2 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

When your around this type of stuff for a while - you learn that instinct is everything. But in actuality, we had these items to consider - and why I thought it was prudent to close my long positions earlier this week: 1) The Central Fund of Canada was not moving well in relation to the metals - and you had the all time asset highs in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund (divergence). 2) There was too much media hype with the false breakout in recovery highs seen in September. 3) The key performance stocks in this area sold off sharply the same day of the new recovery high - with expanding volume. 4) The yellow metal didn't do what it was "supposed to" in August - and everyone seemed to be looking at the same thing cycle wise. 5) While the dollar was declining recently - gold was not rising in lock step to the dollars decline. 6) No thrust follow through from the symmetrical triangle on the daily charts as mentioned by Index Trader almost a month ago. There are more reasons (warnings) why something like today was going to happen to the metals - but overall - this is a necessary phenomenon to keep the majority from getting overly bullish too soon - and I still expect a good buying opportunity to come as early as late October - when the majority are looking the other way while being disappointed once again. I will post some longer term charts later on for a better perspective of what may be going on. Fib

[Mike]

Will likely start buying again at 50, just like last time. However, this swing could take the indicator to 80+. Let's see what the dollar does.

[swanstkdh]

thanks-that would be great. i am long these pms and the rydexpm fund. today was horrible. i just dont want to miss the better prices we saw today and get whiplashed. k1