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Qs 36.5 in two weeks??


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#1 greenie

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:18 PM

People do not like me forecasting real estate prices. So, let me stick to Qs. I am seeing a pattern. It can take Qs to 36.5 in 15-16 days (counting trading days, not holidays). Last part of the decline will be sharp and after new year. I do not have as much confidence in this call as the forecast of California real estate prices (at least 70% drop).
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It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#2 dcengr

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:20 PM

Predictions without analysis on how you derived it is useless...
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#3 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:21 PM

brave FF call, greenie... fyi, for those of us that take it one day at a time: QQQQ supports at: 43.34 42.67 note the 5ma vs 20 ma on the 13, 60, 240 minute charts and the daily....have started using Jae Yu's trading system which is the 3 shift 3 ema vs the 5 sma and the 20 sma on the various time periods, 3, 13, 60 minute and longer. I have been short QQQQ's for a while...not predicting what the next move will be, but am staying short unless stopped out at 43.67 which will take me out with a good profit. his book is at undergroundtrader.com may forget about stop and just close this short today..we will see.

Edited by hiker, 21 December 2006 - 02:30 PM.


#4 greenie

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:37 PM

Predictions without analysis on how you derived it is useless...



Combination of several things -
price pattern and momentum on Qs:
Looks like there will be downside acceleration now.


VXN:
double bottom with divergence in momentum. upside acceleration now? I have similar sell signal on TRINQ.

leaders:
Look at AAPL, GOOG, SOX.


sentiment:
when Qs dropped today, there was some temporary rise in $CPC, but now it seems like dip buyers back in action. Down day and more call buying (CPC down) - what does that tell you? Nobody expects a decline.


seasonality:
it is out of whack this year. right time for a drop.

general context:
My calculation shows recession has started. 4th quarter GDP growth will be 0% that will be revised downward.

News context:
News for the decline will be 'lackluster Christmas sales'. Have you been to malls lately?


I will take it one day at a time, because I am often wrong in these calls.



Thanks hiker. Always enjoy your posts.

I am long Qs, but it is a different Q (QID). :)
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#5 dcengr

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:40 PM

If you've got a chart for the price pattern (or anything else0, it would be nice if you could post it. A lot of us are visual types.
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#6 bighouse1006

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:44 PM

Could you reference that price pattern? Thanks

#7 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:47 PM

Posted Image

#8 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:02 PM

Posted Image

#9 Net

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:03 PM

Posted in wrong thread... moved Net

Edited by Net, 21 December 2006 - 03:05 PM.


#10 jawndissedi

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:26 PM

Most of us are familiar with the saying about every bull equity maket having a copper roof, right? Here's what the copper market looked like at the end of last week (courtesy of Mish Shedlock). Today, it closed at 287.00:

Posted Image

Edited by jawndissedi, 21 December 2006 - 03:28 PM.

Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.