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Secular Bear? Secular Bull? Why?


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#1 youmast

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Posted 19 July 2006 - 01:06 PM

seems i heard that argument about 1170 once......


Yeah, probably it was on 1240's top last year, when somebody calls for 1400 in two weeks..... :blush:

Quite frankly, I thought you hear nothing but "ticket-to-da-moon" by ELO (see below). It's a right song for the bulls who think that they live in 1980's market. No, bro... It's not 1980's. Not even 1990's.

Anyhow... I like your arguments. Thanks.



Ticket to the Moon

Remember the good old 1980s?
When things were so uncomplicated?
I wish I could go back there again
And everything could be the same.

I've got a ticket to the moon
I'll be leaving here any day soon
Yeah, I've got a ticket to the moon
But I'd rather see the sunrise in your eyes.

Got a ticket to the moon
I'll be rising high above the earth so soon
And the tears I cry might turn into the rain
That gently falls upon your window
You'll never know.

[Chorus:]
Ticket to the moon (ticket to the moon)
Ticket to the moon (ticket to the moon)
Ticket to the moon (ticket to the moon).

Fly, fly through a troubled sky
Up to a new world shining bright, oh, oh.

Flying high above
Soaring madly through the mysteries that come
Wondering sadly if the ways that led me here
Could turn around and I would see you there
Standing there (and I would see you there, waiting...)

Ticket to the moon
Flight leaves here today from Satellite Two
As the minutes go by, what should I do?
I paid the fare, what more can I say?
It's just one way (only one way)...


#2 Vector

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Posted 19 July 2006 - 05:43 PM

tanks for da link! youmast, I agree with you. Its not the 80's bull, its not the 90's bull...by the same token its also not the 2000-2002 bear. what we are apparently back in is the regular boring steady pre-1995 rise type market (see weekly log chart). 1995-2002 was one huge detour from steady growth regression line. That's it. That simple. I'm throwing out the window all the Precther sensationalism and grand secular bear market crapola that everybody seems to be obsessed with. As far as I'm concerned no return of the great bear is going to happen. Its over. It happenED.

#3 youmast

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 01:36 AM

tanks for da link!

youmast, I agree with you. Its not the 80's bull, its not the 90's bull...by the same token its also not the 2000-2002 bear.

what we are apparently back in is the regular boring steady pre-1995 rise type market (see weekly log chart). 1995-2002 was one huge detour from steady growth regression line. That's it. That simple. I'm throwing out the window all the Precther sensationalism and grand secular bear market crapola that everybody seems to be obsessed with.

As far as I'm concerned no return of the great bear is going to happen. Its over. It happenED.


Vector, Precther is probably right. We're in the GRANDE BEAR MARKET. Just compare current prices on stocks with prices on home, gold, oil, insurance, or even on post stamps for cry sake! If you count the market in worthless green paper... yeah, you're right, we're bulls. But in fact our real wealth is and will decline down to almost nothing for many many years ahead.
There's only question how to protect our wealth from inflation. Ask yourself where and how to invest? The answer for me is pretty simple. The US stock market is the worst choice to invest, well... after US banks of course. By my measure, IT'S A BEAR MARKET!

#4 da_cheif

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 03:48 PM

ah yes prechter....the stopped clock...and you wanna join that crowd....independent thinking sure is scarce around here...... :lol: ...in the meantime the nyse and the cumulative ad line of the primary market is a mile above its 2000 peak and you are calling this a bear market........ B)

#5 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 04:22 PM

I'm moving these posts over here in order to help keep don's thread cleaner. I expect this to remain civil, however, guys.
Mark S Young
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#6 greenie

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 04:44 PM

We are in a secular bear market from 2000 to now. From 2000 peak to 2006 peak, US stocks performed worse than long term treasury bonds even after taking a cyclical bull into account. We are in a deflationary secular period. People worrying about inflation are clueless about the secular forces, and are moved too much by the cyclical forces. How do we know that we are in deflationary period? Just check the short term interest rate peaks Fed needs to get to before they stop. The level in 1990 was higher than 2000, and 2000 is higher than the level at which Fed will stop now. Of course, dollar will fall from 120 (2000 peak) to 60 until the secular bear is complete, but it is not going to go away like many hyperinflationists are predicting. Get real guys !! Don't make your emotion take over reality.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#7 Jnavin

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 04:57 PM

SPX bull market as long as it stays above the long-standing uptrend line on the point and figure chart, now sitting at about 1170.

#8 youmast

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 05:35 PM

ah yes prechter....the stopped clock...and you wanna join that crowd....independent thinking sure is scarce around here...... :lol: ...in the meantime the nyse and the cumulative ad line of the primary market is a mile above its 2000 peak and you are calling this a bear market........ B)


ah yes... the stopped clock... I think the stopped clock is Maria Brainwashromo and whole CNBC crowd, including "astronauts" on this board, who keep pushing "to-da-moon". That what you call "independent thinking", huh?...

In the meantime the biggest volume stocks, those stocks that the wast majority of mutual funds hold on their accounts... these stocks stay unchanged since 2003-2004. In the meantime our life got somewhere twice expensive - our homes, gasoline, insurance...

Let me ask you, do you pay in grocery in "cumulative lines" or in dollars? I don't care about any lines when I speak about wealth. I do care that US dollar lost 25-40% against other currencies. I do care how much I have to pay on the gas station or for the mortgage... You should understand what I mean.

P.S. People in right mind can't be bullish like you, always to-da-moon... It's ANOMALY. You're not an idiot. I think you're very smart guy. Quite frankly I think you're bullish for some unknown reason. Maria is always bullish because she is on payroll from the bulls. [deleted for pretty frickin' obvious reasons] I see your "reason" here, but I can't understand your bullishness on the overal market no matter what....

#9 greenie

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Posted 21 July 2006 - 05:36 PM

Yeah, but the leaders (technology) are already in the gutter. In any case, we are talking about the secular period (12-16 years). The way I understand it is that currently we are in a cyclical bull that is close to dying by some definitions and died in the eyes of others. However, the secular picture did not improve inthis cycle, in my humble opinion. Now, if you are saying that we are in the early phase of a spectacular bull market, that is different. Best, G.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#10 da_cheif

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Posted 23 July 2006 - 09:12 AM

"But I can't understand your bullishness on the overal market no matter what..".......and neither could Prechter in 87 and a host of others in 1962 1966 1970 1974 1982 1987........and 1990.....and 1994....and 1998.....and 2002.......Tell me yuri.......when have times been better.......do you long for the "good ole days"?????... :lol: