55 replies to this topic

[rick]

I have played with pattern recognition (non-neural net) algorithms for many years. Earlier this year I looked at over 20 years of XAU data and generated a prediction system based on 1983 thru 2005 data. So far this year, the algorithms (based on the previous 20 years data) have been doing quite well. It is not always long or short, sometimes it liqudates and awaites another signal. For example, it was long on 3/15, liquidated on 4/6, but went back long on 4/7... and then liquidated on 5/2 and was in cash until 5/19. For 2006, basis the XAU: YTD... up + 95.8% 1/1/06 - 5/10/06 (the peak)... up + 58.3% 5/10/06 - 10/13/06... up + 23.7% recent signals: 9/8 buy 140.82 10/2 liq 129.18 10/9 sell 123.53 10/11 buy 122.14 10/16 sell The XAU Pattern Recognition system WILL give a sell on the close monday, 10/16. ;-) Rick

[JGavin]

Nice work!Already down 6.85 Tuesday. GLTA

[johngeorge]

I have played with pattern recognition (non-neural net) algorithms for many years. Earlier this year I looked at over 20 years of XAU data and generated a prediction system based on 1983 thru 2005 data.
So far this year, the algorithms (based on the previous 20 years data) have been doing quite well.
It is not always long or short, sometimes it liqudates and awaites another signal. For example, it was long on 3/15, liquidated on 4/6, but went back long on 4/7... and then liquidated on 5/2 and was in cash until 5/19.

For 2006, basis the XAU:
YTD... up + 95.8%
1/1/06 - 5/10/06 (the peak)... up + 58.3%
5/10/06 - 10/13/06... up + 23.7%

recent signals:
9/8 buy 140.82
10/2 liq 129.18
10/9 sell 123.53
10/11 buy 122.14
10/16 sell

The XAU Pattern Recognition system WILL give a sell on the close monday, 10/16.
;-)
Rick

Sure looks like you found yourself a winner Rick. Thank you for posting.

Edited by johngeorge, 17 October 2006 - 02:54 PM.

[rick]

Although I have been reading a lot recently that Gold is ready to start moving back up, the XAU pattern recognition is not getting excited, at least just yet. Looks like we would need at least about 3 more days before it could possibly give a buy signal. Rick

[mmm]

thanks for the update. There has been no follow through since it broke above its shorter term moving averages. That is not not good until it can have follow through. Dennis

[rick]

Still short and can not switch to Long before Wednesday's close. Rick

[rick]

Predictions still weak. No possible buy signal before Friday's close Rick

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for the update.

[rick]

XAU predictions are looking better, but as of right now, no buy signal is possible before Tuesday's close. I should say that the XAU pattern recognition algorithm looks out a couple weeks. It is not a system that trys to nail down the exact turning points, but rather looks for a trend. Definitely not for day traders. Rick

[rick]

Pattern prediction says the earliest buy signal could be the close on Wednesday. Still SHORT Rick