U.TO, a commodity fund that buys and stores uranium, will benefit if these forecasts come to pass:
new historic high reached today is marked
uranium forecasts by an analyst interviewed on CNBC today
Started by
hiker
, Nov 01 2006 04:02 PM
6 replies to this topic
#1
hiker
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Posted 01 November 2006 - 04:02 PM
CNBC interviewed an analyst with a Canadian firm that has long covered the sector in my experience....the analyst forecasts $75 for the spot uranium price by year end, and $110 to 120 for 2007 because of the delay announced recently by CCJ for its Cigar Lake project progress toward production status. The analyst likes strathmore minerals and energy metals and energy resources of Australia, which trades only on the Australian exchange.
U.TO, a commodity fund that buys and stores uranium, will benefit if these forecasts come to pass:
new historic high reached today is marked
U.TO, a commodity fund that buys and stores uranium, will benefit if these forecasts come to pass:
new historic high reached today is marked
#2
SilentOne
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Posted 01 November 2006 - 06:55 PM
Hi hiker,
It all looks a little frothy to me. Look where the red line on the ADX sits.
cheers,
john
It all looks a little frothy to me. Look where the red line on the ADX sits.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#3
PorkLoin
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Posted 02 November 2006 - 07:43 AM
Hiker, there's only 8 weeks and 3 days left in 2006 now, so $75 by year end is a *Fearless Forecast*. That would be an exact double during the year -- it was $37 or $37.50 as 2006 came online. Or should I say onstream?
Sounds good to me. Cigar Lake was supposed to provide 17% of world uranium at some point -- that came from the inteview you mentioned or a different one (I forgot already) -- but it's obviously a significant deal.
John, I think it's gotta take a breather here. Wouldn't have to be much, though, maybe just go sideways for a bit. The ADX red line would come up a bit (though it doesn't have to, much), and the black could keep flattening out and roll over, and things still be quite bullish overall. For the 14 period ADX I've seen it just meander in the 20 to 40 area while further big moves occur. I'm thinking of one that Hiker will recognize -- I saw him mention it back when it was under 31.
Last week's strong move popped outside normal Bollinger Bands but we're already back inside. The persistence of trends can be amazing....
Best,
Doug
Sounds good to me. Cigar Lake was supposed to provide 17% of world uranium at some point -- that came from the inteview you mentioned or a different one (I forgot already) -- but it's obviously a significant deal.
John, I think it's gotta take a breather here. Wouldn't have to be much, though, maybe just go sideways for a bit. The ADX red line would come up a bit (though it doesn't have to, much), and the black could keep flattening out and roll over, and things still be quite bullish overall. For the 14 period ADX I've seen it just meander in the 20 to 40 area while further big moves occur. I'm thinking of one that Hiker will recognize -- I saw him mention it back when it was under 31.
Last week's strong move popped outside normal Bollinger Bands but we're already back inside. The persistence of trends can be amazing....
Best,
Doug
#4
hiker
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Posted 02 November 2006 - 06:30 PM
Doug and John...I am curious about your thoughts about the uranium juniors now that public visibility is increasing and money inflows have increased since the Cigar Lake delay was announced?
I sold everything in the sector this week, except for U.TO...but am neutral and undecided near-term about the sector...this is the reason for my question.
thanks for your continued thoughts on the sector.
Edited by hiker, 02 November 2006 - 06:31 PM.
#5
PorkLoin
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Posted 02 November 2006 - 06:55 PM
Hiker, I greatly respect your abilities and well remember your comments in the days before the stock market high in May. You said you were almost entirely out of longs, and that was a heck of a call.
So now you're scarin' the livin' doo-doo out of me... 
You have your table-pounders and glad-handers and oft-emotional people like me who have been posting a lot about uranium, but I don't think the public visibility is all that high yet. As long as uranium prices increase, I will be loathe to sell. If there is a parabolic rise, I think it is still to come.
I do see some of the juniors weakening this week, though. Your approach is different than mine, although I applaud your long hold of those juniors. I'd like to see an uranium ETF/Index and more headlines and some of what I consider a real steady drumbeat of news about it before I look to sell.
With stocks like Mega and Laramide that haven't really broken out yet, I'm going to wait and see what happens. I may try to trade in and out, but recent sector momentum has been strong enough that for my time frame (weeks/months at the least) I don't think there's enough confirmation that the run is over.
I also question whether institutional money has flowed in earnest yet. Perhaps with Cameco, Rio Tinto, etc., but for most of my holdings I would expect not. As some of them become producers or bigger producers I want to be there. I also realize this is just speculation and fundamental thinking.
And then you get weird deals like URRE... To see it leap past $4 and the downtrend line, etc., surprised the heck out of me. All in all I think the surprises will be to the upside in the sector.
Best,
Doug
You have your table-pounders and glad-handers and oft-emotional people like me who have been posting a lot about uranium, but I don't think the public visibility is all that high yet. As long as uranium prices increase, I will be loathe to sell. If there is a parabolic rise, I think it is still to come.
I do see some of the juniors weakening this week, though. Your approach is different than mine, although I applaud your long hold of those juniors. I'd like to see an uranium ETF/Index and more headlines and some of what I consider a real steady drumbeat of news about it before I look to sell.
With stocks like Mega and Laramide that haven't really broken out yet, I'm going to wait and see what happens. I may try to trade in and out, but recent sector momentum has been strong enough that for my time frame (weeks/months at the least) I don't think there's enough confirmation that the run is over.
I also question whether institutional money has flowed in earnest yet. Perhaps with Cameco, Rio Tinto, etc., but for most of my holdings I would expect not. As some of them become producers or bigger producers I want to be there. I also realize this is just speculation and fundamental thinking.
And then you get weird deals like URRE... To see it leap past $4 and the downtrend line, etc., surprised the heck out of me. All in all I think the surprises will be to the upside in the sector.
Best,
Doug
#6
SilentOne
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Posted 03 November 2006 - 05:49 AM
Hiker,
I've not really followed the uranium sector for a while. Bob Hoye seems to be a very good job in this sector and he has been bullish for so long.
http://www.321energy...hoye102206.html
The thing that scares me in this space is the number of exploration companies (at last count +200??) and the number of juniors that switched from metals or whatever they were mining to uranium. Plus, I see oil and gas in a bear phase into at least next year, so one would expect that to dampen the enthusiam for energy plays I would think.
Two stocks to watch right now are CCJ and USU. Both are in downtrends (dailies and weeklies on sells) and if they don't find support, that may be a leading indicator for the sector. CCJ at $32ish will be key.
cheers,
john
I've not really followed the uranium sector for a while. Bob Hoye seems to be a very good job in this sector and he has been bullish for so long.
http://www.321energy...hoye102206.html
The thing that scares me in this space is the number of exploration companies (at last count +200??) and the number of juniors that switched from metals or whatever they were mining to uranium. Plus, I see oil and gas in a bear phase into at least next year, so one would expect that to dampen the enthusiam for energy plays I would think.
Two stocks to watch right now are CCJ and USU. Both are in downtrends (dailies and weeklies on sells) and if they don't find support, that may be a leading indicator for the sector. CCJ at $32ish will be key.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#7
hiker
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Posted 03 November 2006 - 08:07 PM
thanks John & Doug for your thoughts
James Dines, the newsletter author that covers the uranium sector, appeared tonight on the Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas...among other things, he said he expects MGA.TO to be one of the biggest winners in the future.
transcript of the 10/5 interview of James Dines -
http://www.pbs.org/n...scripts/051021/
James Dines, the newsletter author that covers the uranium sector, appeared tonight on the Nightly Business Report with Paul Kangas...among other things, he said he expects MGA.TO to be one of the biggest winners in the future.
transcript of the 10/5 interview of James Dines -
http://www.pbs.org/n...scripts/051021/
