-lead project located in southwestern Bolivia. The charge stems from the application of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 133, "Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities" (FAS No. 133), which requires that all derivative instruments be recorded on the balance sheet at fair value and that changes in the fair value be recorded each period in current earnings. This project financing-related hedge position, which is collateralized by future mine production and thus is not subject to margin calls, will be settled over the repayment period of the project financing beginning in the third quarter of 2007 when San Cristobal is scheduled to begin production. The hedge position covers approximately 3.5%, 12.6% and 14.7% of planned life-of-mine payable production of silver, zinc and lead, respectively. The company borrowed $40 million against this project financing facility in 2006. Primarily due to the fourth quarter non-cash mark-to-market hedge book-related charge, Apex Silver's 2005 net loss was $67.0 million or $1.38 per share. The higher non-cash mark-to-market charges in the fourth quarter and total year 2005 were partly offset by $0.5 million and $8.2 million, respectively, in higher interest and other income primarily related to higher on-hand cash and investment balances. In addition, the company recorded $4.9 million and $6.8 million gains related to the extinguishment of convertible notes in the fourth quarter and full year 2005, respectively. At December 31 2005, the company's aggregate cash, short and long-term investments and restricted investments and cash amounted to $351.9 million (of which $215.1 million was restricted) which in combination with the recently-completed $225-million project financing, should provide the company with sufficient financial resources to complete construction and development of San Cristobal. Development of San Cristobal is on Track During the fourth quarter 2005, the company made major progress towards advancement of San Cristobal. By the end of the year, the company pre-stripped approximately three million tonnes of material and in January 2006 began stockpiling oxide ore for future processing. In the first two months of 2006, mining activities were hampered by unusually heavy rains and flooding in the area. The lost pace in mining is expected to be recouped as the year progresses and weather conditions improve. At December 31 2005, the project was approximately 40% complete. With engineering (90%+) finished, the company is focusing its efforts on construction of the on-site facilities. Approximately 50% of concrete has been poured. The Semi Autogenous Grinding (SAG) mill and one of the two ball mill shells have been put in place and are being assembled. Recently delivered flotation cells have also been installed. Construction of the primary crusher is well underway. Work is proceeding as planned towards construction of a dedicated port facility, railway spur, power line and other infrastructure-related items. By December 31 2005, the company incurred approximately $279 million in total expenditures on the project (of which approximately $30 million was incurred in 2004). In addition, the company made prepayments and advances towards construction of port and power facilities totaling approximately $17 million. This $600-million project remains on budget. In 2006, the company expects to spend approximately $325 million on the project, which includes prepayments and advances. On December 18 2005, the Bolivian people elected a new government headed by President Evo Morales. Apex Silver has been a part of the Bolivian community for over 10 years. The company is looking forward to working with the new administration and building upon its solid track record of industrial innovation, community involvement and sustainable development for many years to come. Year-End Reserves at San Cristobal The company recently updated its 2005 year-end reserves. This update was carried out on the basis of a three-year commodity-price rolling average as mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Results were as follows: Parameter Units Proven & Probable Proven & Probable Reserves Reserves (Dec. 31, 2005) (Dec. 31, 2004) Silver Price $/Ounce 6.28 5.37 Zinc Price $/Tonne 1,084.63 884.05 Lead Price $/Tonne 782.64 608.48 Tonnes 000 230,570 219,030 Silver Grade Grams/Tonne 63.1 64.69 Zinc Grade % 1.59 1.60 Lead Grade % 0.58 0.59 Contained Metal Silver Ounces 467,767,300 455,552,500 Zinc Tonnes 3,666,100 3,504,500 Lead Tonnes 1,337,300 1,292,300 Apex Silver is a mining exploration and development company. Since its inception in 1993 and with the discovery of San Cristobal, it has assumed an increasingly important profile within the silver sector. Its San Cristobal flagship project is located in the Potosi district of southwestern Bolivia. At the designed production rate of 40,000 tonnes of ore per day, San Cristobal is expected to produce approximately 22.3 million ounces of payable silver, 182,500 tonnes of payable zinc and 85,000 tonnes of payable lead per year in the first five years of production, making it one of the largest producers of these key metals in the world. The common shares of Apex Silver trade on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "SIL". This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the company, within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act, including statements regarding the San Cristobal project including the commencement of production in the third quarter of 2007, the anticipated production of silver, zinc and lead in the first five years of operation, settlement of commodity hedges, capital expenditures and the company having sufficient funds to complete project development and startup. Actual results relating to any and all of these subjects may differ materially from those presented. Factors that could cause results to differ materially include fluctuations in silver, zinc and lead prices, problems or delays in construction and startup, variations in ore grade and processing rates, problems in emerging financial markets and political unrest and uncertainty in Bolivia. The company assumes no obligation to update this information. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements can be found in the company's Form 10-K filed with the SEC for the year ended December 31, 2005. CONTACT: Igor Levental, Vice President Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Apex Silver Mines Corporation, 303-764-9162. APEX SILVER MINES LIMITED
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#4 dharma

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Posted 26 April 2006 - 11:00 AM

hi john, i think, as the bull in the pms continues, hedgers will be poor investments. i try to stay away from all hedgers. sinclair thinks they will be out of biz. all the best dharma

#5 SilentOne

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Posted 26 April 2006 - 05:08 PM

Hi dharma, I'm not a big fan of producer hedging to cover loan covenants, but SIL has got one hell of alot of silver in the ground. MGN is my largest holding (better leverage to silver) and I keep a core of exploration and junior companies. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#6 thoughtpwr

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Posted 28 April 2006 - 02:43 PM

This was a post I made about two months ago. I think we have seen the extremes (27 to 20) of the forecast and we will go through another month or two of consoldiation that will lead us MUCH higher in the months to come. There was suppose to be a low in silver on 4/24, which was clearly on time.

SIL Long Term Serious Money:
The stock has done what it needed to do:

Feb 25 2006, 06:44 PM Post #5
Good possiblities ...
I agree that the selloff did eliminate most overhead resistance as these wipeouts normally do. I think if it can reach the old high at about 25 and consolidate in the 20-27 area over the next 3-4 months, I think we are off to the big races. I have been holding SIL for well over a year. My target is approximately 80 over the next 1.5-2 years. If this were to happen, my only question is what awful things will cause this move?

I look for consolidation of these levels for the next several months. Holding my longs for the real money.

Good luck trading, but the real money is STILL holding your longs in the metals. EJ :)

#7 SilentOne

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Posted 30 April 2006 - 03:04 PM

My target is approximately 80 over the next 1.5-2 years. If this were to happen, my only question is what awful things will cause this move?


Silver goes to 18, 25 then high 30s in the next 18 months? It'll be an expansion of the mid-east war that gets it there IMO.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#8 SilentOne

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Posted 02 May 2006 - 03:14 PM

I got stopped out at $17.0 Never did I think that stop was at risk. I steered clear of HL last year due to the political rumblings in Venezuela. I knew there was some political risk in Bolivia. That's it for me on this one. Was this THE real shakeout. Who knows. But I am gone.

cheers,

john

Apex Silver Responds to Unusual Trading Activity in Its Ordinary Shares

prnews

DENVER, May 2, 2006 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Apex Silver Mines Limited
(Amex: SIL) today responded to the unusual trading activity in its ordinary shares. The company believes this activity is related to recent events in Bolivia concerning the country's planned nationalization of its hydrocarbon industry. The company is not aware of any plan by the government of Bolivia to follow a similar policy in mining. Apex Silver was particularly encouraged by recent statements made by the Bolivian Minister of Mines and Metallurgy in which he emphasized that "the mining policy does not contemplate nationalization and even less incorporation of private companies such as San Cristobal."

Apex Silver is developing its 100%-owned San Cristobal silver-zinc-lead project in southwestern Bolivia. The project is expected to commence production in the third quarter 2007.

The common shares of Apex Silver trade on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol "SIL".

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding the company, within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act, including statements regarding the San Cristobal project including the commencement of production in the third quarter of 2007 and the mining policy of the Bolivian government. Actual results may differ materially from those presented. Factors that could cause results to differ materially include fluctuations in silver, zinc and lead prices, problems or delays in construction and startup, variations in ore grade and processing rates, problems in emerging financial markets and political unrest and uncertainty in Bolivia and changes in the mining policy of the Bolivian government. The company assumes no obligation to update this information.
Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements can be found in the company's Form 10-K filed with the SEC for the year ended December 31 2005.


Investors See Little Bolivia Ripple Effect In LatAm Stocks

djones



NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Bolivia's decision to nationalize its oil and gas industry may be evidence of yet another leftward step in Latin America, but it won't be a big factor as equity fund managers make broader decisions about investing in the region.


While they don't dispute that in certain countries a backlash against foreign oil companies has found fertile ground, few fear an extensive ripple effect for oil companies or even for firms in other sectors.


Investors are able to discern between hardcore nationalist, leftist governments in places such as Venezuela and Bolivia from left-leaning but more moderate governments such as in Chile and Brazil, several fund managers said.


Bolivia's President Evo Morales announced the nationalization plan on Monday, giving oil and gas companies such as Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), or Petrobras , six months to renegotiate contracts or else leave the Andean country.
Army troops occupied oil and gas fields almost immediately, and Morales went on to say the hydrocarbons industry is just a start, raising concerns about the mining sector.


Several other Andean countries have recently introduced new measures to raise government revenues from private-sector oil production, as international crude oil prices have soared to record levels above $70 per barrel.


Ecuador recently passed a law designed to extract more money from foreign oil companies whenever international oil prices rise above prices established in existing contracts.


Under Hugo Chavez's lead, Venezuela passed a law in 2001 that nearly doubled royalties on private firms making investments in oil fields, and more recently forced the migration of 32 contracts to the new law and seized two fields without compensation from France's Total (TOT) and Italy's Eni SpA
(E) when they
resisted the newly imposed terms.


Moreover, leading Peruvian presidential candidate Ollanta Humala, who is likely to face off against former President Alan Garcia in a second round vote, has also been outspoken about nationalizing mining and natural gas industries.


Although these acts represent increased political polarization in the region, "it's difficult to generalize," said London-based fund manager Julian Thompson, with RiverSource Investments. "There will be very little cross-over impact,"
added Thompson, who runs a $463 million emerging-market fund.


In countries such as Bolivia, the capital markets never had a chance to function properly and serve as a buffer against government's overreach, Thompson said. The markets also failed to become a source of wealth distribution, so it's understandable to see a backlash against market forces, he added.


Alan Nesbitt, an Edinburgh-based manager at First State Investments, sees Latin America's much-talked-about veer to the left with skepticism. That approach is very simplistic, and in any event the left-leaning episodes are not contagious, he said.


"We can't deny it's here, but it's very limited" to smaller, poorer countries which are not on most investor's radar screens anyway, said Nesbitt, who helps manage around $7 billion in emerging market equities.


Peru, home to two sizable mining companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges, is more of a concern than Bolivia, said Urban Larson, a Boston-based manager with F&C Investments, which manages $2 billion of emerging market equities. "Humala has been saying a lot," he said. "That election is a concern."


The country's two largest miners are Southern Copper Corp.
(PCU), which
focuses on the red metal, and Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA (BVN), which produces precious metals including gold and silver. Tuesday afternoon, Southern Copper's shares were 2% lower at $98.2 while Buenaventura was 1% lower at $ 29.73.


Although Peru is more significant than Bolivia to international investors, the fallout from any left turn there would likely be limited to within its own borders, Larson said.


Bear Stearns' strategist Thierry Wizman expressed slightly more concern about Morales' decision.


"The most salient risk emanating from yesterday's events is that they may continue to highlight political risk in the region and therefore contribute to a dissipation or reversal of the strong inflows into Latin American equity markets from foreign investors," Wizman wrote in a report released Tuesday.


In light of the region's political dynamic, caution is warranted and remains a reason for avoiding markets that might be most susceptible to foreign investor outflows such as Mexico, with risks for Brazil as well, he added.


"As new Latin (fund) subscriptions generally have been deployed primarily in Brazil and Mexico, those markets are disproportionately vulnerable to any risks associated with the reversal of the recent surge in inflows," Wizman said in the report.



-By Claudia Assis, Dow Jones Newswires; 201 938 4385; claudia.assis@ dowjones.com



(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-02-06 1519ET
Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#9 SilentOne

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Posted 03 May 2006 - 03:28 AM

From Jason Hommel:

NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - Stock in two silver mining companies plummeted on Tuesday amid concern that mineral-rich Bolivia would extend its nationalization from oil and gas to other natural resources.

The fears were eased somewhat when Bolivian Vice President Alvaro Garcia later ruled out mine seizures, but he said big foreign mining companies must still pay higher taxes.

"There are not going to be company expropriations, of course, but we're going to assume a greater level of state control," Garcia said on La Paz radio, one day after President Evo Morales announced nationalization of the energy sector.


Companies at risk (in my opinion, from most to least) include:

1. Apex Silver http://www.apexsilver.com/ <http://rs6.net/tn.js...pexsilver.com/> --whose flagship property is San Cristobol in Bolivia. Apex Silver's stock plunged on the news, from $21.20/share to $13.50/share, and bounced back to $18/share after a statement by the company that no mining confiscation is anticipated. Nevertheless, why trust a known thief? Not only is Bolivia suspect, but so is Apex Silver in my opinion, which recently hedged part of its production to secure a bank loan of over $100 million. Losses on the hedges of unproduced minerals may already exceed the value of the bank loan!

2. Apogee Minerals http://www.apogeeminerals.com/ <http://rs6.net/tn.js...eminerals.com/> --has a primariy portfolio of exploration properties in Bolivia.

3. Coeur d'Alene Mines http://www.coeur.com/ <http://rs6.net/tn.js...www.coeur.com/> --has one of it's most advanced development projects, San Bartolome, in Bolivia. "Leading Coeur's new growth in silver is San Bartolome, the largest new primary silver mine to be built in the Americas in decades. With construction underway, this major Bolivian silver mine is scheduled for annualized production of more than 8 million ounces of silver." Coeur has insurance against 85% of a loss through political expropriation.

4. Pan American Silver http://www.panamericansilver.com/ <http://rs6.net/tn.js...cansilver.com/> --one of three key development projects, the San Vicente Mine, is in Bolivia.

Potential beneficiaries of a potential Bolivian confiscation or nationalization of silver mines would likely be silver itself. After nationalization, foreign investment typically halts; which tends to prevent development of mines that may cost hundreds of millions of dollars to bring to production. With lower production of silver, or even the expectation of less silver production, higher silver prices would likely result.

Other potential beneficiaries are companies exploring in North America.


"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#10 thoughtpwr

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Posted 04 May 2006 - 11:03 PM

Well, it has been fun sticking my neck out and getting it chopped off with SIL. It's still a bull market, I will point out that AEM was hated over the last year and has sat there and done nothing before taking off this last six months. I would bet (no I am betting) that SIL plays catchup with the other silver stocks. The length of the advance in process should be as long as the sideways action we had for the gold/silver stocks over the previous 2 years. This thing has some ways to go and I will let SIL carry on. Frequently, the last move down after a small breakout is violent down, but it is the end of negative action before the an extended up move. I will give SIL that chance, my only question is whether I want to add 20% to my holdings at these levels. EJ :(