39 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

I was looking for a rally too.
(After reading your post.)
I sold my SPY July 3rd at 127.25
Bought back yesterday at the close near 124.
July 16th post:

If they can calm nerves a bit this might re-try a rally next week.

And some say sentiment doesn't work.

I find it interesting that we are approaching an election in November...Just as we did in summer of 2004.
Look at the similarity in the 8/34 cross!

[hiker]

timely updated comments and charts, mss...thank you very much.

[Rogerdodger]

Hi MSS, I want to update my chart. Where do we officially mark the cross down? It crossed down June 23 but when it rallied the next week, the ma cross was undone. For sure it was crossed down July 7th. HELP! RD.

[mss]

RD,
It is really a matter of choice, but from the original definition, the following would apply.
W/E 6/23 1268.37 VS 1268.45 RATIO= 1.000
W/E 6/30 1268.78 VS 1268.55 RATIO= 1.000
W/E 7/07 1268.05 VS 1268.37 RATIO= 1.000
W/E 7/14 1260.98 VS 1266.53 RATIO= 0.996

From a trading standpoint the chart below explains how I view the whole process.

The 5/21 ratio gives early warning, the 8/34 ratio hits 1.000 and the 5/21 below "0"
thats a cross down in my book. All numbers are weekend closes.

W/E 6/23 or 7/7 good enough for my work.



Hope this answers your question. Dates on the chart are a little missleading, numbers are not.
Best-
mss

[mss]

Not much to say. the 8 & 13emas are below the 34ema and the 8 is just above the 55ema. All strongly suggesting that we have a short term sell S&P wise. There are other indexes not on sell yet but very close. Several indicators are also indicating a bottom IS in, complex, but in anyway. Price has not CLOSED below the 89ema sense the upturn of '03 which is hinting that a rally is still posable soon.
My thoughts are we get a little more down thrust and then away we go. Several indicators have higher lows and higher or flat highs suggesting a rise.

CAUTION IS NEEDED as it would not take much to send us to the "deep six" or S&P 1145 as I suggested some tim ago IF 1193 fails.



TWT, best to all,
mss

[mss]

RD, the gap has now closed to withen 4.52 points. Is it going to make it??

[Rogerdodger]

RD, the gap has now closed to withen 4.52 points. Is it going to make it??

I say, probably YES!

But I think the real cross down may come after that:

[mss]

ONLY 1.12 POINTS TO GO! hang on RD it's going to be ffuuunnnnnnnnnnnnn.

[greenie]

Several indicators are also indicating a bottom IS in, complex, but in anyway.

Bottom in S&P ??

[mss]

Several indicators are also indicating a bottom IS in, complex, but in anyway.

Bottom in S&P ??

Take note of the trend charts at the top of this board as well as charts posted on FF. Think you will see, barring something wierd, the majors have formed a bottom. Nastie excluded.