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#1 hiker

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Posted 05 May 2006 - 01:07 AM

As panic takes hold of Dell shareholders, one must ask or state:

"Don't stick beans up your nostrils."

Translation: Think!

-------------------

I am actually paying more attention to the 54 trading day cycle than much of the rest of my observations below...have no position yet...but my awareness and finger is on the trigger...so bottom pick here or below or wait for a sign of technical strength to become evident?

5/4 DELL

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/gv?DELL

note the configuration of the 50-week and 200-week ema's...the MFI and RSI structure on the long-term weekly

a 75% retracement of the move up from the 2001 low would place the retracement target objective near the multi-year support zone that is clearly visible on the PnF chart.

today's close was only 23 cents above the intraday low...first major round of short covering may start to occur between $25.50 and 23.00 area.

some trendline analysis on the long-term weekly or monthly is helpful..and note where current price resides relative to the multi-year channels:

http://bigcharts.mar...time=20&x=0&y=0

minimum long trade risk to $20 area.

54 trading days have elapsed since the $32.24 high when the character of price behavior altered course -

fibonacci numerology: 377/7 = 53.86


analyst opinion -

UPGRADES & DOWNGRADES HISTORY
Date Research Firm Action From To
21-Apr-06 Citigroup Downgrade Buy Sell
17-Feb-06 Banc of America Sec Downgrade Buy Neutral
8-Feb-06 Bernstein Upgrade Mkt Perform Outperform
6-Feb-06 Caris & Company Downgrade Above Average Average
20-Jan-06 Robert W. Baird Upgrade Neutral Outperform
11-Nov-05 Needham & Co Downgrade Strong Buy Buy
2-Nov-05 Caris & Company Downgrade Buy Above Average
1-Nov-05 UBS Downgrade Buy Neutral
1-Nov-05 Bear Stearns Downgrade Outperform Peer Perform
1-Nov-05 Moors & Cabot Downgrade Buy Hold
13-Oct-05 JMP Securities Initiated
Strong Buy
10-Oct-05 Needham & Co Upgrade Buy Strong Buy
22-Sep-05 Robert W. Baird Initiated
Neutral
9-Sep-05 Am Tech/JSA Research Upgrade Hold Buy
12-Aug-05 Goldman Sachs Downgrade Outperform In-Line
22-Jun-05 Moors & Cabot Initiated
Buy
26-May-05 AmTech Research Initiated
Hold
13-May-05 UBS Upgrade Neutral Buy
13-May-05 Pacific Crest Upgrade Sector Perform Outperform
20-Apr-05 Smith Barney Citigroup Upgrade Hold Buy
14-Mar-05 Pacific Crest Downgrade Outperform Sector Perform
11-Feb-05 Smith Barney Citigroup Downgrade Buy Hold
8-Feb-05 Deutsche Securities Initiated
Buy

Edited by hiker, 05 May 2006 - 01:08 AM.


#2 Jnavin

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Posted 07 May 2006 - 08:07 PM

I don't like it, Hiker.

#3 mss

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 06:22 AM

:)
A very interesting chart pattern, by my set of guide lines.

Posted Image

I do not like this sector, but might take this one to my "play" account when the time comes. B)

:cat:

Edited by mss, 08 May 2006 - 06:24 AM.

WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#4 hiker

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 08:09 AM

panic selling in a "name brand" usually presents a buying opp, especially when the chart pattern looks awful.. Note DECK at $18-20 last year...I imagine the chart pattern had similar characteristics at the time to what you show now, mss, for DELL. I realize we are talking apples and oranges in company and company history and long-term chart, but had to point out the "panic" selling similarity, with shorts on the other side of the trade looking to cover

Edited by hiker, 08 May 2006 - 08:10 AM.


#5 Jnavin

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 05:47 PM

24.90 in afterhours -- after Dell preannounces earnings miss. I hope y'all didn't get caught.

#6 mss

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 07:09 PM

24.90 in afterhours -- after Dell preannounces earnings miss. I hope y'all didn't get caught.

:P
Did not buy the black candle and the "up-hook" but will now start watching for entry very close, may take awhile and may not. B)
:cat:
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#7 greenie

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 07:27 PM

How does INTC look to you guys?
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#8 hiker

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Posted 08 May 2006 - 10:51 PM

that is why I noted $23 as the start of the zone...and that the 75% retracement of the move from the 2001 low lines up with that area on the PnF chart approx. I have not yet taken a position. Some folks like a heads-up for preparation and study purposes. Greenie - I have no idea...stopped trading it many, many mos. ago.

#9 greenie

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Posted 09 May 2006 - 12:00 AM

Thanks hiker. The reason I mentioned INTC is because INTC and DELL charts look similar to me, where INTC has spent much longer into the hole than DELL. Maybe comparing their charts would be instructive.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#10 hiker

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Posted 09 May 2006 - 09:07 AM

Greenie - I see. Thanks for the explanation.

Dell is going to base and do what WFMI did sometime down the road is my FF. WFMI price action was hurt during at least two quarters...tested and eventually broke the 50-week ema for a no. of weeks, now look how the buyers between $61-64 are sitting...sometimes in works to buy a "name brand" when the chart is most ugly. DECK and OVTI are other examples. I realize DELL is a monster company that may make it not follow the pattern of these other three stocks which remain in a higher growth phase than Dell.

And I see DELL's growth issues more comparable to INTC's woes. You have a good point here, Greenie. Thanks. No DELL position yet...will see where it closes.

Sold my CLF today....looking for a reentry on further stength. Rotated $ elsewhere.

---------------

posted elsewhere yest -

5/8 after the close -

$22.50 -23 tomorrow on this pre-announcement ?

http://biz.yahoo.com...tlook.html?.v=4

excerpt -

The shortfall from the previous guidance was driven primarily by pricing decisions in the second half of the quarter that the company expects will accelerate revenue growth in the future, Dell said

Dell will report first-quarter earnings on May 18.

---------------

Dell executives have said they're taking a number of steps to boost revenue and profit margins, such as building up the company's computer services business, expanding in emerging markets including India and China and selling higher-profit video-game PCs.

my observation about item above is that Alienware computer has the gaming market...Dell does not have much of a chance here...the gamers know Alienware is the name...quality, service, price, innovation, and price is lowered for repeat customers...Dell may have a chance competing on price, but gamers dream about Alienware computers...check out the liquid cooled computer that Alienware offers.

-------------

Stamford, Conn.-based Gartner said Dell saw its share of industry computer shipments decline to 16.5 percent in the first quarter of 2006 from 16.9 percent a year ago. Though Dell shipped 10.2 percent more PCs than it did in last year's first quarter, Gartner said the growth rate was Dell's slowest since the third quarter of 2001.

Edited by hiker, 09 May 2006 - 09:08 AM.