I think new lows are on the way.
XAU Poll
Started by
The_Gold_Miner
, Jan 22 2004 04:07 PM
10 replies to this topic
#2
uncleharley
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Posted 22 January 2004 - 04:32 PM
New lows over what time frame???? Weekly lows, monthly, anuual, lifetime???.
#3
Chilidawgz
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A fool and his money... (the second mousie gets the cheese)
Posted 22 January 2004 - 04:39 PM
My thought is we test 96.11 first and then if that fails, we test around 90 or so, I will be watching volume as an indicator when to buy. I want to see declining volume as we make a bottom wherever that appears, 96/90.
Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
#4
Chilidawgz
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A fool and his money... (the second mousie gets the cheese)
Posted 22 January 2004 - 04:42 PM
oops, I am talking about the XAU. Will watch NEM for volume as a proxy. I like FCX,BGO,GG,HL and maybe WHT or CDE as my picks.
Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
#5
The_Gold_Miner
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Posted 22 January 2004 - 05:10 PM
The poll says in the next 2 weeks.
#6
blustar
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blustar
Posted 23 January 2004 - 12:33 AM
Probably in the next few days. The gold market is getting pretty oversold here.
blu
#7
PIK.
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Posted 24 January 2004 - 11:37 AM
I am watching CDE very closely during this time. Even though it is primarily a silver play it has some exposure to gold as well.
Trying to pick out the strongest fish as they swim against the current since they should do the best once this consolidation/correction is complete. 
Trade based on what you see happening, not what someone else thinks or hopes will happen.
#8
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 24 January 2004 - 12:20 PM
I saw a short term bounce was coming on Jan. 15 when the gold stocks got very oversold. So it did bounce up to until Wednesday, Jan. 21 and I got out and I'm expecting another pullback toward the Jan. 15 support or even lower. Everything looked on schedule until the bond yields (tyx, tnx, fvx) shoot up on Friday. That changed my expected scenario a bit, or a lot, depending on what the move up on the interest rates means.
Was the interest rate jump lagging the gold/silver rally this past week? Or is it leading the gold/silver stocks by indicating higher prices are in store for gold/silver stocks for the short term?
Since the double top (early Dec. and early Jan.) in the XAU, HUI, and GOX indexes, all (or most) gold stocks have double top patterns in a falling downtrend lines with "lower highs and lower lows". Amazingly, all (or most) silver stocks are still in "higher highs and higher lows" uptrend line. So CDE, HL,SSRI,PAAS has been moving higher or outperforming the previous 'not so hot anymore' GSS,BGO,GG,GRZ (and etc.).
Also the South African gold stocks and past laggards (DROOY,GFI,HMY,KGC,KRY,AEM) have been holding up relatively better than their non-South African gold stocks. So when this current medium term correction is over (maybe next month?) they could likely lead the gold stocks.
#9
Chilidawgz
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A fool and his money... (the second mousie gets the cheese)
Posted 24 January 2004 - 03:11 PM
I read somewhere that SA golds are moving as the Rand has been overvalued and is now coming down relative to the dollar?
Betel - I was flipping back and forth as to CDE or WHT 
I took a small position in WHT, a bit early. I may sell Monday and buy back after things look more stable.
I took a small position in WHT, a bit early. I may sell Monday and buy back after things look more stable.
Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
#10
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 24 January 2004 - 03:19 PM
The SA gold index last month broke out of a 18 month triangle pattern so DROOY has been the hottest gold stock. Well, someone has to hold up the XAU as the other non-SA biggies... NEM, ABX, GG, etc. are falling flat on their face with double top patterns.
Just as last year when the SA stocks was keeping the XAU from going parabolic when the non-SA gold stocks were surging crazy. It's all about rotation...as Wall Street says it.
