7 replies to this topic

[hiker]

closing update -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcx

closed near the current 8-day ema of $52.23.....the 8-day ema has generally represented resistance since price moved below it 5 days ago.


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later intraday update 7/26 as of 14:18 et -

today's mid-day rise challenges the 20 day ema of $52.65...first move back to the 20-day ema since the move below 5 days ago

the 50-day ema is 53.49

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7/26 intraday update for early morning action -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcx

testing the important $50 horizontal area that has either represented a support or resistance level since February....it has generally held as support for 4 days...will it continue to hold?

PnF chart remains in a bearish pattern...the PnF chart shows that 55-56.99 represents a zone of horizontal resistance...PnF downtrend line remains above

declining tops prevail for July, following the June rally that led to an early July high of 59.05

note price action relative to the 5-day and the 20-day ema's since the May decline..today's high failed to move above the 5-day or 20-day ema's

the current price decline is once again testing the 50-week ema currently at $50.92 .... price has been range bound for two weeks between the 20-week and the 50-week ema's...20-week ema currently is $53.90

the weekly 5 vs. 21 ema's remain in a bearish crossover for 8 weeks now...the 8 vs. 34 ema's are slightly in a bearish crossover for 1 week.

note price action relative to the long-term support trendline:

http://bigcharts.mar...&freq=2&time=20
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copper price chart by week for 2004 thru 2006:

http://charts3.barch...e=BSTK&evnt=adv

note price action relative to the support trendline on the weekly chart


daily chart....declining tops trend is controlling the price pattern since copper prices peaked in May:

http://charts3.barch...e=BSTK&evnt=adv


PD's forecast today for future copper prices is of interest vs. FCX's forecast included in the 7/18 earnings/guidance data:

PD forecast today -

http://yahoo.reuters...omktNews&rpc=44

FCX on 7/18 -

open the first link on the lower right, then see the 4th item listed on the 1st page of the 7/18 report -

http://www.fcx.com/

excerpt from page 2 of today's article about copper prices -

http://www.thestreet...o...E&cm_ite=NA

Action in the copper was similarly sedate with even news of production problems at Chile's Escondida huge copper mine failing to give life to the market. Comex contracts for September delivery lost 11.5 cents to $3.45 as concerns over a slowing economy and higher London Metal Exchange inventories trumped supply disruption issues. (Bloomberg reports inventories have jumped 2,925 metric tons, or 3%, to 99,225 tons.)

"Overall, it is surprising that copper did not performer better" given the news, notes William Adams, a metals market analyst with Basemetals.com. "But the fact that it has not done so perhaps is a warning that sentiment is becoming less bullish."

[hiker]

7/27 intraday -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcx

achieves a 4-day high in opening action today, and tests the $53.80 July 17th high.

testing a move up to the 50-day ema and the 200-day sma, having moved above the 20-day ema

will it hold above the 20-day ema for the rest of today? early day weakness following the day's high tested the 20-day ema

[mss]

Posting this FWIW, but FCX is a buy at this point, in fact I bought 50% several days ago and will add if the move continues. Simple chart with lines to break and it did get a SAR buy today. Best to you and thanks fr all your posts.
mss

[hiker]

copper stocks like FCX and PD are slightly moving back up...back above the 20-day ema's barely today...not yet above the daily Downtrend lines

while copper prices make an early day run, and now about unchanged from yesterday

what does this mean for future copper prices vs. the stock prices?

30 min copper -

http://charts.barcha...TK&org=stk&fix=

daily copper -

http://charts3.barch...e=BSTK&evnt=adv

I personally think it is too early to call what the next sustained direction will be...could still go either way

it also seems that $55 may be the near-term reward, while risk is greater than $2 to the downside...I realize the near-term is irrelevant since no one knows the future and trade management is all that really matters...I am playing short scalps till more time reveals more data

thanks, mss, for taking the time to share comments and chart

Edited by hiker, 27 July 2006 - 10:44 AM.

[hiker]

PD and FCX have both reversed and moved below the 20 day ema's as of 13:08 et today

[hiker]

daytrade scalp short entered FCX on move to 53 area...target is move back toward 20 ema it move above today. stop level considers the 50day ema above where the advance stalled yesterday and reversed

Edited by hiker, 28 July 2006 - 12:41 PM.

[hiker]

8/2 intraday basis as of approx 11:00 ET -



http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcx

1. FCX gapped up at today's open...leaving an unfilled gap so far between yesterday's high of $55.25 and today's low so far of $56.12

2. most gaps eventually are filled by future price action...so a trader's expectation is that FCX will likely eventually move back to $55.25 to fill today's price gap even if FCX moves much higher first

3. note the test of the PnF chart downtrend line offers:

a significant price resistance milestone that potentially attracts sellers until a breakout above occurs,

and even more so because this price point also corresponds with the top of the 55- 56.99 horizontal price resistance zone visible on the PnF chart


8/2 FCX intraday update -

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?fcx

trading above the 50-day ema for 3 consecutive days

Monday's low was represented by the 20-day ema


Monday was the first close above the 50-day ema in 11 days



Tuesday's low was represented by the 50-day ema



PnF downtrend line is now being tested...note price action vs. the downtrend line on the daily chart



now trading within the $55 to 56.99 horizontal resistance zone visible on the PnF chart



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sector intraday update...FCX is also a gold producer and may be following the rise in gold stocks Tuesday and today -



copper commodity futures prices are testing the approx. $3.50-.60 horizontal price resistance zone:



http://www.kitcometa...historical.html



http://www.kitcometa...rts/copper.html



Symbol Pct from Yr High Trade Change Day's Range Volume Avg Vol (3m) 52-wk Range Short Ratio
CUP 28.84% 4.91 0.15 3.15% 4.78 - 4.94 221,900 2,965,100 1.03 - 6.90 1
FCX 21.37% 56.77 1.64 2.97% 56.12 - 57.30 2,512,100 5,688,550 39.54 - 72.20 1.9
MAD 21.93% 9.15 0.05 0.55% 9.05 - 9.15 700 31,790.8 7.67 - 11.72 0.8
PCU 10.46% 98.43 1.95 2.02% 97.10 - 98.80 349,800 1,902,900 47.15 - 109.93 3.4
PD 15.32% 87.07 0.47 0.54% 85.40 - 87.62 1,710,500 7,923,370 51.07 - 102.80 1
WLV 46.67% 4.56 0.03 0.66% 4.55 - 4.60 65,500 248,962 2.51 - 8.55 16.5

[hiker]

scroll to last post in this link for my updated charts and comments on today's action in FCX and the copper sector:

http://www.websiteto...29#post12439329