18 replies to this topic

[stocks]

ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 9/29

-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4

http://www.businesscycle.com/

ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by subscription.

As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."

OTOH

... bear markets ... almost always begin when the rate of growth in real GDP is at or still close to its peak ... and continue as the rate of growth continues to slow.* By the time Real GDP is approaching “zero” growth or an actual decline (“recession”), most of the economic damage has been done, it is far too late for businesses to adjust, and the bear market is largely over.


http://www.aheadofth....com/04-01.html

[tuffy88]

stocks The latest (last Friday) ECRI report is very bullish on 2007 for growth without much inflation. I also subscribe and read it every Friday. It's record on predicting growth and inflation has been very good. Hope they are right again, but will let the market tell me what it is going to do. Charles

[Islander]

Our firm runs money based on several indicators, and ECRI is one of the better data streams we process into a forecast. Our 2007 forcast is bullish. The only black cloud we see is oil and Russia; they go together. We are concerned there may be route in the Russian 2008 elections and oil prices will commence to rise in mid 2007 in contemplation of Gazprom cutting off energy to western Europe. That could mean 100 dollar bbl crude. We would go short on any evidence that might be happening. We will be fully invested after 1/15/07 Islander.

[senorBS]

ECRI weekly leading indicator growth starting from 9/29

-.6
-1.0
-.5
-.1
-.1
+.3
+1.2
+1.6
+1.5
+1.8
+2.8
+3.4

http://www.businesscycle.com/

ECRI monitors over 100 proprietary cyclical indexes for major economies covering more than 85% of world GDP. We regularly interpret this data to form a sophisticated cyclical forecast which is available by cription.

As The Economist magazine recently noted, "ECRI is perhaps the only organization to give advance warning of each of the past three recessions; just as impressive, it has never issued a false alarm."

OTOH

... bear markets ... almost always begin when the rate of growth in real GDP is at or still close to its peak ... and continue as the rate of growth continues to slow.* By the time Real GDP is approaching “zero” growth or an actual decline (“recession”), most of the economic damage has been done, it is far too late for businesses to adjust, and the bear market is largely over.


http://www.aheadofth....com/04-01.html

M3 is going NORTE muy grande, I'd say the spigots are wide open and a rising tide of money =

http://www.nowandfut...slides/m3b.html

BS is beautiful

Senor

[jawndissedi]

Well, I guess this time it will just have to be different then, won't it?





And in light of the fact that homeownership is now >5% above its long-term historical mean, the significance of the current downturn should be considerably amplified.

[selecto]

Well, I guess its time tio throw this one up again. [attachment=5120:attachment]

[tuffy88]

It is always different. This time is no exception. Charles

[jawndissedi]

It is always different. This time is no exception.

Charles

In the narrowest, most literal, and least interesting sense of the word: of course, the future will be "different" from the past. Now if you have some substantive insight into why the impact of housing on the economy should be discounted during the year ahead, perhaps you'll be so kind as to share it with us. But if the only point of your reply was to cavil about my choice of words . . . . well, moved by the spirit of the season, I'll refrain from responding in kind.

[selecto]

[tuffy88]

jawdissedi, No offense ment. What I did mean is that in the economy or markets each time is a difference roll of the dice. The dice have no memory. What happens before has no effect on what will happen now. There is no way the variables will be the same in each case. And they would have to be for the past to be a map of the future. The trouble in the housing sector may or may not roil the general economy. At this time no one knows. The point I am making is that the future is unknowable and looking for a pattern based on what happened in the past is a useless endevor. It is a random walk. Charles