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Qs 36.5 in two weeks??


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#1 greenie

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:18 PM

People do not like me forecasting real estate prices. So, let me stick to Qs. I am seeing a pattern. It can take Qs to 36.5 in 15-16 days (counting trading days, not holidays). Last part of the decline will be sharp and after new year. I do not have as much confidence in this call as the forecast of California real estate prices (at least 70% drop).
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#2 dcengr

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:20 PM

Predictions without analysis on how you derived it is useless...
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#3 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:21 PM

brave FF call, greenie... fyi, for those of us that take it one day at a time: QQQQ supports at: 43.34 42.67 note the 5ma vs 20 ma on the 13, 60, 240 minute charts and the daily....have started using Jae Yu's trading system which is the 3 shift 3 ema vs the 5 sma and the 20 sma on the various time periods, 3, 13, 60 minute and longer. I have been short QQQQ's for a while...not predicting what the next move will be, but am staying short unless stopped out at 43.67 which will take me out with a good profit. his book is at undergroundtrader.com may forget about stop and just close this short today..we will see.

Edited by hiker, 21 December 2006 - 02:30 PM.

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#4 greenie

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:37 PM

Predictions without analysis on how you derived it is useless...



Combination of several things -
price pattern and momentum on Qs:
Looks like there will be downside acceleration now.


VXN:
double bottom with divergence in momentum. upside acceleration now? I have similar sell signal on TRINQ.

leaders:
Look at AAPL, GOOG, SOX.


sentiment:
when Qs dropped today, there was some temporary rise in $CPC, but now it seems like dip buyers back in action. Down day and more call buying (CPC down) - what does that tell you? Nobody expects a decline.


seasonality:
it is out of whack this year. right time for a drop.

general context:
My calculation shows recession has started. 4th quarter GDP growth will be 0% that will be revised downward.

News context:
News for the decline will be 'lackluster Christmas sales'. Have you been to malls lately?


I will take it one day at a time, because I am often wrong in these calls.



Thanks hiker. Always enjoy your posts.

I am long Qs, but it is a different Q (QID). :)
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#5 dcengr

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:40 PM

If you've got a chart for the price pattern (or anything else0, it would be nice if you could post it. A lot of us are visual types.
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#6 bighouse1006

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:44 PM

Could you reference that price pattern? Thanks

#7 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 02:47 PM

Posted Image
why is it important to wear sunglasses, even on cloudy days?

UV damage to the eyes is cumulative during the lifetime

blindness from UV damage to the eyes is preventable for the current younger generations -

elvis wore shades - by the Cleveland Clinic

#8 hiker

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:02 PM

Posted Image
why is it important to wear sunglasses, even on cloudy days?

UV damage to the eyes is cumulative during the lifetime

blindness from UV damage to the eyes is preventable for the current younger generations -

elvis wore shades - by the Cleveland Clinic

#9 Net

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:03 PM

Posted in wrong thread... moved Net

Edited by Net, 21 December 2006 - 03:05 PM.


#10 jawndissedi

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Posted 21 December 2006 - 03:26 PM

Most of us are familiar with the saying about every bull equity maket having a copper roof, right? Here's what the copper market looked like at the end of last week (courtesy of Mish Shedlock). Today, it closed at 287.00:

Posted Image

Edited by jawndissedi, 21 December 2006 - 03:28 PM.

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