Jump to content



Photo

Gold Charts


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,144 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 01:56 PM

The daily, weekly, and monthly charts all suggest that gold is snapping back to the declining tops line that had been controlling the price pattern for the last 15 years.

Ultimate support should be seen at around the $355 to $360 level where not only do we have the apex intersection point of the symmetrical triangle providing support on the daily chart - but this is also where the 200 day EMA is at this time (not shown @ 353.18).

This is also the area in which snapback support should be seen on the weekly and monthly charts as well.

Because the daily chart is rather suspect - we also have to be on our toes that a rally failure and a larger retracement is under way. This would, of course, throw the price pattern back into the monthly downtrend channel which would not be a positive development for it would set off several negative technical patterns at this juncture.

But let's go for the positive in all of this and see what happens another $10 to $15 lower from here...with the mining stocks more than likely providing the clues as we go.

Fib

http://stockcharts.c...14833937,Y].gif

http://stockcharts.c...15142210,Y].gif

http://stockcharts.c...J8606826,Y].gif

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#2 swanstkdh

swanstkdh

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 896 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 03:17 PM

thanks for the charts. i cannot tell which wave most of the pms i hold are in. the charts are a big help. swanstkdh

#3 btreehouse

btreehouse

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 213 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 03:53 PM

Posted Image

#4 swanstkdh

swanstkdh

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 896 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 05:32 PM

fib- could the sudden running of the stops be a fake by the locals in the pit to get their inventory up for the next anticipated move up?

#5 fib_1618

fib_1618

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,144 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 08:06 PM

swanstkdh -

As far as wave counts on the mining stocks - I believe this is an area in which watching how the stocks intereact with the metals themselves is more important to any wave count consideration because of the volatility that comes with this sector of the market - and this can play all sorts of tricks on you - especially in corrections against the impulsive trend.

I have found that the stocks lead the metal by a 2 day period based on daily trading - and price pattern wise by about a week.

If this is the case - there should be a couple of days consolidation in the metals this week - and then another move down. Now if the metal stocks hold firm during that next move down in the metal (which they seemed to do a pretty good job on Friday in spite of the large move down in the metals) - then it goes back to a case of searching for the leading stocks that resisted the most recent decline as these should be the stocks that will probably lead up and out of this correctional period.

As far as running the stops...I really couldn't answer that question. But I will say that all of us technicians look at the same thing by and large - and based on the charts above - it didn't take much for the majority to just take the money off the table initially and it just steam rolled into the close.

And to my buddy Tree - if these counts are correct - one more move up - most likely in concert with the 8 year cycle - would do it for wave E - and it would fit the exhuberance that E waves bring - especially in wave 3 of C of E which was accompanied by the war with Iraq.

The only potential problem I see in the longer term count is the amount of time wave D took to unfold...it doesn't look balanced. But it very well could fit because of the way we rallied out of the $255 bottom - so it's a legitimate consideration.

Thanks for the charts.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

Technical Watch Subscriptions



 


#6 btreehouse

btreehouse

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 213 posts

Posted 05 October 2003 - 10:21 PM

And to my buddy Tree - if these counts are correct - one more move up - most likely in concert with the 8 year cycle - would do it for wave E - and it would fit the exhuberance that E waves bring - especially in wave 3 of C of E which was accompanied by the war with Iraq. The only potential problem I see in the longer term count is the amount of time wave D took to unfold...it doesn't look balanced. But it very well could fit because of the way we rallied out of the $255 bottom - so it's a legitimate consideration.

Thanks for the charts.

Fib



Hi Fib,

That is just one of several suggested counts. I offer another chart with count below. I don't feel its necessary to squabble to much on the counts because, unfortunately for the gold bugs, the message is the same. Gold is not yet in the much awaited bull market. As for the gold market topping a little later to more satisfy the apparent 8 year tops pattern, we'll just have to wait and see. IMO, I think the top is coming early this time. The first top was in Jan 1980, the second was Dec 1987 (7 years 11 months), the third Feb 1996 (8 years 2months), so this top being the fourth might be early. December 2003 would be a good early match. But as a speculator myself, I think I'll let someone chase the top.

Regards,

Tree

Posted Image