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Setting up to go short


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#1 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 07 February 2004 - 11:02 AM

The Gold Miner indicators are still pointing down and if you look at the prospector indicator on the equity trend chart you can see that there is room to move lower. Based on the Elliott Wave counts the XAU is bouncing in wave B as a prelude to a short entry. The Gold Miner suggests more downside is possible but will not trigger a short signal. The system also suggests that the XAU is entering oversold territory from a monthly perspective. The X-Dev 3 day rule has put the XAU in a confirmed downtrend and if you use X-Dev as an index timing tool the next sell signal would also be a potential short entry signal as well.

My mini analysis would read as follows:

Gold Miner - Bearish
X-Dev - Bearish
Elliott Wave - Bearish

= short trades on the XAU would produce the best odds once short term indicators become overbought.


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Looking at the P&F chart the Low Pole Reversal is still in tact but the XAU is hitting trend line resistance. As long as the P&F price stays below the trend line the price objective is 80 and signaling that short trades are best.

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#2 hiker

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Posted 07 February 2004 - 11:25 AM

GM - thanks for this great info. Do you extend the thinking that XAU is likely setting up for a sell signal to the miners as well? I noticed that many posters have been adding to longs recently. thanks!

#3 nado

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Posted 07 February 2004 - 12:33 PM

Hi Gold Miner I alawys read your posts with great interest, this time i disagree with you. i think gold will go uptrend for 1st week of april then we will forget gold for next half of the year. Thanks :)

#4 uncleharley

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Posted 07 February 2004 - 10:51 PM

:huh: I still believe in the old adage "don't fight the fed." With 7 most powerful "Feds" on the planet saying that the USD has to stabelize, I think gold is going to go down. From a T/A point of view, the declining volume in futures contracts for silver and gold indicates a lack of interest and should lead to declining prices. jmho :blink:

#5 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 08 February 2004 - 08:47 AM

Hi Gold Miner
I alawys read your posts with great interest, this time i disagree with you. i think gold will go uptrend for 1st week of april then we will forget gold for next half of the year.

Thanks :)

That's ok Nado, I can't tell the future and I'm just posting what I see in the charts. I try to keep an open mind because I know that I don't own the holy grail. When it comes to estimating the time frame of these moves I tend to be early which is a result of my lack patience. I do want to note that a short position based on Ryan's EW counts would be considered VST (very short term) which would take the XAU to a new low, after that I would make a wild guess that the index bases for a few months before choosing a new direction similar to the previous pattern.

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#6 The_Gold_Miner

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Posted 08 February 2004 - 09:16 AM

GM - thanks for this great info.

Do you extend the thinking that XAU is likely setting up for a sell signal to the miners as well? I noticed that many posters have been adding to longs recently.

thanks!

Hiker, if your refering to gold and silver mining companies when you say "miners" I would say yes I think they sell off more. On a few boards I frequent folks had bought last week and with the recent pop they should be break even or in the black slightly but the ST trend is down which makes long trades risky. If these guys are adding to long term ports then I would say that they selected a reasonable area to enter. It's easy to say someone goofed after the fact but I remember when they were posting about their purchases and thought that they could be right and we continue up from there. Only time will tell.. lol

#7 Rogerdodger

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Posted 08 February 2004 - 01:06 PM

Do you see big resistance right here @ 101 on $XAU.
Ted Burge on Stockcharts.com shows a double top "M" on the $xau with 101 being an important point. Check it out for yourself. It's the 3rd chart down.
http://stockcharts.c...et?obj=ID445101

#8 stockbucks_coffee

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Posted 08 February 2004 - 01:27 PM

good charts there fellow members... just knew the xau/hui was due for an oversold bounce here for the short term (s/t). i was debating whether the m/t downtrend, since Dec., has ended and was turning up. Or it's still down but just getting a short-covering rally. plus... is Friday was a very good rally. negative... interest rate turned down (rising rates usually good for gold/silver) unknown... dollar m/t bottomed (bad for gold) or more downside (good for gold) will see this week whether i'll hold on to positions OR sell them and then short, depending on what the dollar and interest rates do.

#9 hiker

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Posted 08 February 2004 - 01:30 PM

thanks, Gold Miner, and yes I meant the PM miners. Your thoughts made sense to me... I have not yet chosen to enter the mining stocks long. Am not interested in entering until the evidence starts to build that the potential upside is worth the risk of potentially being rangebound in the PM miners. It did not bother me to miss playing 4 and 5% moves on the gold mining stocks Friday. Was daytrading similar moves in other sectors.

#10 Regent

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Posted 09 February 2004 - 03:46 PM

Miner, thanx for the headsup. Because of your post I held back entering a long position in Precious metals. Inspite a runup of $2.00 plus in gold today, the XAU cant seem to break thru the 101 level decisively. Short term at least there may be further consolidation.
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