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Traders-Talk Polls


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#11 scott in Wisconsin

scott in Wisconsin

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Posted 09 September 2006 - 12:49 PM

My concern is the small sample. Imagine if you only had sentiment data from 1998-2000. Your picture would be very biased by one direction. Up. Your date is from the great 2 years of the 4 year cycle. The bounce after the crash. 2 years from now we may know much more! Data over the 4 year cycle is needed. Thanks for sharing. Scott.

#12 scott in Wisconsin

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Posted 09 September 2006 - 12:55 PM

Actually I'm only half right. I'd like more data over the whole cycle, but the best 2 years are ahead, not behind us! Sorry. Scott

#13 OEXCHAOS

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 12 September 2006 - 01:40 PM

Randy's original links here:



Since the daily position polls and bullish-bearish polls have been offered, I have jotted down the daily numbers... couple comments about these polls:

1) The data measures sentiment, so the question is: how "extreme" is "extreme"?

2) These polls are not money-on-the-table indicators, they are votes which may or may not reflect the actual money-on-the-table status of the participants.

First the daily Bull-Bear poll since late 2003. The blue curve is a 5 day SMA of the (Bulls)/(Bulls + Bears) percentage

Posted Image

Next is the "Position Poll" results since its inception in the spring of 2004. Partial and Fully long- Partial and Fully short position votes are grouped as bullish or bearish positions respectively. A 5 day SMA of each group is derived, then the blue curve is determined by: Bull 5 day MA - Bear 5 Day MA

Posted Image

FWIW

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Mark S Young
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